Possessions could be extremely limited when Kentucky faces Vanderbilt

Kentucky will return home to Kroger Field after a good week-plus run for the program that saw the Wildcats shock No. 6 Ole Miss and then take some time to heal up as upset carnage occurred throughout the college football landscape over the weekend. Vanderbilt was the top anarchy creator in Week 6.

Powered by dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia, Vandy put on a masterclass in ball control offense during the 40-35 upset win over Alabama. The SEC program’s unique option scheme got off 75 snaps in nine possessions scoring 33 offensive points thanks largely to a 13-of-19 mark on third/fourth down. The Commodores stayed ahead of the chains and converted 6-of-7 short-yardage situations on money downs.

In Kentucky’s victory over Ole Miss, a ball control offense got off 72 snaps in 10 non-kneel possessions scoring 20 points. The Wildcats were only 7-of-19 on third/fourth down but won in some key situations. The upset was made possible due to UK keeping the high-octane Ole Miss offense off the field.

Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea and Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops both want to play a specific brand of football. That could create a very short game if defenses do not win on third and fourth down.

“I think it’s important as a team with the way we our methodical as well with the possessions and the way we drive on offense and the way they do it,” Stoops told the media on Monday. “Obviously, we’re both searching for explosive plays off of what we do. We’re looking for explosive plays.”

“It definitely can be a short game, and that makes the margin for error shrink. So it’s important for defenses to get off the field of course.”

Kentucky enters the game ranked No. 14 overall in third down conversion defense (30%), but Vanderbilt is coming off a performance where they consistently moved the chains against an Alabama defense that ranks No. 8 overall in third down conversion defense (28%). What happens on third down could swing the game one way or another on Saturday night.

The game between Kentucky and Vanderbilt could very much play out like an NFL game. Unless there are big explosive play touchdowns, both teams will possess the ball for a long time, and that will magnify both mistakes and missed opportunities. The Commodores have only one turnover through five games, and that ball security makes them a tough out. However, Kentucky leads all power conference teams in havoc rate. Will that disruption lead to some takeaways?

“Points are going to be at a premium, and obviously in a game like this, turnovers are going to be hugely important,” Stoops explained.

Expect a quick game on Saturday that could be low-scoring. One big explosive play touchdown, takeaway, or a couple of third down stops could turn a close game into a double-digit lead that might be insurmountable.