Covering Cats: Kentucky has played well as big underdog

Kentucky is 4-6 (1-6) this season heading into the penultimate weekend. The Wildcats are having a disappointing year but have performed well against the number. Kentucky owns a 6-4 against-the-spread record (ATS) heading into Week 13. The Wildcats have exceeded pregame spread expectations in each of their non-power conference games covering big numbers against Southern Miss, Ohio, and Murray State. We’ve seen this team struggle as an SEC favorite trailing by double-digits in the fourth quarter against South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida, and Auburn.

But this program has been at its best when catching points.

The Wildcats are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and had the ball down one-possession in the fourth quarter in meetings against Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Will that strong underdog trend continue against Texas?

In the Mark Stoops era, Kentucky has been a large road dog (15+ points) 14 times. The Wildcats have produced positive results.

• 2013: Kentucky (+21) at South Carolina | Gamecocks 35, Cats 28
• 2013: Kentucky (+26) at Georgia | Bulldogs 59, Cats 17
• 2014: Kentucky (+18) at Florida | Gators 36, Cats 30
• 2015: Kentucky (+16) at Georgia | Bulldogs 27, Cats 3
• 2016: Kentucky (+16) at Florida | Gators 45, Cats 7
• 2016: Kentucky (+35) at Alabama | Crimson Tide 34, Cats 6
• 2016: Kentucky (+27) at Louisville | Cats 41, Cards 38
• 2017: Kentucky (+21) at Georgia | Bulldogs 42, Cats 13
• 2019: Kentucky (+24) at Georgia | Bulldogs 21, Cats 0
• 2020: Kentucky (+32) at Alabama | Crimson Tide 63, Cats 3
• 2020: Kentucky (+24) at Florida | Gators 34, Cats 10
• 2021: Kentucky (+21) at Georgia | Bulldogs 30, Cats 13
• 2024: Kentucky (+15.5) at Ole Miss | Cats 20, Rebels 17
• 2024: Kentucky (+17.5) at Tennessee | Vols 28, Cats 18

Kentucky is just 2-12 overall in these games with an 8-5-1 ATS mark. The Wildcats took Florida to overtime in 2016, knocked Louisville out of the Orange Bowl in 2016, recorded a late backdoor cover against No. 1 ranked Georgia in 2021, and beat a top-10 Ole Miss team outright at a sold-out Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

The Wildcats are riding a 4-0-1 ATS streak dating back to last season as a dog with outright wins against top-10 Louisville and an Ole Miss squad that has a clear path to a College Football Playoff at-large bid. All of those covers have occurred against top-10 teams.

One thing you can say about this Kentucky team is that they come up short as expectations as a favorite against power conference competition, but exceed expectations when you think a blowout loss is coming.

The Cats are currently a three-touchdown dog in the matchup against Texas. Will this recent underdog trend continue in Austin?