Missed scoring opportunities loom large in Kentucky's loss to Tennessee

I felt like I just left the theaters after paying hard-earned money to buy a ticket and a huge tub of popcorn only to watch the same movie with a disappointing evening for the third time in a row. Kentucky is now 0-3 against Tennessee at Kroger Field since Stephen Johnson‘s heroics in 2017, and each loss was by a single-possession. This just keeps happening.

In Saturday’s 33-27 loss to No. 21 Tennessee, the Wildcats saw their run defense get shredded by Josh Heupel‘s rushing attack and the offense ruined an A-plus performance from super senior quarterback Devin Leary. There is a lot to unpack as Kentucky drops to 5-3 (2-3).

Two missed scoring chances in the second half loom large.

Kentucky’s offense bogs down at the wrong time

With a 7-3 lead in the Middle 8, Kentucky would get the ball back trailing 23-17 with 13:54 remaining in the third quarter with a chance to pad to that Middle 8 advantage. A 14-yard completion from Devin Leary to Dane Key got the drive started. Quickly, Liam Coen‘s offense had a first-and-10 at the Tennessee 38 creating the offense’s fourth scoring opportunity of the game.

One more first down will get the offense into field goal range. Instead, a first down sack follows when center Eli Cox cannot get outside in time to eliminate an edge pressure. The 11-yard loss took Kentucky out of field goal range and forced a go-for-it situation on fourth-and-six at the Tennessee 34. Then the ball ends up going to tailback Demie Sumo-Karngbaye on a go-route after Tennessee throws a double-team at Barion Brown in the slot.

That’s a call that Coen likely wants back. Tennessee gets the ball and then quickly drives down the field to add three points on the scoreboard.

The same situation would arrive again in the fourth quarter. Kentucky cut the lead to 26-24 with a six-play, 75-yard drive late in the third quarter, the offense would quickly get the ball back after the defense forced a punt. Another long completion from Leary to Key (21 yards) would get the drive started. A 15-yard completion to Sumo-Karngbaye gave the Wildcats a first-and-10 at the Kentucky 34 with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter. At worse, Kentucky would get a field goal attempt to take the lead. Unfortunately, the offense would ruin the upcoming series of downs.

Kentucky surprisingly goes to wildcat formation on first down, and that ends in a tackle for loss. Coen goes with a screen call on second down, and the play ends in a batted pass. On third down, Leary’s throw to Barion Brown down the right sideline sails out of bounds. Instead of riding a red-hot quarterback, Kentucky went with two calls they’d likely want back.

That result leaves kicker Alex Raynor in a tough situation. This scoring opportunity ends in a 52-yard field goal attempt that sails wide left. Kentucky would never get the ball back down one possession for the rest of the game.

Tennessee stole 6 points in the first half

Leaving the first half, Tennessee went to the locker room up 23-17. However, it felt like the Vols stole six points to get there.

After deciding to punt on 4th-and-1 at their own 34 in the first series of the game, Mark Stoops changed his mind on the second series trailing 7-0. Ray Davis was stuffed on the short-yardage attempt, and that turnover on downs would end in a 44-yard field goal to put the Vols up 10-0.

After a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive gave Kentucky a significant Middle 8 score, Tennessee received the ball back at their own 25 with 1:46 left in the second quarter. Brad White‘s defense had a chance to get their first big Middle 8 stop of the defense. The Wildcats ended up failing, but they caught another bad officiating break.

On third-and-six with under 40 seconds left in the half, Joe Milton broke the pocket to the right and fired a dart to Ramel Keyton on the Tennessee sideline. The play was ruled a catch and a 17-yard gain. However, the replay review clearly showed Keyton juggling the football with a foot out of bounds. That was not enough for an overturn.

Another Milton off-script play would lead to a 25-yard completion to Squirrel White with under 10 seconds left. Charles Campbell would then split the uprights from 34 yards out to give the Vols a 23-17 lead at the break.

Tennessee stole three points at the end of the half in 2021 to win by three. Tennessee stole six points to win in 2023 by six. Little moments like this are how you lose close games. A risky call and a bad penalty break ultimately made the difference.

The defense is a problem

Over the last three SEC games, Kentucky’s defense has allowed 122 points. Trailing by one possession twice in the fourth quarter, Brad White’s defense could not get the ball back to a hot Kentucky passing game down one possession.

The defense is a problem right now.

Week 9 showed some promising signs for the future with how the passing game operated. Kentucky looked like a legitimate top-25 offense, but the defense is currently not holding up its end of the bargain.

With a pro-style offense and a bend-but-don’t-break defense, Kentucky is not built to win shootouts. The winning recipe in Lexington is complementary football. White’s defense is not holding up its end of the bargain right now.

Some work in both the short-term and long-term must be done for the defense or losses will continue to pile up.