How Kentucky Beats Tennessee

By now you’ve heard, seen, or read nearly every imaginable breakdown of the upcoming Kentucky at Tennessee matchup. The Volunteers are ranked third in America and seemingly have been crowned Kings of the SEC before the end of October. Still, a great portion of the UT praise has been warranted. Tennessee topped Alabama and has rolled competition by beating opponents by an average of 27 points per game. Does Kentucky have a chance in Neyland Stadium? Here are my two cents about the SEC East showdown. 

Football can be an extremely complicated game. Football can be an incredibly simple game. The Wildcats’ winning formula for Saturday is complicatedly simple. Make sense? For the Cats to win, Mark Stoops and company must convert Saturday night’s college football game into an NFL Sunday variety. I’ll try to explain as we go along further. First, let’s dive into the UK offense. 

OFFENSE

For Kentucky to win, Saturday’s college needs to appear more like a Sunday NFL game than a track meet on turf as often seen with spread offenses. These two systems and philosophies couldn’t be much more different. Tennessee runs nearly three plays per minute which ranks in the top five in the country. Rich Scangarello’s NFL-style attack averages less than two snaps per minute. The Cats are the slowest operation in the land. So, what does that mean and how can Kentucky take advantage of the game’s tempo? Let’s get into it.  

Extend Possessions

This game is about extending possessions for the Wildcat offense. Every possession will count. Converted 3^rd and 4^th downs keep the clock and chains in UK’s favor as well as force that Tennessee offense to the sidelines. Thus, first and second-down plays are extremely critical. Kentucky cannot productively live in 3^rd and long, certain-pass scenarios. Will Levis was 9/9 on third down against Mississippi State. Several of these plays occurred in the second half of the Mississippi State game. While many aren’t talking about the UK offense going into Saturday, don’t count out Levis and company. 

The Kentucky offense is healthy and its two-deep is intact for one of the first times this season. Scangarello’s scheme and methods were on full display a couple of weeks ago. Extending or sustaining possessions will be vital for the visitors. One answer for that problem wears number 24. Chris Rodriguez Jr. rolled in his last time out and is fresh coming off a bye week. He will be counted on to churn out first downs and to eat clock which could lead to an extended stay on the Orange sideline for Hendon Hooker and that offense. Many of Rodriguez’s yards will be the result of multiple tight end sets and personnel groupings. Again, this game features a stark contrast in offensive styles and schemes. 

Have folks forgotten about Will Levis? You know, that other quarterback in this game that’s actually ranked in the top five in many NFL Draft boards and also completing 70% of his passes. There will be a multitude of pro scouts in Knoxville for this one. Levis needs to operate his offense like a future NFL signal-caller. Boisterous commands, huddle presence, and other “Check with me”s in front of 100,000 screaming, orange-clad spectators will be challenging. 

Tennessee will intend to cause havoc on early downs in order to unleash a dangerous pass rush. This especially applies to Bryon Young. The LEO linebacker leads the team in QB sacks (3.5), TFLs (4.5), and QB hurries (12). He must be accounted for at all times. Tennessee ranks dead last in the SEC by allowing 329 pass yards per game but is second in the league against the run after giving up just 90 yards per contest. 

Money in the Red Zone

The Tennessee defense is giving up 421 total yards per game. Some of this is because the offense has scored at such a high rate that opponents are forced to throw the football to make up for large leads. However, the Volunteers’ defense has stiffened in the Red Zone after allowing touchdowns on 46.6% (14/30) of opponent’s trips inside the twenty. Kentucky has not been great in this part of the field by scoring touchdowns on 56.6% trips to the Red Zone. Additionally, critical errors such as turnovers and penalties have also plagued the Cats here. To win, Kentucky has to be above 75% in this category. 

Make a Catch

Football is a game of emotion played by ultra-competitive athletes. Dane Key, Barion Brown, and Tayvion Robinson have heard all about the Volunteer pass catchers. The Wildcat skill group will want to one-up their fellow receivers which could lead to a remarkable grab that could motivate the team and fans. A spark can come in many forms. But, I’ve got a hunch that Key and company want to show their stuff and quarterback off in front of a national audience. 

DEFENSE

This part of the matchup is strength vs. strength. The Tennessee offense is ranked 1^st in the nation after racking up 572 yards and 50 points per outing. The Volunteers have scored 30 or more points in 10 consecutive games according to the SEC Network’s Cole Cubelic. On the other hand, the Kentucky defense has allowed 24 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games. Something has to give on Saturday night. The Volunteers’ winning average is 27 points compared to 10 for Kentucky. That Kentucky defense is ranked 2^nd in the SEC in scoring allowed (16 points per game) and total defense after giving up 295 yards per contest. Let’s dive into it from a Kentucky perspective. 

Steal Two or More Possessions

This can come in the form of a forced turnover or a defensive stand on third or fourth down. Somehow, someway the Cats have to take away multiple chances for Hendon Hooker and that offense to put points on the board. The more possessions the better for Will Levis and company. Hooker has been brilliant. He’s completing 70% of his passes and has thrown 18 touchdowns compared to just one interception. Forcing a turnover won’t be easy. Tennessee is leading the SEC with a +5 turnover margin. This objective would be magical for Kentucky if it happened in the first quarter. The Vols are a fast-start team and have outscored opponents 96-21 in the first quarter. 

Stop the Run

Hooker-to-Jalin Hyatt explosive touchdown passes have grabbed headlines and highlights. But, I’d argue that Tennessee’s run game is where that offense starts and stops. The Vols are averaging 203 yards per game on the ground. Ultra-fast tempo catches opposing defenses off guard. Hendon Hooker simply counts the box in order to call a run vs. a pass-look defense. 

The Vols are led by a pair of explosive and powerful running backs. Jaylen Wright has rushed for 405 yards and four scores. Jabari Small has reached the end zone on eight occasions and ran for 397 yards. Quarterback Hendon Hooker is also dangerous with his legs. The signal-caller has accumulated 315-rushing yards and 3 TDs on the ground. Kentucky has to limit the Volunteers to 150 or fewer rushing yards in order to leave Knoxville with a W. 

Influence the Quarterback

Hendon Hooker is playing the quarterback position as well as anyone in the nation. His individual and the team’s success have justifiably supplanted the veteran signal-caller into the Heisman conversation. Hooker’s favorite target is WR Jalin Hyatt. The pass catcher torched Alabama and has grabbed 40 passes for 769 yards and 12 touchdowns. His 19 yards per catch is a scary proposition for the Cats. 

Kentucky defended Mississippi State QB Will Rogers and that Air Raid well the last time out. Coordinator Brad White dropped into coverage and deployed crafty and timely blitzes to slow down the Pirate’s pass-happy scheme. One influence for that success was the defensive line’s discipline in rush lanes. Hooker is the team’s third-leading rusher with over 300 yards. Keeping him in the pocket and under duress are mandatory goals. Kentucky cannot allow Hooker to extend drives on the ground. That will require a great deal of discipline from the linebackers due to UT’s extremely wide splits. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Road wins and solid special teams play normally go hand in hand. Saturday will be no different. Earlier in this article, we discussed stealing a possession. A blocked kick/punt or a return for a score would go miles for momentum in an extremely unfriendly environment. One objective is non-negotiable. 

Do Your Job.

Is as applies. 

What Does All This Mean? 

Statistically speaking, the SEC’s top-ranked offense will be going against the second-ranked defense in a critical SEC East matchup; however, that’s not the vibe I’m sensing leading up to game day. It seems to me as if it already feels like a Tennessee celebration tour to Atlanta. I’m not taking anything away from Tennessee and how great the Vols have looked at times during the 2022 season. But, that little ole Wildcat defense has played awfully well too. 

This game is about contradicting offensive styles and philosophies. I’m not saying one is right and the other is wrong. But, the Cats and Vols are miles apart on that side of the football. This is also a rivalry game. The heated contention for the Beer Barrel may have died out, but there’s a great deal of the BBN that lives near the border and are at times surrounded by Orange. This game is ultra-important for both fan bases and it’s equally vital for both programs in search of postseason favor.