Kentucky's SEC Tournament scenarios with three games left

Last night’s win over LSU helped the Cats maintain their hold on second place in the SEC and clinch a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. After the midweek games, the top four in the SEC standings remain the same: Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee. On Saturday, we’ll get a preview of what the semifinals could be based on the current standings: Auburn (No. 1) vs. Tennessee (No. 4) and Kentucky (No. 2) vs. Arkansas (No. 3).

Still three games to go. A misstep along the way could move the Cats from the No. 2 seed (early Friday night game) to the No. 3 seed (late Friday night game). Before we get into those scenarios, here are the current standings, seeds, and bracket.

Current Standings – Feb. 24

TEAM	CONF	PCT	GB	OVR
Auburn	13-2	0.867	–	25-3
Kentucky	12-3	0.800	1	23-5
Arkansas	11-4	0.733	2	22-6
Tennessee	11-4	0.733	2	20-7
Alabama	8-7	0.533	5	18-10
South Carolina	8-7	0.533	5	17-10
LSU	7-8	0.467	6	19-9
Florida	7-8	0.467	6	17-11
Mississippi State	7-8	0.467	6	16-12
Texas A&M	6-9	0.400	7	17-11
Vanderbilt	6-9	0.400	7	14-13
Ole Miss	4-11	0.267	9	13-15
Missouri	4-11	0.267	9	10-18
Georgia	1-14	0.067	12	6-22

Seeds Based On Current Standings

1. Auburn (13-2, .867)
2. Kentucky (12-3, .800)
3. Arkansas (11-4, .733) – Beat Tennessee
4. Tennessee (11-4, .733) – Lost to Arkansas
5. Alabama (8-7, .533) – Beat Arkansas (No. 3 seed)
6. South Carolina (8-7, .533) – Lost to Arkansas (No. 3 seed)
7. LSU (7-8, .467) – 2-0 record in pool play
8. Florida (7-8, .467) – 1-1 record in pool play
9. Mississippi State (7-8, .467) – 0-2 record in pool play
10. Vanderbilt (6-9, .400) – Beat Texas A&M
11. Texas A&M (6-9, .400) – Lost to Vanderbilt
12. Missouri (4-11, .267) – Beat Ole Miss
13. Ole Miss (4-11, .267) – Lost to Missouri
14. Georgia (1-14, .067)

For a rundown of SEC tiebreakers, click here.

Bracket as of Feb. 24:

Here are the remaining schedules for the current top four seeds and KenPom‘s projections for each game.

Auburn

• Feb. 26: at Tennessee (71-68 L, 39%)
• Mar. 2: at Mississippi State (73-69 W, 65%)
• Mar. 5: South Carolina (79-64 W, 91%)

Kentucky

• Feb. 26: at Arkansas (76-73 W, 60%)
• Mar. 1: Ole Miss (79-62 W, 94%)
• Mar. 5: at Florida (75-68 W, 73%)

Arkansas

• Feb. 26: Kentucky (76-73 L, 40%)
• Mar. 2: LSU (70-67 W, 60%)
• Mar. 5: at Tennessee (73-66 L, 26%)

Tennessee

• Feb. 26: Auburn (71-68 W, 61%)
• Mar. 1: at Georgia (81-65 W, 93%)
• Mar. 5: Arkansas (73-66 W, 74%)

If these projections hold, Kentucky and Auburn would be tied for first place in the SEC, with Auburn holding the tiebreaker based on the head-to-head matchup. Tennessee would get the No. 3 seed and Arkansas the No. 4 seed.

If Kentucky loses to Arkansas, beats Ole Miss and Florida, and Tennessee loses to Auburn, Kentucky will still get the No. 2 seed. If Kentucky loses to Arkansas, beats Ole Miss and Florida, and Tennessee wins out, the Cats move down to the No. 3 seed. If Kentucky loses to Arkansas, beats Ole Miss and Florida and Tennessee loses to Arkansas, the Cats will get the No. 3 seed behind the Razorbacks.

Shew. Just keep winning.