KenPom, BartTorvik predictions for Kentucky's next three games

With the upset over Tennessee and a dominant second half vs. Georgia, Kentucky finally has some momentum rolling and it couldn’t come at a more perfect time. The Cats’ next opportunity for a Quad 1 win is a week from Saturday vs. No. 2 Kansas. If Kentucky takes care of business before then, it sets up one of the best atmospheres in Rupp Arena in recent memory. I get chills just thinking about it. But, there are two games before that, neither of them easy.

On Saturday, Kentucky hosts a Texas A&M team riding a seven-game winning streak, and on Tuesday, the Cats travel to Nashville to play Vanderbilt in the always-weird Memorial Gym. We’ll have plenty to say about each opponent and matchup in the coming days, but what are the computer models predicting?

First, a look at where the Cats stand. Right now, Kentucky is No. 40 in the NET, the NCAA’s ranking system/sorting tool; No. 33 in KenPom; and No. 73 in BartTorvik, another rating system. The Cats are still on the outside of the AP and Coaches Top 25s.

• Record: 12-6 (3-3 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/RV
• NET: 40
• KenPom: 33
• BartTorvik: 73

Now, let’s see what KenPom and BartTorvik are saying about the next three games.

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Texas A&M Aggies

Sat., Jan. 21, 2:00 p.m. ET, Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN

• Record: 13-5 (5-0 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: RV/RV
• NET: 55 (Quad 2)
• KenPom: 48
• BartTorvik: 33

The Aggies are riding a seven-game winning streak and are second in the SEC standings behind Alabama. Buzz Williams’ squad has beaten Florida twice, LSU, Missouri, and South Carolina. The wins over Missouri and South Carolina, teams that both beat Kentucky, were by an average of 24.5 points. The Aggies are Top 50 in offensive efficiency but struggle against three-point shooting teams. Four of the five teams that have beaten A&M this season (Murray State, Colorado, Boise State, Wofford) have outshot them from the three-point line. Saturday would be an ideal time for CJ Fredrick and Antonio Reeves to get hot from the outside.

KenPom: Kentucky 73, Texas A&M 68 (66% chance of winning)

Torvik: Kentucky 71, Texas A&M 70 (53% chance of winning)

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Vanderbilt Commodores

Tue., Jan. 24, 9 p.m. ET, Memorial Gym (Nashville, TN), SEC Network

• Record: 9-9 (2-3 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 92 (Quad 2)
• KenPom: 90
• BartTorvik: 88

The Commodores are 2-3 in the SEC thus far, losing at Missouri (85-82), at Tennessee (77-68), and to No. 4 Alabama (78-66) Tuesday night in Nashville. They started SEC play with an overtime win over South Carolina and last weekend, upset then-No. 15 Arkansas 97-84. Vanderbilt scored 63 points on the Razorbacks in the second half, which is kind of nuts.

That said, they were dealt some bad news this week. Vanderbilt’s leading scorer and rebounder Liam Robbins is out 4-6 weeks with an ankle sprain. That should make next Tuesday easier, but Kentucky is only 1-3 in true road games this year and strange things can happen in Memorial Gym.

KenPom: Kentucky 72, Vanderbilt 70 (57% chance of winning)

Torvik: Vanderbilt 72, Kentucky 71 (44% chance of winning)

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Kansas Jayhawks

Sat., Jan. 28, 8:00 p.m. ET, Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN

• Record: 16-2 (5-1 Big 12)
• AP/Coaches Poll: 2/2
• NET: 6 (Quad 1)
• KenPom: 7
• BartTorvik: 8

Kansas’ overtime loss at No. 13 Kansas State preceded Kentucky vs. Georgia on ESPN Tuesday night, giving the BBN a chance to check out the defending national champs. It was only the Jayhawks’ second loss of the year, the first coming to Tennessee in the final of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Ochai Agbaji, David McCormack, Remy Martin, and Mitch Lightfoot are gone from last year’s team that lost to Kentucky by 18 in The Phog and rebounded to win the title. Freshman guard Gradey Dick is second on the team in scoring (14.7 PPG) behind junior forward Jalen Wilson (20.8 PPG). Senior guard Kevin McCullar Jr. transferred in from Texas Tech and is averaging 10.2 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.

The Jayhawks are tough, winning four of their last six games by four or fewer points. They’re also really good on the road, going 3-1 in true road games and 3-1 at neutral sites. Before coming to Rupp, Kansas takes on two more ranked teams, hosting No. 14 TCU on Saturday and playing at No. 21 Baylor on Monday. A win over the Jayhawks would be massive in many ways. It would add another crucial Quad 1 victory to Kentucky’s resume, create a landslide of momentum heading into the meat of the conference schedule, and likely bring even the most skeptical fans back on board as we look toward March. Rupp better be rocking.

KenPom: Kansas 73, Kentucky 70 (42% chance of winning)

Torvik: Kansas 73, Kentucky 69 (32% chance of winning)