Kentucky's SEC Tournament scenarios following loss to Arkansas

After Kentucky’s loss to Arkansas and Tennessee’s win over Auburn, the Cats may be looking at the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament. Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee are now all tied for second in the SEC standings behind Auburn. Even if the Cats win out, beating Ole Miss on Tuesday and Florida on Saturday, they’ll need some help from LSU to get the No. 2 seed. Let’s break it down.

Right now, let’s only worry about the top four teams in the league standings, because after that, there’s a considerable drop-off. Currently, Auburn leads the league with a 13-3 record. From there, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee are tied at 12-4. Using tiebreakers, Arkansas wins out with a 2-0 record in pool play. Tennessee and Kentucky both have 1-2 records in pool play, but the Vols’ win over No. 1 seed Auburn today gives them the nod.

1. Auburn (13-3)
2. Arkansas (12-4)
3. Tennessee (12-4)
4. Kentucky (12-4)

What happens from here? Here are the remaining schedules for each:

Auburn (13-3)

• Mar. 2: at Mississippi State
• Mar. 5: South Carolina

Arkansas (12-4)

• Mar. 2: LSU
• Mar. 5: at Tennessee

Tennessee (12-4)

• Mar. 1: at Georgia
• Mar. 5: Arkansas

Kentucky (12-4)

• Mar. 1: Ole Miss
• Mar. 5: at Florida

Obviously, Auburn has the easiest path left. Let’s assume they win their remaining games and finish 15-3 in SEC play. Let’s also assume Kentucky beats Ole Miss and Florida to finish 14-4. That leaves us with Tennessee and Arkansas, who play each other in Knoxville to close out the year. If the Vols beat Georgia and Arkansas, they will be tied with Kentucky at 14-4 and own the tiebreaker due to the win over Auburn. If Tennessee beats Georgia and loses to Arkansas, the Vols will fall to the No. 4 seed. Arkansas and Kentucky will be tied at 14-4 and the Razorbacks will get the No. 2 seed, leaving the Cats No. 3. I won’t even entertain the possibility of Tennessee losing to Georgia, because if that happens, Rick Barnes needs to be fired.

Right now, it seems the only realistic scenario in which Kentucky can get the No. 2 seed is if Arkansas beats Tennessee but loses to LSU. It could also happen if Auburn loses at Mississippi State and at home to South Carolina, but that doesn’t seem likely. So…geaux Tigers?

John Calipari on Kentucky’s SEC schedule

Don’t think the SEC Tournament seeding implications of today’s game were lost on John Calipari. In his postgame chat with Tom Leach, Cal aired his complaints about Kentucky’s SEC schedule. The Cats drew Auburn and Arkansas on the road without return games in Rupp, going 0-2 in those outings.

“The seeding does matter but the problem is, all of our road games are the best teams in the league. We didn’t get them at our place. We got all of the best road teams on the road, which is going to have our seed probably lower than we want but we’re going to have a double-bye. And the other thing is, you could say, ‘Well, they were a No. 4 seed in their own league.’ Yeah, this may be the best league. So, the teams that we’re playing with, either beating or right there, it’s a big deal. I don’t think it should hurt — our NET isn’t going to be crushed by this so we will see.”

I’ve been looking for a chance to try Cuban coffee and I hear Tampa’s got some. The Cats may have just given me the opportunity.