KSR Staff Predictions: No. 12 Kentucky at No. 8 Tennessee

After back-to-back losses, No. 12 Kentucky takes a shorthanded roster to Knoxville to face No. 8 Tennessee. The Cats will be without Lamont Butler (shoulder), who was declared out last night, and potentially Andrew Carr (back), against one of the best defenses in the country. Tennessee has lost two of its last three, also falling victim to Memorial Magic at Vanderbilt and coming up just short at No. 1 Auburn on Saturday, 53-51.

Kentucky is 5-1 against AP Top-15 teams. Can the Cats pull off an upset for the ages tonight on Rocky Top? Ready or not, the KSR crew is weighing in.

Tyler Thompson

I was nervous about this game before the news broke that Lamont Butler would be out. Although Andrew Carr is listed as questionable, you have to think he’s trending to miss his second straight game to give his back some extended rest. That would leave Kentucky without two of its top four scorers and steadiest hands in a game that’s about as big a clash of styles as you’ll find.

Tennessee held Auburn to 53 points on Saturday. The Vols lost to the No. 1 ranked Tigers, but that’s no small feat. Meanwhile, Kentucky looked bad vs. Vanderbilt for three-quarters of the game on Saturday, both offensively and defensively. Without Butler and potentially Carr, I just can’t see the Cats pulling this upset off — unless Koby Brea catches fire on Rocky Top. Kentucky needed 16 threes to knock off Mississippi State in Starkville, its only true road win. That feels like the most realistic path to victory tonight.

Down one, potentially two starters, Mark Pope will have to get creative. I’m looking forward to seeing what game plan he rolls out, but worry Kentucky won’t have the firepower and poise to pull it off.

Score: Tennessee 75, Kentucky 68

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Zack Geoghegan

I’m sure I speak for most of the BBN when I say these injuries scare me. Lamont Butler was a shell of himself against Vanderbilt. Andrew Carr’s absence wasn’t a total game-changer, but having him down the stretch against the Commodores would have made me feel much better about Kentucky’s chances of winning that game. Playing without one of them, and possibly both, against Tennessee’s top-ranked defense makes me feel uneasy. We’ve seen Kentucky beat the Volunteers as underdogs in past years, but this situation feels more dire.

Tennessee is another excellent offensive rebounding team and ranks first in the country in three-point defense (25.4 percent). Keeping the Vols off the glass and hitting threes on the other end will be necessary. Let’s not ignore the fact that Tennessee’s offense has not been great lately though. A hot shooting night for the ‘Cats could make this one exciting.

Ansley Almonor will be the X-Factor if Carr sits out. He needs to shoot over five three-pointers. Jaxson Robinson has to score 20-plus. Kentucky will make it closer than expected but runs out of juice late.

Score: Tennessee 81, Kentucky 76

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Adam Luckett

This game is a total clash of styles. Tennessee plays slower than Christmas and revolves everything around its half-court defense. Kentucky wants to play with pacing and space on offense, but has issues on defense. Since New Year’s Day, the Vols are sub-70 in adjusted offensive efficiency and the Cats are sub-100 in adjusted defensive efficiency. But both teams are elite on the other end.

No Lamont Butler or Kerr Kriisa looms large for Kentucky, but this is a five-out offense that can be initiated at multiple spots. Kentucky will give the Vols some issues and should generate open three-point attempts. Tonight could be about make or miss.

Kentucky has had a recent pace of play problem and that likely won’t go away tonight. The Vols dictate the terms of the game and take advantage of Kentucky’s porous two-point defense, but three-point shooting keeps the Cats within striking distance.

UK has chance to win it in the last four minutes but comes up just short. I’m expecting a limited possession game where the Vols get to play in their comfort zone. That ultimately makes the difference, but I do like how Kentucky matches up with this Tennessee team.

Score: Tennessee 71, Kentucky 69

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Drew Franklin

We’re all friends here, right? I don’t feel great about the game, Big Blue Nation. I did 24 hours ago. I even considered a money line bet on the Wildcats when it hit the board but held off on the longshot play until Kentucky released its injury report Monday night. I’m glad I waited because that optimism of yesterday is gone. No Lamont Butler is a huge concern. Carr too, if he is unable to go. I’m afraid the limited roster is too much to overcome in a place like the Food City Center.

So, outside of a special night by Koby Brea and Jaxson Robinson, I see another L on the Wildcats’ schedule. This one won’t hurt the resume, though. Take the loss if it happens, hopefully get healthy, and win on Saturday. Getting healthy is more important than any result in Knoxville tonight.

Score: Tennessee 82, Kentucky 71

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Jack Pilgrim

Kentucky is a double-digit underdog following the news of Lamont Butler’s absence, the line now +10.5 as the Cats look to avoid a three-game losing streak. Kerr Kriisa is still out, Andrew Carr is seriously banged up with a back injury and our pets’ heads are falling off. No one believes in this group to go pull off a win against the No. 1 defense in college basketball, so what the hell do they have to lose? They’re playing with house money, loose and free with the world penciling in a blowout win for the dirty Vols. It’s right where you want to be under dire circumstances.

Jaxson Robinson said Kentucky got punked in Nashville and wanted to be more aggressive after getting ‘caught up sometimes just trying to let the game come to me.’ Likely manning PG1 duties, he has no choice but to recreate the magic he found in the second half playing the same role against Gonzaga. A win is going to take shot volume with a dozen-plus makes from three — looking at you, Koby Brea — but you and I both know that’s possible on any given night for this group.

Also, it’s Amari Williams’ birthday. If there was ever day for the 7-footer to answer the call with physicality and toughness, it’s on the day he turns 23 years old. Grown man strength for No. 22.

Score: Kentucky 78, Tennessee 74

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Nick Roush

Kentucky is winning this game because they have no business winning this game. that’s how this team works. When you least expect it, they bring their best effort.

The Cats are 3-0 outright as underdogs. Kentucky has won consecutive games over Tennessee as 8+ point underdogs, winning four of the last five games in Knoxville, including a few where they were short-handed. Jaxson Robinson stepped up in Lamont Butler and Kerr Kriisa’s absence against Gonzaga and we all know how well that turned out.

My brain is worried about the Tennessee defense against Kentucky’s ball-handlers, but my gut tells me things are going to get silly in Knoxville and Kentucky will find a way to find a way.

Score: Kentucky 77, Tennessee 75

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Kentucky vs. Tennessee: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, Molly McGrath)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 160 or 191
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.