SEC Tournament projections have Kentucky well outside double-bye territory

Kentucky’s conference slate is 33.3 percent complete. The Wildcats have 12 games remaining in league play but sit at .500 with a 3-3 record following consecutive losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt. That puts the Cats three games back in the loss column.

Auburn strengthened its grip on the conference title race with a win over Tennessee on the Plains on Saturday night. Meanwhile, Missouri and Texas picked up some big home victories. All of that has combined to have Kentucky looking up to a lot of teams in the conference.

Mark Pope‘s team has some work to do or the SEC Tournament draw could be quite brutal.

Current standings

1. Auburn (6-0)
2. Alabama (6-1)
3. Missouri (5-2)
4. Florida (5-2)
5. Texas A&M (4-3)
6. Mississippi State (4-3)
7. Vanderbilt (4-3)
8. Tennessee (4-3)
9. Ole Miss (4-3)
10. Kentucky (3-3)
11. Texas (3-4)
12. Oklahoma (2-4)
13. Georgia (2-5)
14. LSU (1-5)
15. Arkansas (1-6)
16. South Carolina (0-7)

Kentucky would play Arkansas on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament if the season ended today.

Projected SEC standings

Using KenPom‘s projections, this is what the SEC Tournament field would look like. I used some projected results to find tiebreaker winners. There are logjam at spots 2-4 and 5-8. UK is just one spot ahead of playing on Wednesday.

Kentucky is currently projected to open the SEC Tournament on Thursday afternoon in the 8-9 game with the winner playing Auburn on Friday. A reminder that seeds 10-16 will all play on Wednesday this year in the conference’s new format. Kentucky is a current projected No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament but is not on pace to finish in the top half of its own conference.

1. Auburn (16-2)
2. Tennessee (12-6)
3. Alabama (12-6)
4. Florida (12-6)
5. Mississippi State (10-8)
6. Missouri (10-8)
7. Texas A&M (10-8)
8. Ole Miss (10-8)
9. Kentucky (9-9)
10. Vanderbilt (8-10)
11. Texas (8-10)
12. Georgia (7-11)
13. Oklahoma (7-11)
14. LSU (5-13)
15. Arkansas (5-13)
16. South Carolina (3-15)

Upcoming head-to-head matchups with Auburn (home), Tennessee (2x), Alabama (road), Missouri (road), Ole Miss (road), and Vanderbilt (home) all loom large. The Cats have a chance to stack some important tiebreakers in wins. Kentucky already owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Florida and Mississippi State. All of these could pay off at the end of the year.

There is a lot of basketball left to be played and teams across the league will take losses. Kentucky could move up quickly if they start stacking victories again, but right now the floor appears to be between the No. 9-11 seed line.