Kentucky's SEC Tournament scenarios following Vanderbilt loss

Kentucky could have clinched the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament with a win over Vanderbilt. That did not happen, so now, it all comes down to Saturday’s regular-season finale at Arkansas.

With the 68-66 loss to the Commodores, Kentucky is now 20-10 on the season, 11-6 in SEC play. That puts them in a tie for third in the standings with Tennessee. The Cats own that tiebreaker, of course, but with one game left, several scenarios are still in play.

Here are the SEC standings following tonight’s games:

TEAM	CONFERENCE	GAMES BACK	OVERALL
Alabama	16-1	–	26-4
Texas A&M	14-3	2	22-8
Tennessee	11-6	5	22-8
Kentucky	11-6	5	20-10
Missouri	10-7	6	22-8
Vanderbilt	10-7	6	17-13
Auburn	9-8	7	19-11
Mississippi State	8-9	8	20-10
Arkansas	8-9	8	19-11
Florida	8-9	8	15-15
Georgia	6-11	10	16-14
Ole Miss	3-14	13	11-19
South Carolina	3-14	13	10-20
LSU	2-15	14	13-17

…And the remaining schedules of the teams Kentucky is tied with or could be tied with:

• Kentucky (11-6): at Arkansas (Sat., 2:00 PM, CBS)
• Tennessee (11-6): at Auburn (Sat., 2:00 PM, ESPN)
• Missouri (10-7): vs. Ole Miss (Sat., 3:30 PM, SEC Network)
• Vanderbilt (10-7): vs. Mississippi State (Sat., 8:30 PM, SEC Network)

Simply put, if Kentucky wins on Saturday, they are the No. 3 seed in Nashville. Lose, and they could end up anywhere from No. 3 to No. 5.

Let’s break it down.

Beat Arkansas: No. 3 seed

If Kentucky beats Arkansas, they will move to 12-6 and, because the Cats own the tiebreaker vs. Tennessee, clinch the No. 3 seed regardless of what happens with the Volunteers vs. Auburn.

If Tennessee beats Auburn, they get the No. 4 seed; if they lose and Missouri beats Ole Miss, the Tigers get the No. 4 seed and the Vols are pushed down to the No. 5 seed. Vandy could end up as the No. 6 seed, setting up a potential rematch with Kentucky in the semifinals.

Lose to Arkansas: No. 3, No. 4, or No. 5 seed

If Kentucky loses to Arkansas, the Cats still have a chance at the double-bye, but it depends on Tennessee and Missouri.

If Tennessee loses to Auburn and Missouri beats Ole Miss, the Cats, the Tigers, and the Vols would be tied at 11-7. Missouri would take the tiebreaker, Kentucky would be next, and Tennessee third. That would give Kentucky the No. 4 seed, potentially playing No. 5 seed Tennessee in the quarterfinals.

If Tennessee beats Auburn, Kentucky loses to Arkansas, Missouri beats Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt loses to Mississippi State, Tennessee will finish 12-6, taking the No. 3 seed. Missouri and Kentucky would be tied at 11-7, and because the Tigers beat the Cats, they would get the No. 4 seed, booting Kentucky to the No. 5 seed, which means the second game of the first session on Thursday. The result would be the same even if Vanderbilt beats Mississippi State due to tiebreakers.

If Tennessee beats Auburn, Kentucky loses to Arkansas, Ole Miss upsets Missouri, and Vanderbilt loses to Mississippi State, Kentucky will be in sole possession of fourth place in the league and get the No. 4 seed, facing a potential rematch with Missouri in the quarterfinals. If Vanderbilt beats Mississippi State in that scenario, the Cats would still get the No. 4 seed and Vandy the No. 5 seed thanks to Kentucky’s win over Texas A&M.

If Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt all lose on Saturday, wildly, Kentucky would end up with the No. 3 seed because of the tiebreaker over Tennessee.

The easiest way to solve this problem? Beat Arkansas.

Impact on NCAA Tournament seed

Tonight’s loss will be felt on Selection Sunday too. Vanderbilt is currently No. 85 in the NET rankings, making this Kentucky’s second Quad 3 loss of the season, along with the loss at Georgia. The only silver lining here is that Vanderbilt could get a big boost in the NET tomorrow, which may bump tonight’s loss up to Quad 2, and Kentucky’s win over the ‘Dores in Nashville to Quad 1. We’ll find that out in the morning.

Coming into the night, Kentucky was trending as a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If tonight’s loss is still in Quad 3 on Selection Sunday, the Cats would have two Quad 3 losses and one Quad 4 loss. That’s not good, but there are still Quad 1 games remaining to help make up for it. Having Cason Wallace back sure would help.