Projecting Kentucky spreads using ESPN's SP+ rankings

The college football season starts next week. Parking lots at Kroger Field will be filled with fans in two weeks for some breakfast tailgating. Football is almost here, and there is real excitement in the Bluegrass for this Kentucky team.

Season tickets officially sold out this week, and Mark Stoops used his press conference on Saturday to thank the fan base. We are almost to the finish line of the offseason. To get us ready for the season, we’re pumping out content at KSR, and some of it is coming through a gambling lens.

Now we’ve decided to run back an exercise we originally tried in May. Earlier this week, ESPN’s SP+ preseason rankings were updated for the final time. UK checked in at No. 24 overall in the tempo and opponent-adjusted rankings.

Using the latest SP+ rankings and adding two points for home-field advantage, we can now put together projected spreads for all of Kentucky’s FBS games this season. Using this power rating, here we have projected spread numbers for the 2023 season.

• Ball State at UK (-29.5)
• Akron at UK (-36)
• UK (-17) at Vanderbilt
• Florida at UK (-1.5)
• UK (+16) at Georgia
• Missouri at UK (-5)
• Tennessee at UK (+7)
• UK (+1) at Mississippi State
• Alabama at UK (+13)
• UK (PK) at South Carolina
• UK (-2) at Louisville

Kentucky begins the season with four consecutive games that the Wildcats should win. There is just one game where Kentucky is more than a two touchdown underdog. Everything else is up for grabs. UK has six games with projected spreads of a touchdown or less proving that 50/50 game results will likely determine the season.

If Kentucky can win more toss-up games than they lose, there is a path to nine or more regular season games. Could another double-digit win season be on the way?