SEC Tournament Scenarios: Kentucky gets help from Vanderbilt

As expected, Kentucky lost to Alabama last night, but the Cats did get some help in the SEC Tournament seeding race. Vanderbilt’s win over Ole Miss and Oklahoma’s win over Mississippi State kept Kentucky within striking distance of the Rebels and Bulldogs in the standings, which could be the difference between playing on Wednesday and Thursday in Nashville.

With four games left in the regular season, Ole Miss is No. 7 in the standings at 8-6, followed by Kentucky and Mississippi State at 7-7. The Cats have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulldogs thanks to the win in Starkville. That means if the SEC Tournament started today, Kentucky would be the No. 8 seed, playing the first game on Thursday. As we head into the final stretch, the Mississippi teams could have a huge impact on what happens.

Before we get into the projections, here’s a closer look at the current standings, and each team’s remaining games. Auburn remains in the driver’s seat to win the SEC regular season title. The Tigers come to Lexington on Saturday.

Current Standings – Feb. 23

RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	GAMES BACK	OVERALL	REMAINING
1	Auburn	13-1	–	25-2	OM, @UK, @TAMU, AL
2	Florida	11-3	2	24-3	@GA, TAMU, @AL, OM
3	Alabama	11-3	2	22-5	MSU, @TN, FL, @AU
4	Tennessee	9-5	4	22-5	@LSU, AL, @OM, SC
5	Texas A&M	9-5	4	20-7	VU, @FL, AU, @LSU
6	Missouri	9-5	4	20-7	SC, @VU, @OK, UK
7	Ole Miss	8-6	5	19-8	@AU, OK, TN, @FL
8	Kentucky	7-7	6	18-9	@OK, AU, LSU, @MZ
9	Mississippi State	7-7	6	19-8	@AL, LSU, TX, @AR
10	Vanderbilt	6-8	7	18-9	@TAMU, MZ, AR, @GA
11	Arkansas	5-9	8	16-11	TX, @SC, @VU, MS
12	Texas	5-9	8	16-11	@AR, GA, @MS, OK
13	Georgia	4-10	9	16-11	FL, @TX, @SC, VU
14	Oklahoma	4-10	9	17-10	UK, @OM, MZ, @TX
15	LSU	3-11	10	14-13	TN, @MS, @UK, TAMU
16	South Carolina	1-13	12	11-16	@MZ, AR, GA, @TN

Projected SEC Standings – Feb. 23

As Saturday showed us, a lot can change as teams, like Vanderbilt and Arkansas, fight to stay on the NCAA Tournament bubble. KenPom predicts Kentucky will split its remaining four games, beating Oklahoma and LSU and losing to Auburn and Missouri.

Looking at KenPom’s projected final SEC standings (with tiebreakers), the Cats would be tied with Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9-9 in the standings. The Bulldogs would win the three-way tiebreaker due to its two wins over the Rebels, clinching the No. 7 seed. Kentucky would get the No. 8 seed with a 1-1 record against the other two teams. Ole Miss would be pushed to Wednesday with the No. 9 seed due to its two losses vs. Mississippi State.

1. Auburn: 16-2
2. Florida: 14-4
3. Alabama: 13-5
4. Tennessee: 12-6
5. Missouri 12-6
6. Texas A&M: 11-7
7. Mississippi State: 9-9
8. Kentucky: 9-9
9. Ole Miss: 9-9
10. Vanderbilt: 8-10
11. Arkansas: 7-11
12. Texas: 7-11
13. Georgia: 6-12
14. Oklahoma: 5-13
15. LSU: 4-14
16. South Carolina: 2-16

Here’s a closer look at the projections for all three teams. Ole Miss has the hardest road left, with KenPom predicting just one win remaining, vs. Oklahoma. Mississippi State’s game vs. Arkansas on March 8 is one to watch. We’ll want to cheer for the Razorbacks in that one to keep Mississippi State in a three-way tie with Kentucky and Ole Miss. The Cats would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rebels due to the loss in Oxford.

Team	Ole Miss	Kentucky	Mississippi State
Current SEC record	8-6	7-7	7-7
	at No. 1 Auburn (L, 12%)	at Oklahoma (W, 57%)	at No. 4 Alabama (L, 21%)
	Oklahoma (W, 75%)	Auburn (L, 35%)	LSU (W, 85%)
	No. 6 Tennessee (L, 39%)	LSU (W, 90%)	Texas (W, 73%)
	at No, 2 Florida (L, 16%)	at No. 15 Missouri (L, 86-82)	at Arkansas (L, 44%)
KenPom Projected Final SEC Record	9-9	9-9	9-9

Vanderbilt is another team to keep an eye on. KenPom projects the Commodores to lose three of their remaining four games (at Texas A&M -L; vs. Missouri – L; vs. Arkansas – W; at Georgia – L). Things could get messy if Vandy wins one of those and enters a three-way tiebreaker with Kentucky and another team. Shoutout for the win over Ole Miss, Commodores, but don’t get too crazy.

What happens if Kentucky wins one of the two games KenPom projects it to lose, vs. Auburn or at Missouri? The Cats could climb to the No. 7 seed, or even higher if they win out. Lose one or both of the games you’re supposed to win, at Oklahoma or vs. LSU, and you’re almost certainly playing on Wednesday.

Still lots of basketball to play. Kentucky needs to take care of business and hope the rest of the chips fall in their favor.

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