Kentucky's projected SEC Tournament path with 3 games left

With three games remaining, the SEC standings are a bit of a mess. Kentucky still has a chance of securing the double-bye in Nashville, but there are several factors at play.

A South Carolina loss to Texas A&M last night would have helped. The Gamecocks pulled off a two-point win in College Station to take sole possession of third place behind Alabama and Tennessee. South Carolina holds a head-to-head tiebreaker vs. Kentucky thanks to the Gamecocks’ win in Columbia last month. They still have three tough games remaining: Florida, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. Losses by Lamont Paris’ crew could help Kentucky avoid playing on Thursday at the SEC Tournament. Three would really seal the deal.

The good news is Kentucky’s win over Alabama gives the Cats an edge in tiebreakers; in fact, if the tournament started today, it would give Kentucky the No. 4 seed over Florida. The Cats would be playing the winner of No. 5 seed Florida vs. No. 12 seed Arkansas/No. 13 seed Vanderbilt on Friday afternoon around 3:30 p.m. ET. How South Carolina finishes the season could dictate if Kentucky is the No. 4, No. 5, or even No. 6 seed. Saturday’s showdown between the Gamecocks and the Gators is significant.

Before we get into the nitty gritty of those scenarios, here are the current standings and seedings.

Current Standings – February 29

TEAM	CONFERENCE	GAMES BACK	OVERALL
Tenneessee	12-3	—	22-6
Alabama	12-3	—	20-8
South Carolina	11-4	1	23-5
Kentucky	10-5	2	20-8
Florida	10-5	2	20-8
Auburn	10-5	2	21-7
Mississippi State	8-7	4	19-9
LSU	7-8	5	15-13
Ole Miss	6-9	6	19-9
Texas A&M	6-9	6	15-13
Georgia	5-10	7	15-13
Arkansas	5-10	7	14-14
Vanderbilt	3-12	9	8-20
Missouri	0-15	12	8-20

Seeds Based On Current Standings

1. Tennessee (12-3)
2. Alabama (12-3)
3. South Carolina (11-4)
4. Kentucky (10-5)
5. Florida (10-5)
6. Auburn (10-5)
7. Mississippi State (8-7)
8. LSU (7-8)
9. Ole Miss (6-9)
10. Texas A&M (6-9)
11. Georgia (5-10)
12. Arkansas (5-10)
13. Vanderbilt (3-12)
14. Missouri (0-15)

KenPom Projections for Final Three Games

Here are the remaining games for the top six teams in the standings, with KenPom‘s projections for each matchup in parentheses. Auburn has the easiest remaining slate. If the Tigers win out, they could take the No. 3 seed in Nashville.

• Tennessee: at No. 14 Alabama (L), at No. 18 South Carolina (W), vs. No. 16 Kentucky (W)
• Alabama: vs. No. 4 Tennessee (W), at No. 24 Florida (W), vs. Arkansas (W)
• South Carolina: vs. No. 24 Florida (W), vs. No. 4 Tennessee (L), at Mississippi State (L)
• Kentucky: vs. Arkansas (W), vs. Vanderbilt (W), at No. 4 Tennessee (L)
• Florida: at No. 18 South Carolina (L), vs. No. 14 Alabama (L), at Vanderbilt (W)
• Auburn: vs. Mississippi State (W), at Missouri (W), vs. Georgia (W)

Here are the seedings based on those results. Kentucky’s loss to South Carolina boots the Cats to the second game on Thursday.

1. Alabama (15-3)
2. Tennessee (14-4)
3. Auburn (13-5)
4. South Carolina (12-6)
5. Kentucky (12-6)
6. Florida (11-7)
7. Mississippi State (10-8)
8. LSU (9-9)
9. Ole Miss (8-10)
10. Georgia (7-11)
11. Arkansas (6-12)
12. Texas A&M (6-12)
13. Vanderbilt (4-14)
14. Missouri (1-17)

Bracket based on Projected Standings

Without getting too into the weeds, here’s how that could change:

Kentucky wins out: If the Cats take care of business at home vs. Arkansas and Vanderbilt and knock off Tennessee in Knoxville, they would get either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in Nashville based on what happens Saturday between Tennessee and Alabama.

South Carolina loses out: Florida vs. South Carolina on Saturday is big. KenPom projects the Gamecocks to win that one by one point; if the Gators get the victory and South Carolina loses its games vs. Tennessee and Mississippi State, they would fall below Kentucky and Florida in the standings. The Cats own the tiebreaker over the Gators thanks to the win over Alabama. If South Carolina loses to Florida but beats Tennessee or Mississippi State, Kentucky could fall to the No. 6 seed due to the round-robin tiebreaker with the Gators and the Gamecocks.

Tennessee wins out: If Tennessee beats Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky, they would pass the Crimson Tide in the standings and Kentucky would get the No. 4 seed over Florida (if the Gators beat the Gamecocks).

Auburn goes 2-1: As mentioned, Auburn has the easiest path remaining of the top six teams; however, if the Tigers lose to either Mississippi State, Missouri, or Georgia and tie with Kentucky and/or another team in the standings, the Cats would have the edge in tiebreakers, which could give them the No. 3 seed.

So, win out OR root for Tennessee to win out, South Carolina to lose out, and/or Auburn to stumble. Let’s go with option No. 1.