Kentucky lost some SEC Tournament seeding leverage in latest defeat

Wednesday night was a missed opportunity for Kentucky basketball. After Alabama defeated Florida in overtime, the Wildcats were in position to secure a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Gators this week with two more wins. That kind of went out the window when John Calipari’s team suffered its fourth sub-50 loss this season.

Tyrell Ward was the hero at the PMAC to give second-year head coach Matt McMahon a signature win. A double-bye opportunity might have been spoiled by Kentucky in the one-point loss.

LSU STUNS NO.17 KENTUCKY AT THE BUZZER 😱 pic.twitter.com/0pkq0sufmy

— ESPN (@espn) February 22, 2024

Every team in the SEC has now played 13 conference games. With five games to go over the next two-plus weeks, the regular-season championship is still up for grabs but Kentucky wasted an opportunity to continue a climb up the standings in the loss to LSU.

Current Standings

1. Alabama (11-2)
2. Tennessee (10-3)
3. Auburn (9-4)
4. South Carolina (9-4)
5. Kentucky (8-5)
6. Florida (8-5)
7. Mississippi State (7-6)
8. LSU (6-7)
9. Ole Miss (6-7)
10. Texas A&M (6-7)
11. Georgia (5-8)
12. Arkansas (4-9)
13. Vanderbilt (2-11)
14. Missouri (0-13)

Things are very tight and the only thing really locked in with five games to play is that Vanderbilt and Missouri will be wearing road jerseys on Wednesday night in Nashville. Every other seed is still up for grabs.

Projected Final SEC Standings

Using KenPom‘s projections, we have a decent idea on what to expect to occur when final seeding takes place for the SEC Tournament. It currently looks like a three-team race for the regular season with three others teams fighting for the final double-bye spot.

1. Alabama (14-4)
2. Tennessee (13-5)
3. Auburn (13-5)
4. Florida (12-6)
5. South Carolina (11-7)
6. Kentucky (11-7)
7. Mississippi State (9-9)
8. LSU (9-9)
9. Ole Miss (8-10)
10. Texas A&M (8-10)
11. Georgia (7-11)
12. Arkansas (6-12)
13. Vanderbilt (3-15)
14. Missouri (1-17)

Based on projections, Kentucky will finish tied with South Carolina for the No. 5 seed. The Gamecocks would own the tiebreaker due to a 1-0 record against the Wildcats. Kentucky would open up play on Thursday night in Nashville in the late game against the Georgia/Missouri winner. A win would move Kentucky into the nightcap on Friday to face No. 3 seed Auburn.

Three-team race

There was a path for Kentucky to make a run at a top-three seed. That is still possible, but the latest loss makes things difficult. The more attainable goal is securing the No. 4 seed over the last two weeks of the season. Much of this five-game stretch will be about winning and monitoring results for Florida and South Carolina.

South Carolina

• at Ole Miss (Feb. 24)
• at Texas A&M (Feb. 28)
• vs. Florida (March 2)
• vs. Tennessee (March 6)
• at Mississippi State (March 9)

Florida

• vs. Vanderbilt (Feb. 24)
• vs. Missouri (Feb. 28)
• at South Carolina (March 2)
• vs. Alabama (March 5)
• at Vanderbilt (March 9)

Kentucky needs to win some games, but it’s clear that both the Gamecocks and Gators have some losses left on the schedule. The Wildcats need a 3-1 finish to make clinching a No. 4 seed possible, but getting there will not make it a lock.

The home game on Saturday versus Alabama is huge because it will give Kentucky a tiebreaker against Florida after the two split the season series. However, South Carolina could mess things up. Lamont Paris’ team is one Kentucky cannot be tied with because they will force Kentucky down to the bottom of the tiebreaker no matter the scenario due to the head-to-head record.

Kentucky does not control its own destiny and needs some help.

Keep an eye on LSU

After consecutive one-point wins versus ranked opponents, Matt McMahon’s second LSU squad now has surprising postseason possibilities. The Tigers sit at 14-12 (6-7) but could end the season on a seven-game winning streak.

An 11-7 finish with 7 consecutive wins is on the table for LSU.

vs. Mississippi State
vs. Georgia
at Vanderbilt
at Arkansas
vs. Missouri

That's a lot of games against the bottom of the conference. This is a team to monitor in SEC Tournament seeding over the next 2 weeks.

— Adam Luckett (@AdamLuckettKSR) February 22, 2024

An 11-7 finish for the Bayou Bengals could be bad news for Kentucky as this is another team that now owns the tiebreaker over the Wildcats due to head-to-head record. If John Calipari’s squad finishes the season at 10-8 or 11-7, this is a team that Kentucky does not want to see close to them in the standings. That tiebreaker would not be friendly.

There is still a path to the double-bye, but Kentucky could slip down to a No. 7 seed just as easily. An important five-game stretch will start on Saturday at Rupp Arena.

Games to Watch

***South Carolina at Ole Miss: After a full week off, the Gamecocks hit the road to face an Ole Miss team on Saturday that is looking to bolster its at-large resume. Kentucky needs South Carolina to drop some games down the stretch.

***Auburn at Georgia: Kentucky owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against Auburn and is only one game back of Bruce Pearl’s teams in the standings. A win by Georgia could keep the No. 3 seed hopes alive for Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina.

***Mississippi State at LSU: The Tigers have a chance to close strong and make a real run up the SEC standings ladder. Kentucky would benefit from a Mississippi State win at the PMAC on Saturday night. If that doesn’t occur, running the table becomes a real possibility for Matt McMahon’s club.