Kentucky is one win away from locking up No. 3 seed in SEC Tournament

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fans sec tournament — (Dr. Michael Huang | KSR)

The wins are stacking up for Kentucky basketball. There is currently no more bubble talk in the Bluegrass. Now the Cats are priming themselves for a March postseason run.

After Saturday’s throttling of Auburn at Rupp Arena, UK is now a consensus No. 8 seed in bracket projections and holding steady at No. 3 in the SEC standings with an 11-5 record in conference play. The Cats are now just one win away from locking up the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament for the second year in a row.

With the help of KenPom, we are back to take a look at the SEC race as just two games remain in the regular season. Kentucky has nearly locked up a double-bye heading into another conference tournament in Nashville.

Projected final standings

With Saturday night’s results now final, all 14 SEC teams have played 16 conference games. Seeding scenarios are now becoming more clear. KenPom has run the numbers and spit out projected standings. Let’s see where the league stands heading into the final week.

Alabama (16-2)
Texas A&M (14-4)
Kentucky (12-6)
Tennessee (11-7)
Missouri (10-8)
Vanderbilt (10-8)
Auburn (10-8)
Arkansas (9-9)
Florida (8-10)
Mississippi State (8-10)
Georgia (7-11)
South Carolina (4-14)
Ole Miss (4-14)
LSU (3-15)

Let’s take a look at the bracket.

Kentucky (11-7) enters the final weekend four games back of Alabama (15-1) and two games back of Texas A&M (13-3). The Cats are one game ahead of Tennessee (10-6) with a two-game lead over 9-7 teams Auburn, Missouri, and Vanderbilt.

One more win locks up the No. 3 seed

If Kentucky gets to 12-6 in SEC play, only Tennessee would be able to catch the Cats in the standings. However, the Wildcats own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vols due to going 2-0 against the Big Orange this season.

That means the Big Blue is one win away from claiming the three-seed for the second year in a row.

The time slot would not be great for that game due to a 9:30 pm ET/8:30 pm CT tip or later, but there is a strong track record for teams playing out of this slot. There have been 10 SEC Tournaments played since the league expanded to 14 teams and five times the No. 3 seed has made it to the championship on Sunday. Vanderbilt (2012) and Ole Miss (2013) each won the title out of this spot. No. 3 seeds own a 15-8 overall record during this period.

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The Cats will have a chance to make a run. They could expect to see either Auburn or Vanderbilt on Friday night in a quick turnaround rematch.

No. 2 seed is still possible

Following Mississippi State’s victory over Texas A&M on Saturday, the No. 2 seed is still alive for Kentucky. But the Cats will need some help.

Texas A&M is two games ahead of Kentucky with two games to play. However, UK owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Kentucky wins out and A&M loses to both Ole Miss and Alabama this week, UK would be the No. 2 seed in Nashville.

Kentucky could lose the double-bye this week

Now it’s time to analyze the worst-case scenario. If Kentucky went 0-2 and Tennessee won out, the Vols would slide into the No. 3 seed at 12-6. If Missouri and Vandy also won out, there would be a three-way tie at 11-7. Missouri would claim the No. 4 seed due to a 2-0 overall record in the three-team pool. Kentucky would fall to the No. 5 seed as the Cats would own the tiebreaker over Vanderbilt due to a win over No. 2 seed Texas A&M after Vandy and UK split the regular season meeting. The Cats would then open the SEC Tournament on Thursday afternoon and would face Missouri on Friday with a win.

If Kentucky loses to Vanderbilt on Wednesday, a fall to the No. 5 seed could happen but a few things would need to break the wrong way.