Kentucky, ULM Week One Expectations

Expectation management is an attribute that fan bases across America are facing at the start of college football season. Kentucky is roughly a thirty-point favorite against Louisiana Monroe in its opener. New Warhawk head coach Terry Bowden inherits a team that’s fresh off an 0-10 season. He’s also dealing with personnel issues and has kept his two-deep depth chart a secret in the preseason. Lots of gamesmanship for a 29.5-point dog. Let’s be honest here. UK will win on Saturday. But, by how much? What will it take for you to be impressed against a non-conference opponent? Will you judge the Cat’s performance by scoring margin or the eye test?  

By the Numbers

Louisiana Monroe finished the 2020 season ranked 122^nd in the country after averaging 16.3 points per game. The Warhawks allowed 42 per contest which was listed at 124^th nationally. A losing point margin of 25.7 was dreadful. Total yards were another stat-line that wasn’t friendly to the upcoming visitors. ULM accumulated 306-yards per game and allowed 464. These ugly numbers equaled a winless, 0-10 record and resulted in the exit of Coach Matt Viator.

Terry Bowden has kept specific personnel matters out of the headlines. The Warhawks have operated in a cloak of secrecy but multiple reports indicate that he’s added nearly fifty players to the roster since taking over. Projecting ULM’s two-deep is an impossibility. However, there’s no disputing the statistics from a year ago. ULM was one of the worst teams in college football last season. But, I expect Louisiana Monroe will be an improved team under Bowden. To what extent remains to be seen.  

We have to go back all the way to 2016 to find a year in which UK averaged 30-points per game. A 29.5 spread is a high number that would have been a difficult task for the previous Wildcat offense. The Cats exceeded 30 points in four games last season against Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Those teams combined for a 10-29 record last season. The BBN is hungry for offense. Will we see a full play book next Saturday? We’ll see. 

Under New Management

Terry Bowden takes over a program that is in complete rebuild mode in 2021. Bowden comes from coaching royalty. He’s compiled a 175-114-2 record in 25 seasons at Salem, Samford, Auburn, North Alabama, and Akron. His most notable season came in his first year at Auburn after the Tigers ran the table and finished at 11-0. Bowden spent six seasons on the Plains and departed with a 47-17-1 record. 

Rich Rodriguez joins Bowden at ULM. Rodriguez has an all-time record of 163-119-2. He was formerly the head coach at West Virginia, Michigan, and Arizona. Rodriguez sports a reputation of being a high-level offensive play caller that relies on a heavy dose of read option and tempo. The Warhawks will play fast. But, with few discernable playmakers, fast can lead to rapid three and outs which could result in additional possessions for the Wildcats. 

The ULM defense is led by 27-year old coordinator Zac Alley. He previously served on Bryan Harsin’s staff at Boise State after spending four seasons as a graduate assistant at Clemson. Alley is the youngest defensive coordinator in the nation. Kentucky has no film of an Alley called defense. The Cats are likely relying on Boise State and Clemson tape in order to establish a reference point for the opener. 

Deep Dive into the Playbook

Kentucky offensive coordinator Liam Coen is anxious to put his play calling prowess and NFL offense on full display for the Big Blue Nation. Mark Stoops will have a decision to make on Saturday. Will the Wildcat head coach treat the opener as a full dress rehearsal for an ultra-important, week-two matchup against Missouri? A deep dive into Coen’s playbook could give its upcoming opponent an abundance of personnel and film to prepare for on September 11. Another option would be to play close to the vest and give the Tigers very little content.   

All indications point to Kentucky focusing on the forward pass in 2021. Liam Coen has a vast room for improvement. The Cats finished the 2020 season ranked 122^nd in the nation after averaging 121.5 yards per game. UK’s passing game has finished last in the conference for three consecutive seasons. 

The Wildcat’s 22.1 attempts and 5.5 yards per pass attempts per game were also the lowest in the SEC last season. 

I fully expect UK to score a bunch of points next Saturday. A fast start is likely which could lead to reaching deep into the depth chart later in the game. But, Coen’s running back corps is deep and talented. I can foresee a scenario that the Wildcat’s third and fourth RB options could score multiple touchdowns in the fourth quarter by running its base plays. 

Seeing Early Tempo is a Good Thing

Early season, mobile quarterbacks that operate in an up-tempo offense have given the Cats fits in the past. Rich Rodriguez’s son Rhett is penciled in as the Warhawks week-one starter. Rodriguez transferred from Arizona after appearing in eleven games from 2017-2020. He accumulated 1,154 total yards and accounted for four touchdowns. Rodriguez completed 51% of his passes for 578-yards. ULM’s starting quarterback is one of the few starters that have been named for the opening contest. 

Louisiana Monroe tempo will present a good test for Brad White and Jon Sumrall’s defense. It will also lead the Cats into playing a base defense without the opportunity to substitute due to pace. 

The Kentucky defense doesn’t enjoy the immense room for improvement as their offensive counterparts. UK has ranked in the SEC’s Top-5 in total defense and led the conference against the pass for two consecutive seasons. The Cats have a plethora of experience to lean on at all three levels. Up to nine seniors could be on the field on any given drive which will allow the coordinators to rely on talent and technique more so than scheme in week-one. 

What Does All This Mean?

Coaches and players will address the media and speak to the challenge they’ll face against ULM. The truth of the matter is that the Cats should win the game and do so convincingly. Style points are taken into consideration in college football. But Saturday’s opener will be judged by big plays and the number of points that new coordinator Liam Coen puts on the board. 

The Cats are a 29.5-point favorite against Louisiana Monroe. I fully expect UK to roll in its opener. How it approaches the game could be the only questionable outcome for Saturday. There are two trains of thought here. First is to not show much and move on. This will prevent Mizzou from having the full variety of offensive and defensive options to study. The second is to go all out and put the offense on full display to satisfy an eager fan base that’s clamoring for excitement. Either way, Kentucky will win. 

UK’s defense will get tested by tempo. With few notable playmakers, ULM could go fast and quickly go three and out. That could result in more offensive possessions for the Wildcats. Brad White and Jon Sumrall could play a base variation in a display of gamesmanship for the upcoming Missouri game. 

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