Kentucky is already being placed on upset alert for opener against Toledo

Sep 14, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Toledo Rockets players react after defeating the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-Imagn Images

Kentucky is looking for a bounce-back season in 2025. Many fans have circled the Week 2 contest against Ole Miss as the first big game for Mark Stoops and his program as they look to prove the doubters wrong in 2025. But some others have the Week 1 game circled.

Toledo is fresh off a season with two wins over power conference opponents and is the heavy favorite to win the MAC. With continuity at head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, starting quarterback, and a favorable schedule, the Rockets seem to have a legitimate chance at running the table and sneaking into the 12-team College Football Playoff field in 2025. Some are claiming that Jason Candle‘s team will be a live dog in Week 1. Expect this game to show up on the Week 1 episode of “College GameDay” when it airs in a couple of weeks.

“Yes, yes. Kentucky is on upset alert when Toledo comes calling,” Rece Davis said on ESPN’s ‘College GameDay Podcast.’ “Big time.”

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Toledo recently received 13 votes in the preseason AP Top 25 poll. A win over Kentucky in an SEC venue could get Candle’s squad into the top 25 quickly. That will be important if they were to go on a run and attempt to build a playoff resume. Just last season, Toledo hammered Mississippi State in a 41-17 blowout win as a 10-point underdog. The season ended with an overtime thriller in the GameAbove Sports Bowl when the Rockets outlasted Pittsburgh in a 48-46 win as a six-point underdog.

The spread for the Week 1 game against Kentucky keeps shrinking. Toledo is currently a 8.5-point underdog with a total of 48.5 at BetMGM. That’s a projected final score of 28.5-20. The Cats will be tested out of the gate this season with a roster that includes 50 new players and a bunch of first-year transfer starters. UK has covered in four consecutive season openers and is 17-0 outright plus 13-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last 17 games against MAC competition.

The recent trends say to back UK but many prognosticators will be on the Rockets in Week 1.

Early Scouting Report: Toledo Rockets (KSR+)