Turnovers, poor down-to-down efficiency take Kentucky's upset off the table against Tennessee

No one gave Kentucky much of a chance in the Week 10 matchup on the road against top-10 Tennessee. The injury report was long for the Wildcats and grew longer in the loss. Despite playing with a short deck, the Wildcats were down three in the fourth quarter with the ball without their starting quarterback.

Mark Stoops saw his team give a valiant effort in front of a sold-out crowd at Neyland Stadium but did not do enough to win the football game. Down-to-down efficiency and another poor performance in the turnover column ultimately took a great chance at winning away.

Vols dominate the down-to-down fight

Creating explosive plays is very important, but those can be hard to find no matter how electric your offensive playmakers are. Down-to-down efficiency is critical in winning football games. Playing ahead of the chains is what allows you to become a good red zone offense. Tennessee distanced itself from Kentucky by winning the down-to-down fight.

Tennessee’s offense had 81 non-kneel offensive snaps in the 28-18 win and recorded a robust 55.5 percent success rate. The Vols saw Nico Iamaleava complete 28-of-38 (73.7%) of his throws on 7.7 yards per attempt. Star tailback Dylan Sampson rushed for 142 yards on 27 carries despite the longest rush of the game being only 17 yards. Tennessee was 8-of-15 on third and fourth down as Josh Heupel‘s offense constantly played ahead of the chains.

If not for three missed field goals, this game could’ve easily gotten away from Kentucky.

Kentucky finished the game with a 34.4 percent success rate on 64 snaps in 12 possessions. The Wildcats completed 14-of-27 (51.8%) throws on 7.1 yards per attempt, but most of the yards were gained on explosive plays. Jamarion Wilcox rushed for a team-high 102 yards on 17 carries, but 50 yards came on the first snap of the game. The Wildcats finished the game 4-of-16 on third and fourth down as there was too much boom-or-bust with the offense and not enough efficiency.

The Wildcats solved some explosive play problems creating five plays of 25-plus yards that helped create a handful of scoring opportunities, but the down-to-down efficiency couldn’t extend drives on third down and saw this offense labor in the red zone again by scoring zero touchdowns once inside the 20.

Tennessee’s down-to-down efficiency gave the home team a sizable advantage in this game.

Tennessee swings game with turnovers

A first quarter interception by Brock Vandagriff did not hurt Kentucky since the defense delivered their own takeaway in the red zone thanks to a strip and fumble recovery by linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. The Wildcats entered the halftime break with a 10-7 lead and an even mark in the turnover column.

The team that created a turnover margin in the second half would have a big advantage. After making another red zone stop to begin the half, the game slipped away from Kentucky when the Vols went on a 14-0 run to claim a 21-10 lead thanks to two turnovers in three possessions.

A Joshua Josephs sack fumble on Vandagriff gave Tennessee the football immediately after a missed field goal at the Kentucky 28. The Vols took the lead five plays later. Kentucky would then get the ball back down 14-10 with 5:27 left in the third quarter and created another scoring opportunity before a third-and-medium at the Tennessee turned into a red zone possession on the other side of the field after a Gavin Wimsatt interception.

WILL BROOKS SAID GIMME THAT 😤 @Vol_Football pic.twitter.com/jnhkIYGKO0

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 3, 2024

Tennessee would quickly turn a 10-7 deficit into a 21-10 lead, and that provided enough cushion to leave Knoxville with a victory. In a game where Kentucky needed a takeaway advantage, Tennessee was the team that used turnovers to secure a win.

Kentucky gives valiant effort but same mistakes remain

Kentucky entered the game at Neyland Stadium severely short-handed but found a way to rally the troops and produce one of the best efforts of the season. Offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan put together a good plan and the offense had the ball down three in the fourth quarter. Anyone would’ve signed up for that in the pregame, and that was after the injury situation worsened when Brock Vandagriff and Gavin Wimsatt were each knocked out of the game.

This team deserves to be commended for their effort, but you will always be what your record says you are. Kentucky came to fight on Saturday, but they also failed to perform in other big moments. Even in Saturday’s game, some of the same mistakes remained the same mistakes.

Kentucky created two red zone possessions in the first half and failed to score a touchdown on each. The Wildcats again struggled on third down, played another SEC game without forcing multiple takeaways, and could not get a key stop late despite forcing a pair of third-and-long situations on Tennessee’s final touchdown drive.

The Wildcats put together one of their best performances of the season but did not make enough winning plays. Instead of chalking this up as a banged-up team losing a tough game on the road, it is seen as another missed opportunity in a season full of them. Kentucky now sits at 3-6 (1-6), and the program’s first losing season since 2015 feels inevitable.

Kentucky football remains unpredictable in 2024, but the game results are becoming predictable. The Wildcats are not consistent enough to consistently win football games whether healthy or dealing with a limited roster.