Kentucky moves out of play-in game in latest SEC Tournament projection

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The mid-week action in the SEC wrapped up on Wednesday. Arkansas was again the story as John Calipari’s team went into Austin and won outright as 7.5-point underdogs. That was the only upset with chalk holding everywhere else, but that move helped Kentucky.

Mark Pope‘s team is not projected to finish the year with a winning record in league play at KenPom, but the latest setback for Texas helps Kentucky moved out of the dreaded play-in game that seeds 9-16 will have to participate in on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament.

The Cats have some work to do but are currently only two games behind the No. 5 seed in the latest projections.

Current standings

Auburn (9-0)
Alabama (8-1)
Missouri (6-3)
Texas A&M (6-3)
Florida (6-3)
Ole Miss (6-4)
Tennessee (6-4)
Kentucky (4-5)
Mississippi State (4-5)
Vanderbilt (4-5)
Texas (4-6)
Georgia (4-6)
Oklahoma (3-6)
Arkansas (3-6)
LSU (1-8)
South Carolina (0-9)

Kentucky currently sits in the No. 8 spot thanks to owning a three-team tiebreaker against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt due to a head-to-head win over Texas A&M. The Wildcats would begin the SEC Tournament on Thursday afternoon if it started today and face the winner of Mississippi State-South Carolina. Auburn and Alabama have distanced themselves in the race for the SEC title. Saturday’s game between Missouri and Texas A&M in Columbia is a big one.

The Wildcats are two games back of the last double-bye spot at them midway point of conference play.

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Projected SEC standings

Using KenPom‘s projections, this is what the SEC Tournament field would look like. I used some projected results to find tiebreaker winners. There are seven teams projected to reach double-digit wins, but getting to 11 wins feels like the magic number to secure a double-bye spot.

That means Kentucky would need to go 8-2 over the final 10 games of conference play to have a shot. The Wildcats have some work to do as the floor is now playing on Wednesday in Nashville.

Auburn (16-2)
Alabama (13-5)
Tennessee (12-6)
Florida (12-6)
Missouri (11-7)
Texas A&M (11-7)
Ole Miss (10-8)
Kentucky (9-9)
Mississippi State (8-10)
Texas (8-10)
Georgia (7-11)
Oklahoma (7-11)
Vanderbilt (7-11)
Arkansas (7-11)
LSU (3-15)
South Carolina (2-16)

The logjam created from 11-14 is now interesting following consecutive road wins for Arkansas over Kentucky and Texas. The Hogs dug themselves in quite a hole but could have a chance to climb up between the 8-10 window. That could create a potential rematch with Kentucky on Thursday in Nashville.

The Wildcats do not own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Ole Miss, but do own tiebreakers against Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. Future meetings against Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, and Texas all loom large.

There is a lot of basketball left to be played. Getting to the double-bye spot could be tricky but there is clear path to the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. There is also a path to starting the SEC Tournament on Wednesday if things go sideways.