Kentucky is separating from play-in round in SEC Tournament seeding race

The latest SEC expansion has grown the league to 16 member institutions. That means Wednesday at the SEC Tournament just got a lot more busy. Teams that finish No. 9 through No. 16 will all be playing on Hump Day in Nashville.

Kentucky is currently distancing themselves from that pack and likely will begin the SEC Tournament with a game on Thursday against the winner of a play-in game on Wednesday.

UK’s big win over Tennessee along with another home loss for Mississippi State has created a gap as the Wildcats still look to chase down Texas A&M, Tennessee, Missouri, and Ole Miss, but the margins are currently slim.

Current standings

1. Alabama (10-1)
2. Auburn (10-1)
3. Florida (8-3)
4. Texas A&M (8-3)
5. Ole Miss (8-4)
6. Missouri (7-4)
7. Tennessee (7-5)
8. Kentucky (6-5)
9. Mississippi State (5-6)
10. Vanderbilt (5-6)
11. Arkansas (4-7)
12. Texas (4-8)
13. Georgia (4-8)
14. Oklahoma (3-8)
15. LSU (1-10)
16. South Carolina (0-11)

A tiebreaker game arrives on Saturday when Alabama hosts Auburn for the biggest game of the year in college basketball. Florida and Texas A&M are lurking two games back with winnable home games on the slate for Saturday. Ole Miss currently has the final double-bye spot but there are four teams just one game back of the Rebels.

Kentucky is one of those four teams with a remaining game against Missouri. The Cats own the tiebreaker over Tennessee, but do not own the tiebreaker against Ole Miss. That Missouri game looms large as does the home game against Vanderbilt next week.

The SEC slate is 61.1 percent complete, and the Cats are in the hunt for a double-bye spot, but will need some help down the stretch.

Projected SEC standings

Using KenPom‘s projections, this is what the SEC Tournament field would look like. I used some projected results to find tiebreaker winners. There are eight teams projected to reach double-digit wins. There is a three-way tie at the No. 5 spot with Kentucky just lurking one game back.

Getting to the No. 5 or No. 6 seed line feels like the ceiling as of now for the Cats, but the double-bye could potentially happen at 11-7 due to UK owning tiebreakers over Texas A&M and Tennessee. The good news is that Kentucky has some cushion between the No. 9 seed with Mississippi State expected to finish two games back. That means the No. 8 seed (currently) looks like the floor for Mark Pope’s bunch.

1. Auburn (15-3)
2. Alabama (14-4)
3. Florida (13-5)
4. Texas A&M (12-6)
5. Tennessee (11-7)
6. Missouri (11-7)
7. Ole Miss (11-7)
8. Kentucky (10-8)
9. Mississippi State (8-10)
10. Vanderbilt (7-11)
11. Arkansas (7-11)
12. Texas (7-11)
13. Georgia (6-12)
14. Oklahoma (6-12)
15. LSU (3-15)
16. South Carolina (2-16)

Kentucky is projected to open the SEC Tournament in the first game on Thursday against the winner of Mississippi State-South Carolina. The winner of that game would face Auburn in the first game on Friday in Nashville. UK is only one game back of the No. 5 seed. There will be a chance to climb the ladder if the Cats can get to 11 conference wins. That means a 5-2 finish the rest of the way.

SEC Schedule

Saturday (Feb. 13)

• Arkansas at No. 8 Texas A&M (Noon | ESPN)
• Vanderbilt at No. 5 Tennessee (1:00 | SEC Network)
• No. 21 Missouri at Georgia (3:30 | SEC Network)
• No. 1 Auburn at No. 2 Alabama (4:00 | ESPN)
• LSU at Oklahoma (6:00 | SEC Network)
• No. 22 Mississippi State at No. 19 Ole Miss (6:00 | ESPN2)
• South Carolina at No. 3 Florida (8:30 | SEC Network)

Tuesday (Feb. 18)

• No. 8 Texas A&M at No. 22 Mississippi State (7:00 | SEC Network)
• Oklahoma at No. 3 Florida (7:00 | ESPN2)
• South Carolina at LSU (9:00 | SEC Network)

Wednesday (Feb. 19)

• Vanderbilt at No. 15 Kentucky (7:00 | SEC Network)
• Arkansas at No. 1 Auburn (9:00 | ESPN)
• No. 2 Alabama at No. 21 Missouri (9:00 | SEC Network)