Kentucky is statistically the most likely 3-seed to lose in first round of NCAA Tournament

by:Zack Geoghegan•about 11 hours•

ZGeogheganKSR

Amari Williams, Otega Oweh, Koby Brea, Andrew Carr, and Travis Perry during Kentucky's SEC Tournament quarterfinal loss to Alabama - Dr. Michael Huang, Kentucky Sports Radio

Stay away from the advanced stat projections this week, BBN.

Our friend Evan Miyakawa of EvanMiya.com has used his numbers to create winning probabilities for all 68 teams in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately for Kentucky, the stats aren’t big believers in Mark Pope‘s first postseason run as head coach. UK has the highest probability among the four 3-seeds to lose in the opening round at 19.8 percent.

Kentucky, which will take on 14-seed Troy in the first round, is still a clear-cut favorite with a nearly 80 percent chance of victory. UK is also a double-digit betting favorite while KenPom and BartTorvik call for wins of a dozen points or more. So we wouldn’t classify the ‘Cats as being on “upset alert”. But just looking at the 3-seeds, Kentucky is not as highly favored as the rest of the group.

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Wisconsin > Montana (93.8%)
Texas Tech > UNC Wilmington (88.8%)
Iowa State > Lipscomb (88.7%)
Kentucky > Troy (80.2%)

Most likely upset by seed-line according to win probabilities at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax:

16 v 1 Norfolk State > Florida (3.6%)
15 vs 2 Bryant > Michigan St. (5.7%)
14 vs 3 Troy > Kentucky (20%)
13 vs 4 Yale > Texas A&M (30%)
12 vs 5 Colorado State > Memphis (53%)
11 vs 6 VCU >…
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 18, 2025

Miyakawa did note that Troy’s winning probability “would be much lower if Kentucky had a fully healthy squad.” But without Jaxson Robinson or Kerr Kriisa, along with a still banged-up Lamont Butler, Pope will have to make do with what he has. That being said, Kentucky has played shorthanded for most of the season to this point. As long as Butler can play and contribute on both ends, this won’t be a situation the ‘Cats haven’t faced before this season.

There is a 42 percent chance, per EvanMiya, that a 14-seed upsets a 3-seed this season. Let’s just hope UK doesn’t fall in that group. His numbers also project the percentage chances of how far in the NCAA Tournament each team will go. Kentucky has a 37.1 percent of reaching the Sweet 16, a 12.4 percent chance of reaching the Elite 8, a 2.8 percent chance of reaching the Final Four, a 0.4 percent chance of making the national championship, and a mere 0.1 percent chance of winning the whole thing.

Time to prove the computers wrong.