What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Kentucky is on the road for the third time this season and is looking to end a three-game SEC losing streak. The test in Week 10 will be a difficult one facing a top-10 Tennessee team that is winning in different ways under fourth-year head coach Josh Heupel.

After a week of previewing the SEC matchup, now feels like the proper time to take a step back and recap what we learned this week. What does Kentucky need to do to give itself a chance in the fourth quarter as a 17.5-point road underdog?

Let’s dive in.

Tennessee’s defense is outstanding

Spread offense and scoring a lot of points is generally what everyone thinks when envisioning a Josh Heupel football team. The latter has not been a thing for Tennessee in SEC play. That means that the Vols are winning games in different ways this season.

Tennessee legitimately might have the best defense in college football. The Vols rank in the top 10 in numerous metrics.

• Points Per Drive: 0.96 (No. 1 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 4.03 (No. 2 overall)
• Havoc Rate: 16.5% (No. 2 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 3.32 (No. 2 overall)
• 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 23.71% (No. 1 overall)
• Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 34.78% (No. 2 overall)

The Vols have a deep and talented defensive front that has been able to wreck games all season. Tennessee is outstanding against the run, and the passing game big-play prevention has been excellent to this point in the season. Every power conference offense on the schedule has scored between 10-19 points against this defense.

Kentucky’s struggling offense faces quite the challenge in Week 10.

Run, run, run offense

Tennessee has always been a run-first offense under Josh Heupel, but that stands out more now. This spread offense enters November ranked No. 11 nationally in run play percentage (62.33%). That trails only Texas A&M among power conference teams. 

Dylan Sampson leads the way. The junior leads the Vols in carries (144), rushing yards (838), and rushing touchdowns (18). The tailback is the engine that drives this Tennessee attack. Sampson has recorded 20-plus rushes in each SEC game this season and has gone over 90 yards in every game. The offense starts with No. 6.

Tennessee has gone north of 40 rushing attempts in every win this season and over half of those come from Sampson. Heupel is not asking redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava to do a ton. Against SEC competition, Iamaleava is completing only 58.3 percent of his passes on 6.9 yards per attempt. Tennessee ranks No. 91 nationally in completions of 20-plus yards.

The offense is driven by the traditional run game. The Vols are winning with defense and a ground game. Somewhere Phil Fulmer is smiling.

Vols start slow

Starting slow for Kentucky’s defense has been an issue in this matchup every year against a Josh Heupel offense. Over the last three meetings in this series, Tennessee has scored a touchdown on the first drive of the game in five plays or less. Kentucky has not held a first quarter lead in this series since 2019.

Kentucky has lost two one-score games in this series over the last three years, and the slow starts had a lot to do with that. The Wildcats cannot afford another slow start. Luckily, slow starts are kind of Tennessee’s thing this year, and that could help Kentucky end this slow start streak.

Tennessee enters this game having not scored a first half point in three consecutive SEC games. The Vols had 17 first half offensive points against Oklahoma but only mustered 13 first half points against NC State.

Scoring early has been an issue. Kentucky must keep that an issue. The defense must find some success early and keep this game close heading into the third quarter. An early lead for a struggling football team could do wonders play in front of a charged-up crowd for a night kickoff on Rocky Top.