KSR Staff Predictions: [3] Kentucky vs. [2] Tennessee in the Sweet 16

The biggest game in the history of the Kentucky–Tennessee basketball rivalry is upon us. Tonight, the Cats and Vols will meet in the Sweet 16 with everything on the line. You can throw the regular-season record out the window. Mark Pope said Round 3 is a free-standing game, with one team’s season coming to an end and the winner playing on to the Elite Eight.

Can Kentucky continue its dominance in the series, winning a sixth game in seven meetings? Or will Tennessee avenge its recent losses to close the book on Pope’s first season in Lexington. The high-stakes game tips off at 7:39 p.m. on TBS. Before it does, the KSR office made a round of predictions to preview the matchup.

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Drew Franklin

Not in a million NCAA Tournaments would I pick Tennessee over Kentucky in the Big Dance. So, let’s talk about how Kentucky will beat the Vols to reach the Elite Eight in Mark Pope’s first season as the head coach of the Wildcats, not if Kentucky can advance past its rival.

Like the first two meetings, Kentucky will dare Tennessee to shoot 3-pointers, hoping to see another pallet of bricks. The Vols shot 23.8% in the two regular-season losses to Kentucky, making 12 of 45 in Knoxville (24.4%) and 3 of 18 (16.7%) in Lexington. Meanwhile, the Cats made 50% of their 3s against Tennessee, hitting 12 of 24 in each game.

For Kentucky to win Round 3, the teams will need similar outside shooting performances as the regular season meetings. Tennessee has the third-best 3-point defense in the country, but if Kentucky can match its season average (38%) or better from 3, with 10+ makes, it should be on the right pace to out-score Tennessee. The Cats will want to score in the high 70s or better to feel good about winning. UK scored 75 and 78 in the first two wins.

Keeping Chaz Lanier from March Madness stardom will also be a priority for Kentucky to win. Lanier averaged 12.5 in two games against UK, well beneath his 18.1 ppg. Lanier had games of 20 and 29 points in the first two tournament games. He can’t go in the Sweet 16.

With 3-point shooting and keeping Lanier in check, Kentucky will send the Vols home with a 3-0 sweep.

Score: Kentucky 77, Tennessee 72

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Nick Roush

I forgot what it was like to feel this feeling, that feeling of March angst that creates a pit in your stomach. No matter how much you pace, curse, or drink, it’s not going away until the final horn sounds. That feeling has been amplified ahead of the Sweet 16 matchup with Tennessee.

There have been times this week when I have been confident in the Cats. There are so many positive trends pointing UK’s way. I particularly enjoy the way Kentucky has played defense as of late. It feels like the game will be won or lost on that end. Will Lanier continue to struggle against the Cats, or go nuclear?

I’ve tried to convince myself that Tennessee’s ability to score matters the most. My greatest fear is that Kentucky needed to be 12-24 to beat the Vols, and that’s just not possible to replicate a third time. That’s not even mentioning the inevitable ref show. The stripes are going to be terrible and it’s going to suck so much.

When the bracket was revealed on Selection Sunday, I predicted a Kentucky victory over the Vols in the Sweet 16. “It’s going to be glorious.” I fear I may have jinxed the Cats.

Score: Tennessee 75, Kentucky 71

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Tyler Thompson

I feel like I’ve heard my entire life that it’s hard to beat a team three times. Alabama debunked that myth vs. the Cats two weeks ago. It will be put to the test again tonight in Indianapolis.

It’s easy to talk yourself into Tennessee winning. The Vols couldn’t buy a shot in the first two matchups, going 14-63 (22%) from the three-point line. They’ve been much better in their first two games of the NCAA Tournament, 21-50 (42%). Chaz Lanier, who was mostly quiet vs. Kentucky, hit 10 of those 21 threes. Surely, the Vols will find some offense and a way to shut down Kentucky’s in round three, getting one step closer to an elusive Final Four to send Rick Barnes out on a high note, right?

That’s not how this rivalry works. My nerves for this game are high — I live in the Volunteer State, after all — but Tennessee is not beating Kentucky in the Sweet 16. The Cats are just not a good matchup for the Vols. As much as I worry about the impact the setup in Lucas Oil Stadium will have on Kentucky’s shooting, Tennessee’s playing in the same building, and the Cats have Lamont Butler back, giving them another way to get to the rim. Butler isn’t 100%, but played better than he has in months vs. Illinois. Andrew Carr is finally healthy too, and will be the difference-maker in this one after scoring just two points in the previous meetings.

Any doubt I had about tonight was eased when the picture of Zakai Zeigler flipping off the UK logo in Rupp Arena made the rounds. I can’t wait to see this team band together once more and remind the Vols of their position in the rivalry, giving BBN one of the sweetest Sweet 16 wins in program history.

Score: Kentucky 76, Tennessee 72

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Jacob Polacheck

Kentucky went into Knoxville earlier this season and beat the Vols. Not too long after, they beat Tennessee in Lexington. The third time could prove the toughest.

The matchup I’m watching in this game is Lamont Butler vs. Zakai Zeigler. Butler needs to keep the momentum of his first two tournament games to win that battle.

Three-point shooting is another topic on the minds of many in this game. Tennessee did not shoot well at all in the first two matchups against Kentucky, but has improved dramatically in the NCAA Tournament. Still, with an improved defense and an offense finding its rhythm without Jaxson Robinson, the Cats are my pick.

Score: Kentucky 86, Tennessee 81

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Adam Luckett

Kentucky is 5-1 against Tennessee over the last six meetings with multiple outright wins as a betting underdog. Rick Barnes is 6-18 against-the-spread (ATS) since 2010 and has lost five times to lower-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament at Tennessee. UK is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games as a dog in the Big Dance. Lower-seeded teams are 8-3 ATS with 7 outright upsets in conference meetings in the NCAA Tournament over the last two decades.

The trends are adding up. Trust the trends.

Shot variance will be a major factor in this matchup after Kentucky shot the ball well and Tennessee didn’t in the first two meetings. The football stadium factor could also contribute to the shooting, but all signs point to UK being an unexpectedly difficult matchup for the Vols. UK’s five-out offense expands a defense that would rather crowd the paint, Lamont Butler can negate Zakai Zeigler, and Amari Williams gives the Cats the offensive flexibility and defensive rebounding at the five-spot that can really hurt the Vols.

The Cats find a way to get it done. Rick Barnes and Tennessee suffer another brutal loss in March as the program’s Final Four drought continues.

Score: Kentucky 72, Tennessee 70

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Jack Pilgrim

I have never seen a Kentucky win in Indianapolis, nor have I seen a Sweet 16 with my own two eyes in person. I’m writing this from the same hotel where Saint Peter’s broke me as a person in 2022, looking at the building where it happened. I promised I’d never come back to this city, confident that I’m the bad luck charm bringing down the program I love to the depths of my soul. Then Tennessee popped up as the likely matchup for a spot in the Elite Eight and everything changed, a fire lighting inside to tell me that it’s time to leave the past in the past and embrace this bright future under Mark Pope where we enjoy Indy again. If you’re going to exorcise some demons, you do it against the Volunteers, ending Zakai Zeigler’s career and potentially sending Rick Barnes into retirement.

The Wildcats proved to be a difficult matchup for the Volunteers in the first two matchups, and now, they get Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr — out or limited in both — back at full strength, despite missing Jaxson Robinson. Will the orange shoot a sub-25 percent the way they did in both losses? That’s the hope, just as it will be for the blue and white to go 12-24 the way they did in both outings.

Kentucky doesn’t have to be red-hot and Tennessee doesn’t have to be ice-cold for me to like the Cats in this one. It’s time to flip the script and break the Indianapolis curse, advancing to the first Elite Eight since 2019. Trent Noah kills the school he hates most with a few daggers to send the good guys to the regional final.

Score: Kentucky 81, Tennessee 77

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Zack Geoghegan

These two teams have seemingly switched styles since Kentucky won the last matchup in Rupp Arena well over a month ago. The Wildcats have leaned on its defense while the Volunteers have leaned on its offense. In a way, both teams are not comparable to what they were back in early February — which makes predicting round three more difficult.

For me, this game comes down to the power forward position. Zakai Zeigler is playing more aggressively and Chaz Lanier is shooting lights out in the tournament, but the Volunteers have not faced a healthy Andrew Carr yet. Ansley Almonor was a knockdown shooter in the first two games but leaves some to be desired on defense and in the rebounding department. Carr will be a better matchup for Tennessee’s Igor Milicic, who was previously the lone Vol player I believed had a true positional advantage over the ‘Cats.

That won’t be the case tonight as Carr posts a double-double. Butler will lock up Zeigler, although I’m expecting a big game from Lanier. That being said, he won’t be able to beat Kentucky by himself. Koby Brea has another terrific game as the ‘Cats just barely advance to the Elite 8.

Score: Kentucky 82, Tennessee 81

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[3] Kentucky vs. [2] Tennessee: How to Watch, Listen

• Date, Time: Friday, 7:39 p.m. EST
• Television: TBS or truTV (Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas, Evan Washburn)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: The Varsity App
• Satellite Radio: 209 or 202

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.