Kentucky has struggled against good defenses this season

We have reached Selection Sunday, and there is a clear team profile Kentucky needs to avoid when the bracket is released.

The Wildcats will be on the two-seed line when the selection committee reveals the 2022 bracket, and John Calipari’s team will be one of the favorites to cut down the nets in April. However, this is a tournament that is very matchup-driven. There is one certain matchup that the Wildcats need to avoid.

Kentucky has had legitimate issues with strong defensive teams.

Using KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, Kentucky has played eight games against top-20 defenses. In those contests, the Wildcats are 2-5. When UK does not play a top-20 defense, the team is 24-2. Seems that we’ve figured out the teams to avoid.

In the second round, Kentucky could very easily see another top-25 defense. San Diego State (2), Iowa State (10), Boise State (17), Creighton (18), San Francisco (20), and Loyola Chicago (22) are all candidates to be either a No. 7 or No. 10 seed. Seton Hall sits just outside the top-25 at No. 26. The Wildcats could face its weakness early in the tournament.

As the tournament progresses, avoiding good defenses will be hard. Some projections are putting Kentucky in Philadelphia as the No. 2 seed. That means the Wildcats will be matched up with the final No. 1 seed which appears to be Baylor. Scott Drew’s program has a top-25 defense for the third season in a row ranking No. 14. However, none of the projected No. 1 seeds rank in the top-five of defensive efficiency, and only Gonzaga is in the top-10.

Kentucky might have picked the correct year to have this weakness. However, a scary second-round matchup could be awaiting the Wildcats.

Getting back to non-conference play could be good

Kentucky has played 33 games this season and lost seven. Over 70 percent of those defeats have been to SEC foes. The league is very familiar with what Kentucky does on both offense and defense. Therefore, the good teams have found a way to have some success against Kentucky.

The Wildcats are No. 4 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency but have had five games where the team has scored less than one point per possession. Each outing was against an SEC Team.

• LSU (Jan. 4, L 69-67): 0.85 points per possession
• Texas A&M (Jan. 19, W 64-58): 0.90 points per possession
• Alabama (Feb. 5, W 66-55): 0.89 points per possession
• Tennessee (Feb. 15, L 76-63): 0.93 points per possession
• Tennessee (March 11, L 69-62): 0.90 points per possession

Only the SEC Tournament loss to Tennessee was not a true road game. Both LSU and Tennessee were top-10 defenses on the season. The Texas A&M win was one game after the Wildcats torched the nets in a beatdown of Tennessee at Rupp Arena. Meanwhile, the Alabama win was one of the weirdest games of the season as the Tide were 3 of 30 (10%) from three-point range.

Getting out of the league should be good for Kentucky’s offense as other teams won’t have as good of a blueprint as league foes in the NCAA Tournament.