Kentucky is in the driver's seat to grab No. 3 seed at SEC Tournament

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On3 image — (Photo by Brett Carlsen | Getty Images)

Things can change quickly in college basketball. In a week’s time, Kentucky went from the outside looking in to having a firm grip on an NCAA Tournament at-large bid with four games remaining in the regular season.

Kentucky brought home wins against Mississippi State and Tennessee this week to give John Calipari’s squad two more Quadrant 1 wins to put on the resume. But the Cats also improved their SEC Tournament seeding.

The Wildcats have a great chance to lock up a double-bye over the next two weeks with a No. 3 seed in Nashville appearing to be the ceiling. Let’s dive into some projections.

Projected final standings

Following last night’s results, every team in the SEC has just four conference games left in the regular season over the next two weeks. With 14 games of data (plus non-conference play), KenPom has run the numbers and spit out projected standings. Let’s check in on where things stand.

Alabama (16-2)
Texas A&M (14-4)
Tennessee (12-6)
Kentucky (11-7)
Vanderbilt (10-8)
Auburn (10-8)
Missouri (10-8)
Florida (10-8)
Arkansas (9-9)
Mississippi State (8-10)
Georgia (7-11)
South Carolina (4-14)
Ole Miss (3-15)
LSU (2-16)

At a projected conference record of 11-7, Kentucky finds itself in sole possession of the No. 4 seed and just one game back of Tennessee. However, there is a four-way tie at 10-8 as we could see a lot of movement at the No. 3 through No. 9 spots over the next two weeks.

Kentucky owns important double-bye tiebreakers

With Saturday’s win over Tennessee, the Wildcats now owned a combined 3-0 record over the Vols and Texas A&M. That will matter in any tiebreaker scenarios.

After an upset win on the road against Missouri, Texas A&M (20-7, 12-2) has a legit chance to win the regular season crown as the Aggies are just one game back of Alabama with four games to play. Buzz Williams’ squad is three games up in the loss column over both Kentucky and Tennessee. A&M is a projected underdog in three more games, but barring a total meltdown this squad should have the No. 2 seed wrapped up shortly with a possible chance to win the league title when Alabama comes to Reed Arena on March 4.

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That leaves Kentucky and Tennessee battling for the No. 3 seed. The Vols and Cats have identical 9-5 SEC records with four games to play. UK owns the head-to-head tiebreaker while UT still has to go to Alabama and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Kentucky should be a betting favorite in every remaining game outside of the trip to Bud Walton Arena to face Arkansas in the season finale.

That tiebreaker could definitely come into play between Kentucky and Tennessee. The Cats have a real chance to be the No. 3 seed for the second year in a row at the SEC Tournament.

Vanderbilt keeps winning

On the last day of January, Alabama dropped 101 points on Vanderbilt as Jerry Stackhouse’s team fell to 10-12 with a 3-6 record in conference play. At that point, the Commodores looked destined to start play at the SEC Tournament on Wednesday once again.

However, Vandy has found some magic. The Commodores are a perfect 5-0 in February with three Quadrant 1 victories. The small private school with a weird arena is now officially on the NCAA Tournament bubble with one more Quadrant 1 opportunity against Kentucky on March 1.

This surprising run has Vanderbilt up to a projected No. 5 seed at the SEC Tournament with a path to stay in the middle of the conference. Vandy has very winnable games against LSU and Florida this week as Stackhouse has this group playing inspired basketball. According to Bart Torvik, the Dores are No. 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency since Feb. 1 as this group is getting buckets in bunches.

Vanderbilt could be a tough out in Nashville.