Kentucky's upset at Tennessee was a big NCAA Tournament resume booster

MrsTylerKSR

Jan 28, 2025; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Ansley Almonor (15) checks with the bench during the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

A loss at Tennessee would not have hurt Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume. The Vols are No. 4 in the NET Rankings and were a 10.5-point favorite at tipoff; the Cats, who were without two starters for 95% of the game, were expected to lose — which is why it’s so, so impressive that they won. And significant.

This morning, Kentucky is up four spots to No. 12 in the NET Rankings. The 78-73 victory over the Vols is now the Cats’ most impressive of the season in terms of resume. While Duke is ranked one spot higher than Tennessee in the NET, road wins are valued more than neutral site wins, putting the win on Rocky Top a notch above the early season win over the Blue Devils in the Champions Classic.

Kentucky now has seven Quad 1 wins, which ranks third in the country behind Auburn (11) and Oregon (8). As a fan pointed out on Twitter last night, Mark Pope has more Quad 1 wins this season than John Calipari (1), Dan Hurley (3), and Scott Drew (2) combined. The Cats rank fifth in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a NET metric that measures how many more wins a team has than an NCAA Tournament bubble team. Kentucky’s WAB is 4.49, which is behind Auburn (8.27), Alabama (6.07), Duke (4.78), and Iowa State (4.66). With seven of the remaining 11 games in Quad 1, the Cats have several more opportunities to improve their resume — and with those other four, some chances to hurt it.

I touched on this Monday, but the fact that all of Kentucky’s losses are in Quad 1 is also significant; the Selection Committee doesn’t punish teams as much for losses to “good” teams. That makes it doubly important not to lose to “bad” teams, especially at home. Of the four remaining games outside Quad 1, three are in Quad 2 (Arkansas, Vanderbilt, LSU) and one in Quad 3 (South Carolina). All of those are at Rupp. Kentucky cannot afford to drop any of them, starting with Saturday’s emotional game vs. John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks.

Kentucky’s Remaining Schedule by Quad

Date	Opponent	NET Ranking	Result
02/01/2025	Arkansas	56	Quad 2
02/04/2025	@ Ole Miss	21	Quad 1A
02/08/2025	South Carolina	92	Quad 3
02/11/2025	Tennessee	4	Quad 1A
02/15/2025	@ Texas	32	Quad 1A
02/19/2025	Vanderbilt	38	Quad 2
02/22/2025	@ Alabama	7	Quad 1A
02/26/2025	@ Oklahoma	46	Quad 1B
03/01/2025	Auburn	1	Quad 1A
03/04/2025	LSU	67	Quad 2
03/08/2025	@ Missouri	26	Quad 1A

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For what it’s worth, Joe Lunardi kept Kentucky on the No. 3 seed line as the No. 11 team overall (or maybe No. 10, he’s got a typo). Yesterday, the Cats were No. 12.

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pic.twitter.com/H6h4SwFSjt
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 29, 2025

KenPom projections looking rosier too

Kentucky also moved up in the KenPom ratings with the win, from No. 22 to No. 19. The Cats’ offense is No. 3 in adjusted efficiency and defense No. 75. That latter number isn’t great, but is moving in the right direction.

Kentucky is now 4-3 in the SEC. Before last night’s game, KenPom projected Kentucky to finish the regular season with a 9-9 record in conference play. One of those losses was to Tennessee. Obviously, that’s a win now, and following the result, KenPom has Kentucky finishing SEC play with an 11-7 record. Here are KenPom’s game-by-game projections for the rest of the way:

Arkansas – W (84% chance of winning)
at Ole Miss – L (42%)
South Carolina – W (88%)
Tennessee – W (51%)
at Texas – W (52%)
Vanderbilt – W (80%)
at Alabama – L (30%)
at Oklahoma – W (53%)
Auburn – W (34%)
LSU – W (86%)
at Missouri – L (49%)

We’ll wait until tonight’s SEC games wrap to go in-depth on this, but Kentucky is currently tied for fourth in KenPom’s projected SEC standings with Tennessee and Texas A&M. In this scenario, the Cats would win the tiebreaker for the No. 4 seed thanks to wins over Tennessee and A&M. That would mean clinching the double bye and playing in the second game on Friday afternoon with a potential semifinal game vs. Auburn on Saturday. On Sunday, we were worrying about Kentucky playing on Wednesday.

What a difference a big win makes.