SEC Tournament Picture: Breaking down every Kentucky seeding scenario

Some good things did happen for the Kentucky basketball program on Tuesday night with five games going on in the Southeastern Conference. The Cats took care of LSU to improve to 9-8 in conference play while Mississippi State and Vanderbilt were both upset at home. Each dropped to 8-9 in conference play. That will at least give the Cats a safe floor since UK owns the tiebreakers over each.

But some not-so-good things happened.

Texas A&M beating Auburn ends a four-game losing streak for the Aggies and gets Buzz Williams‘ team to 10-7 in SEC play with a remaining road game against LSU. That win could take the No. 5 seed off the table for the Cats.

With the picture now clearer, we’re running through all of Kentucky’s remaining seed possibilities in the SEC Tournament. The Cats are mathematically eliminated from securing a double-bye.

No. 5 seed

• Kentucky beats Missouri to improve to 10-8
• Missouri loses to Oklahoma and Kentucky to fall to 10-8
• Texas A&M loses to LSU to fall to 10-8
• Ole Miss loses at least once to fall to 10-8
• Kentucky would win this tiebreaker thanks to pool winning percentage (.667) and a head-to-head win over Missouri

OR

• Kentucky beats Missouri to improve to 10-8
• Missouri loses twice to fall to 10-8
• Texas A&M loses to LSU to fall to 10-8
• Ole Miss loses twice
• Kentucky owns the direct tiebreaker in a three-team tie with Missouri and Texas A&M thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record

No. 6 seed

• Kentucky beats Missouri to improve to 10-8
• Texas A&M beats LSU to improve to 11-7 and secure the No. 5 seed
• Ole Miss loses to Tennessee and Florida to fall to 9-9
• Kentucky would secure the No. 6 seed due to a head-to-head tiebreaker over Missouri

OR

• Missouri beats Oklahoma to improve to 11-6
• Texas A&M loses to LSU to fall to 10-8
• Kentucky beats Missouri to improve to 10-8
• Ole Miss loses twice to fall to 9-9

OR

• Oklahoma beats Missouri
• Kentucky beats Missouri to improve to 10-8
• Texas A&M beats LSU to improve to 11-7 and secure the No. 5 seed
• Ole Miss finishes 1-1 and ends up at 10-8
• Kentucky would win a three-team tiebreaker against Ole Miss and Missouri as long as Florida finishes ahead of Alabama in the SEC standings. The Gators and Tide meet in Gainesville on Wednesday night and are tied in second place at 12-4. If Alabama finishes ahead of Florida, Missouri would win the tiebreaker due to a head-to-win over Alabama and Ole Miss.

No. 7 seed

• Missouri beats Oklahoma to improve to 11-6
• Texas A&M beats LSU to improve to 11-7
• Kentucky beats Missouri to improve to 10-8
• Ole Miss loses twice to fall to 9-9

OR

• Missouri beats Oklahoma to improve to 11-6
• Texas A&M loses to LSU to fall to 10-8
• Kentucky beats Missouri to improve to 10-8
• Ole Miss finishes 1-1 to settle at 10-8
• Florida beats Alabama
• Texas A&M wins this tiebreaker due to a win over Auburn to claim the No. 6 seed
• Kentucky would claim the No. 7 seed due to Florida finishing ahead of Alabama

OR

• Missouri beats Oklahoma to improve to 11-6
• Texas A&M loses to LSU to fall to 10-8
• Kentucky beats Missouri (11-7) to improve to 10-8
• Ole Miss wins out to get to 11-7
• Kentucky owns the tiebreaker over Texas A&M for the No. 7 seed

No. 8 vs. No. 9 seed

Kentucky is now guaranteed to finish ahead of Mississippi State and Vanderbilt in just about any tie scenario. The Cats own the head-to-head over Mississippi State and would eventually own a tiebreaker over Vandy due to the win over Florida. Neither team beat Auburn or Alabama.

The only way Kentucky could fall to the No. 9 seed is if there is a three-way tie involving UK, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt. UK would lose that tiebreaker due to overall record (1-2) and begin the SEC Tournament as the No. 9 seed playing against No. 16 seed South Carolina on Wednesday afternoon.

There are numerous scenarios that could get Kentucky to the No. 8 seed. They only fall if there ends up being a tie between Vanderbilt and Ole Miss at 9-9.

No. 10 seed

There is no possible scenario available after Mississippi State and Vanderbilt each fell to 8-9.

Arkansas is lurking

John Calipari‘s Arkansas team picked up a huge Quad 1 road win on Tuesday night in Nashville to move to the right side of the bubble. That win plus Mississippi State’s loss also opened up some possibilities for the Hogs.

The Razorbacks are a home win against Mississippi State and a Georgia win over Vanderbilt away from clinching the No. 9 seed in the SEC Tournament. That means a rematch could arrive in Nashville on Thursday with Kentucky if Arkansas beats South Carolina in the opener.

Current Standings

1. Auburn (15-2)
2. Florida (12-4)
3. Alabama (12-4)
4. Tennessee (11-5)
5. Missouri (10-6)
6. Texas A&M (10-7)
7. Ole Miss (9-7)
8. Kentucky (9-8)
9. Mississippi State (8-9)
10. Vanderbilt (8-9)
11. Arkansas (7-10)
12. Georgia (7-10)
13. Texas (6-11)
14. Oklahoma (4-12)
15. LSU (3-14)
16. South Carolina (2-15)

***BOLD equals seed clinched.***

SEC Tournament (if chalk holds)

1. Auburn (16-2)
2. Tennessee (13-5)
3. Alabama (13-5)
4. Florida (13-5)
5. Missouri (12-6)
6. Texas A&M (11-7)
7. Ole Miss (9-9)
8. Kentucky (9-9)
9. Arkansas (8-10)
10. Mississippi State (8-10)
11. Georgia (8-10)
12. Vanderbilt (8-10)
13. Texas (7-11)
14. Oklahoma (4-14)
15. LSU (3-15)
16. South Carolina (2-16)

SEC Schedule

Wednesday (March 5)

• No. 5 Florida at No. 7 Alabama (7:00 | ESPN2)
• No. 15 Missouri at Oklahoma (8:00 | SEC Network)
• No. 5 Tennessee at Ole Miss (9:00 | ESPN2)

Saturday (March 8)

• No. 24 Mississippi State at Arkansas (Noon | SEC Network)
• Vanderbilt at Georgia (Noon | ESPNU)
• No. 19 Kentucky at No. 15 Missouri (1:00 | ESPN)
• South Carolina at No. 4 Tennessee (2:00 | SEC Network)
• No. 7 Alabama at No. 1 Auburn (2:00 | ESPN)
• No. 22 Texas A&M at LSU (4:00 | SEC Network)
• Ole Miss at No. 5 Florida (6:00 | SEC Network)
• Oklahoma at Texas (8:00 | SEC Network)