SEC Tournament Scenarios: Wednesday still in play for Kentucky after win over Vanderbilt

Kentucky took care of business last night vs. Vanderbilt, an essential win as we head into the final stretch of the regular season; however, unless the Cats can pull off an upset in the final five games — or get some help from the teams above them — they may not be able to avoid playing on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament.

If the tournament started today, the Cats would be good, slotted into the No. 8 seed, playing the winner of No. 9 seed Mississippi State and No. 16 seed South Carolina in the first game on Thursday. Auburn is back in the driver’s seat for the regular-season title, with a two-game lead on Alabama and Florida. Missouri has worked its way into the double-bye conversation, now tied with Texas A&M for fourth; however, there’s still a lot of basketball to play.

Before we get into projections, here is where things stand right now, with tiebreakers accounted for.

Current SEC Standings (Feb. 20)

RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	GAMES BACK	OVERALL	REMAINING
1.	Auburn	12-1	–	24-2	GA, OM, @UK, @TAMU, AL
2.	Alabama	10-3	2	21-5	UK, MSU, @TN, FL, @AU
3.	Florida	10-3	2	23-3	@LSU, @GA, TAMU, @AL, OM
4.	Texas A&M	9-4	3	20-6	TN, VU, @FL, AU, @LSU
5.	Missouri	9-4	3	20-6	@AR, SC, @VU, @OK, UK
6.	Tennessee	8-5	4	21-5	@TAMU, @LSU, AL, @OM, SC
7.	Ole Miss	8-5	4	19-7	@VU, @AU, OK, TN, @FL
8.	Kentucky	7-6	5	18-8	@AL, @OK, AU, LSU, @MZ
9.	Mississippi State	7-6	5	19-7	@OK, @AL, LSU, TX, @AR
10.	Vanderbilt	5-8	7	17-9	OM, @TAMU, MZ, AR, @GA
11.	Texas	5-8	7	16-10	@SC, @AR, GA, @MS, OK
12.	Georgia	4-9	8	16-10	@AU, FL, @TX, @SC, VU
13.	Arkansas	4-9	8	15-11	MZ, TX, @SC, @VU, MS
14.	LSU	3-10	9	14-12	FL, TN, @MS, @UK, TAMU
15.	Oklahoma	3-10	9	16-10	MS, UK, @OM, MZ, @TX
16.	South Carolina	0-13	12	10-16	TX, @MZ, AR, GA, @TN

Projected SEC Standings (Feb. 20)

KenPom projects Kentucky to win two of its final five games, at Oklahoma and vs. LSU at home. Looking at KenPom’s projected final SEC standings (with tiebreakers), the Cats would get the No. 9 seed, which would mean playing No. 16 seed South Carolina in the first game Wednesday afternoon.

1. Auburn: 16-2
2. Florida: 14-4
3. Tennessee: 12-6
4. Missouri 12-6
5. Alabama: 12-6
6. Texas A&M: 11-7
7. Mississippi State: 10-8
8. Ole Miss: 10-8
9. Kentucky: 9-9
10. Texas: 8-10
11. Vanderbilt: 7-11
12. Arkansas: 7-11
13. Georgia: 6-12
14. Oklahoma: 5-13
15. LSU: 4-14
16. South Carolina: 1-17

How does Kentucky avoid playing on Wednesday? Even if the Cats pull off an upset in one of the three games they’re projected to lose, they need a team ahead of them to stumble. The issue is Mississippi State, which is surging after back-to-back wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M. The Cats hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, but the Bulldogs have one of the easiest remaining schedules: at Oklahoma, at No. 4 Alabama, vs. LSU, vs. Texas, at Arkansas. We may be rooting for the Sooners and the Razorbacks in those matchups.

Ole Miss has a tougher road (at Vanderbilt, at No. 1 Auburn, Oklahoma, No. 6 Tennessee, at No. 2 Florida) but holds the head-to-head tiebreaker vs. Kentucky. So does Texas, which has a manageable schedule the rest of the way (at South Carolina, at Arkansas, Georgia, at Mississippi State, Oklahoma). That shows you just how big that game in Austin was, and the one vs. Arkansas at Rupp, for that matter.

Put aside potential upsets; if Kentucky loses one or both of the games they’re expected to win (at Oklahoma, LSU), the Cats are almost certain to play on Wednesday, likely as the No. 10 seed in the first game that night. Take care of business (a tall task with injuries) and hope the chips fall in your favor. Last night was a good start.

Saturday’s SEC games

TIME (ET)	AWAY	HOME	TV/STREAMING
12:00 PM	No. 6 Tennessee	No. 7 Texas A&M	ESPN
1:00 PM	No. 21 Mississippi State	Oklahoma	SEC Network
3:30 PM	No. 24 Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	SEC Network
4:00 PM	Georgia	No. 1 Auburn	ESPN
6:00 PM	No. 17 Kentucky	No. 4 Alabama	ESPN
6:00 PM	No. 2 Florida	LSU	SEC Network
8:00 PM	No. 15 Missouri	Arkansas	ESPN
8:30 PM	Texas	South Carolina	SEC Network