Choose Your Own Adventure: SEC Tournament Projections

Kentucky’s loss to Vanderbilt last night threw a wrench into the SEC Tournament scenarios. Heading into the game, the Cats were in the driver’s seat for the No. 3 seed in Nashville, but now, must beat Arkansas or hope that Tennessee and/or Missouri lose on Saturday to get the double-bye. If Kentucky loses to Arkansas, Tennessee beats Auburn, and Missouri beats Ole Miss, we’re staring at a Thursday afternoon game vs. the winner of South Carolina and Ole Miss for the chance to play Missouri on Friday, and eventually, Alabama in the semifinals. Great!

Before we worry about that, here are the updated SEC Tournament scenarios for Kentucky heading into the final game. Kentucky controls its destiny in that a win vs. Arkansas on Saturday means the No. 3 seed regardless of any other results.

Several paths are still in play, but which is the most likely? According to the computers, the worst one. Both KenPom and BartTorvik predict Kentucky will end up with the No. 5 seed based on Saturday’s outcomes.

KenPom, BartTorvik Projections for Saturday’s Games

• 12:00 PM (CBS): No. 2 Alabama at No. 24 Texas A&M
  • KenPom: Alabama 61% W
  • BartTorvik: Alabama 56% W
• 1:00 PM (SECN): Georgia at South Carolina
  • KenPom: Georgia 52% W
  • BartTorvik: Georgia 51% W
• 2:00 PM (CBS): No. 23 Kentucky at Arkansas
  • KenPom: Arkansas 66% W
  • BartTorvik: Arkansas 72% W
• 2:00 PM (ESPN): No. 12 Tennessee at Auburn
  • KenPom: Tennessee 60% W
  • BartTorvik: Tennessee 58% W
• 3:30 PM (SECN): Ole Miss at Missouri
  • KenPom: Missouri 80% W
  • BartTorvik: Missouri 81% W
• 6:00 PM (SECN): LSU at Florida
  • KenPom: Florida 84% W
  • BartTorvik: Florida 84% W
• 8:30 PM (SECN): Mississippi State at Vanderbilt
  • KenPom: Vanderbilt 50% W (1-point)
  • BartTorvik: Vanderbilt 55% W

Here are the final projected standings and tournament seedings using those results:

1. Alabama: 17-1
2. Texas A&M: 14-4
3. Tennessee: 12-6
4. Missouri: 11-7
5. Kentucky: 11-7
6. Vanderbilt: 11-7
7. Auburn: 9-9
8. Arkansas: 9-9
9. Florida 9-9
10. Mississippi State: 8-10
11. Georgia: 7-11
12. South Carolina: 3-15
13. Ole Miss: 3-15
14. LSU: 2-16

Obviously, the No. 5 seed at the SEC Tournament is not what we want, but it’s what will happen if Kentucky loses to Arkansas, Tennessee beats Auburn, and Missouri beats Ole Miss. Here’s what that bracket would look like:

Yuck, right?

Let’s look at some other, happier paths.

No. 3 Seed: Kentucky beats Arkansas, Tennessee beats Auburn, Missouri beats Ole Miss

If Auburn beats Tennessee, the Vols will swap places with Mizzou, making Mizzou the No. 4 seed and Tennessee the No. 5 seed (as long as the Tigers don’t lose to Ole Miss).

No. 4 Seed: Kentucky loses to Arkansas, Auburn beats Tennessee, Missouri beats Ole Miss

If Tennessee beats Auburn but Ole Miss beats Missouri, the teams would swap places in the bracket, with Tennessee becoming the No. 3 seed and Missouri moving down to the No. 6 seed.

No. 3 Seed: If Kentucky loses to Arkansas and both Tennessee and Missouri lose

If Vanderbilt loses to Mississippi State, a three-way tie for fifth shuffles the middle up again:

Based on these brackets, which path do you like the most?

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