Kentucky Football’s Goals vs. Vanderbilt

I’m a numbers guy; always have been, always will be. Football teams are who they are based on statistics. The 2023 Kentucky Wildcats have racked up some impressive numbers through three games of play.  

Liam Coen’s second go-around has numerically exceeded his first in most major categories. In fact, Kentucky is ranked second in the nation by averaging .775 points per play. Yards per snap is another encouraging digit. The Cats are cruising to 7.58 yards per play. Kentucky also leads the SEC with 5.63 yards per rushing attempt.

Contrary to popular belief, offensive line numbers are the best in many years which include the rushing stat listed in the previous sentence. Stoops’ OL has allowed just three QB sacks in three games; that number and ratio lead the SEC. The big fellas up front have also given up a mere 13 tackles for loss. This puts the Wildcats third in the conference. In 2022, the Cats were at the bottom of the league in allowing explosives.  

Year after year, Brad White does Brad White things. The coordinator has fielded four consecutive defensive units that finished in the top five of the SEC. This year’s variety is second in the conference in scoring by giving up just 11.3 points per outing. The Cats are also ranked second in rush yards allowed per game with 71. White’s crew sits at 23rd in the nation after opponents have averaged 4.38 yards per offensive snap. Special teams numbers are even better. The ESPN SP+ rankings have Kentucky third in overall special teams efficiency.  

That’s a lot of numbers and statistical categories to throw at you on a Thursday. Numbers are numbers and cannot be argued. But, that’s not stopped a vocal minority of the BBN from taking to social media to remind this writer and several others that Kentucky has faced a couple of MAC opponents and an FCS team in EKU. I get it. I understand. We were aware.  

Stats must be taken in context based on strength of schedule. So, add the Cats’ non-conference slate with an offense that habitually gets in its own way at times, and some, not all, Wildcat followers are a little wobbly about beginning SEC play at Vanderbilt on Saturday. Let’s get into Kentucky’s goals vs. Vandy.  

OFFENSE 

You can read the numbers in the opening segment of this article. I’m not going to regurgitate them again. It’s well established that the Kentucky offense is explosive and has weapons all over the field. Efficiency and explosive numbers support that fact. However, Coen’s unit lacked situational awareness at critical moments of the first three games.  

Errant snaps, dropped passes, inaccurate throws, and pre and post-snap penalties have been far too common. In terms of penalties, the timing of the flags has been less than ideal. Pre-snap procedure errors have mainly occurred on 1^st and 3^rd downs. Holding calls have brought back touchdowns and explosives. Regardless of which down or type of infractions, the Cats need to clean this up. And now.  

The guardrails are now off. Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt. But if my memory is accurate, Clark Lea beat Mark Stoops in Lexington a year ago. The absolute last thing that Kentucky can do to expect to win this game is to leave it up to the stripes in the fourth quarter. Kentucky has to determine its own destiny on Saturday.  

As stated before, dropped passes have also been an issue. At times, it appears that the Cats are forcing the issue and counting catches rather than distributing the football to the open pass catcher. Kentucky is incurring far too many 2nd and 10s from these actions. Much like untimely and costly penalties, the time to pad stats is over. Individual numbers don’t move light bulbs on the scoreboard.  

Devin Leary also needs to make the easies look easy. That was his strength at NC State. He’s now four games in. It’s time for him to raise his completion percentage to around 70. He would be there now if not for the drops, so again, context.  

The offensive line is the best it’s been in many years based on numbers. But, Leary’s ability to navigate the pocket and still complete passes downfield has given the OL an assist in some of these categories. Vanderbilt is allowing 29 points per game. Opponents have thrown for 242 yards per outing and rushed for 148. The Cats will have chances to move the ball and score. IF and only IF it cuts out the dumb stuff. Opponents are also moving the chains on 48% on 3^rd down.  

The Commodores are handy in terms of tackles for loss after recording 26 on the season. VU has also registered 9 QB sacks. A great deal of those numbers have come from one player. You can read about him in a minute.  

Let’s get into goals vs. the Commodores.

Mature and Clock In

See above. SEC action requires an 11-man, TEAM-FIRST attitude to gain W’s. This especially applies to the passing game. Quarterback Devin Leary is at his best when he can scan the field and find the open receiver. Routes need to be technically sound even if the pass is pre-designed to go elsewhere.  

Patterns will be required to be executed more linearly than rounding. In all, the passing game has been good in Coen’s second season in Lexington. It could be excellent. FYI, I don’t use the word “great” very often. The Vanderbilt pass defense is suspect at best. The Commodores are giving up 241 yards per contest and are dealing with a plethora of secondary injuries. Most will be game-time decisions.  

This category also references the offensive line. Clock In. What does that mean? Snap to whistle, sixty minutes of physical assignment sound football. Hit targets, or identify and make technically sound contact with the assigned defender.  

Kenneth Horsey may be back in action. If so, UK needs his veteran presence, especially for an eleven o’clock morning kickoff.  Breakfast-time kicks can be challenging. Snaps also must be accurate and timely. This hurt the Cats a week ago. I know Jager Burton. I know his family. There’s not a player on the team that loves Kentucky more or tries as hard. The sophomore simply needs to relax and play. He’ll be just fine.  

Vanderbilt “Anchor” CJ Taylor is a Dude and must be accounted for at all times. He’s already recorded 30 tackles, 3 QB sacks, and 5.5 tackles for loss. Taylor is the primary disruptor for the Vanderbilt defense and accounted for the majority of TFLs and sacks.  

Pitch and Catch

This is self-explanatory. Too many drops. Too many easy, errant passes and miscommunications have occurred at inopportune times. To win on Saturday, Kentucky needs to be around 67% through the air. Vanderbilt has several injuries in the secondary which could increase the Cats’ success rate through the air.   

One player to watch out for is safety De’Rickey Wright. Full disclosure, I voted Wright 1^st Team All-SEC at Media Days. I’m a huge fan of his game. He’s battling injuries like most of the VU secondary right now. Wright is long and can flat-out cover some ground in a hurry. Windows are going to close faster and be tighter on Saturday than they’ve been in Kentucky’s previous three outings. Wright has intercepted two passes and recorded a forced fumble and a fumble recovery so far this season. He’s disruptive and can change the scoreboard. Much like Taylor, Wright must be pointed out pre-snap and closely monitored till the whistle.

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DEFENSE 

I’m not sure if Brad White is a golfer or not, but I’d assume that he’d like to take a Mulligan for his defense’s performance against Vanderbilt a season ago. Current Cat and former Commodore Ray Davis lit up the Cats for over 100 yards. Based on quality of opponent, last year’s contest was one of the least effective games for a UK defense in quite a while.  

A running quarterback aggravatingly extended drives and got the football to star WR Will Sheppard when it mattered to win the game. The prized Vandy pass catcher is back and he’s a Dude. Sheppard has grabbed 25 passes for 314 yards, and 6 touchdowns this season. He’s joined by even more dynamic pass catchers and a true pocket passing quarterback in AJ Swann. VU is averaging 400 total yards per game. A vast majority, as stated many times, is generated by the passing attack to the tune of 288 yards per outing. The Commodores are also solid by converting 48% on 3^rd down. Let’s get into goals, shall we?  

Pack a Lunch

What do most Americans put their lunch in when taking it to school or work? A sack. That’s right. At a minimum, two VU offensive linemen are doubtful for Saturday. This, along with the Commodores’ pass-happy play sheet, sets up nicely for the Cats to have ample opportunities to get after quarterback AJ Swann. Getting him to the turf is the key.  

Vandy is giving up 2.25 QB sacks per game. Comparatively, Kentucky has averaged allowing one per contest. JJ Weaver has just one sack in three games. The senior needs to have a breakout game in Nashville. Linebacker Trevin Wallace is tied for first in the SEC with 3.5 QB sacks. Regardless of what level produces the sack, the Cats should be able to get home.  

Deone Walker is inches away from being the SEC’s leader in QB sacks. Close won’t cut it on Saturday. His fellow DL mates have created pressure. Finishing with a QB sack will be enormous if UK can make it happen. I’m shooting for 4 sacks as the optimal number.  

Paint the Corners

I played a little baseball back in the day. My Tri-Cities Little League Coach Chuck Sturgill would often tell me to, “Paint the corners.” This means, don’t throw the pitch down the middle of the plate where the hitters have the advantage. Make it more difficult on the batters by blurring the strike zone. The Braves won the title that year by the way. Had to throw that in there, sorry.  

How does this relate to the Kentucky-Vanderbilt football game? Simple really. The UK defense can’t make it easier for Vanderbilt’s trio of explosive playmakers to make explosive plays downfield. They are more than capable, mind you.  

Coverages will likely be more disguised than White has shown so far. Additionally, getting hands-on or jamming the Commodore pass catchers at the line of scrimmage can also knock the speedsters off their routes and disturb timing with the quarterback. Thus, make hitting the home run shots more difficult by design, execution, and systemic accuracy.  

Will Sheppard’s numbers are listed above. He’s joined by Jayden McGowan and London Humphreys. Their stats are quite impressive. McGowan has caught 23 passes for 295 yards. He currently is averaging 13 yards per reception. London Humphreys’ stats are incredible. The speedster is averaging a mind-blowing 30 yards per grab and has scored three touchdowns. As a group, Vanderbilt has one of the most forceful pass-catching trios in the SEC.  

Kentucky has been solid against the pass in 2023. UK is allowing 211 yards per game. Opponents are averaging just over 7 yards per passing attempt. This stat is an important number when analyzing football teams. The Cats have given up two passing touchdowns but only intercepted one pass. A number to watch for on Saturday is again, “passes defended.” That number is determined by adding pass breakups to interceptions. The goal is 4 on Saturday.  

In summary, Vanderbilt will test the Wildcats’ pass defense. Holding VU to less than 225 yards on the night will be optimal. Perhaps the most impactful number for this particular game is yards per catch. VU is averaging an explosive 14.4 yards per reception. That number can’t exceed 10 on Saturday. This is a non-negotiable as Ryan Lemond puts it.

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Let’s get back to numbers. The Mothership has the Cats’ special teams ranked third in the nation. This listing is based on overall efficiency. It’s more than evident that Jay Boulware has rejuvenated the third phase. A solid performance would be great, but my appetite is much larger.  

Go Win the Game

Will Faris has 26 kickoffs on the season; 12 of those reached the end zone or were not returned. A 46.1% return ratio could be in favor of Kentucky. Barion Brown may get chances for explosives. The sophomore missed a lane last week. I’d guess adjustments have been made.  

“Go Win the Game” just doesn’t apply to Brown and the return game. Contests like this are normally decided by turnover margin and special teams. The Cats lost games a year ago just from a sub-par third phase. A blocked kick or punt or a forced fumble would go miles even at that stadium where noise is driven by the opposing team. Momentum will be critical.  

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? 

Let’s do some catchphrases. The guardrails come off on Saturday. It’s time for Stoops to take the training wheels off. You get the picture.  

Both sayings are adequate when describing Saturday’s SEC matchup against Vanderbilt. The preseason is over. Let’s just call the first three games what it really was: a warmup.  No disrespect intended. These games now count in conference rankings. The first one up is against Clark Lea and the Vanderbilt Commodores.  

There wasn’t a more sickening feeling for the BBN than leaving Kroger Field with an L against the Commodores a year ago. Offensive frustrations built early and remained for the entirety of the schedule. The UK offense was hard to watch in 2022. Clunky may have been a compliment to what we witnessed from the Wildcats’ special teams and offense last season. However, taking the L to Vandy was the season’s low point. I thought Kentucky was past that. Man, was I ever wrong.  

Vanderbilt didn’t just beat Kentucky, Lea’s team whipped up on the Cats. Vanderbilt was the more physical team and executed at a higher level. VU out-coached and out-played UK in all three phases and certainly deserved to leave Lexington with a rare conference victory. In a strange sense of reality, I was happy for them. Heck, I was proud. Sometimes you just have to just tip your cap.  

2023 is a new year and a different team for both head coaches. Ray Davis is now a Cat. Kentucky has multiple new starters, as do the Commodores. Both will be fighting for a leg up in the East.  

This is no longer a gimme game for the Cats. A win in Nashville will have to be earned, not given. Can Kentucky string together four quarters of complimentary and efficient football in all three phases? We’ll see. Can Stoops and staff give his team an early wake-up call and have them motivated to win at 11:00 a.m. local? I think so.  

There have been complaints about this team. The numbers don’t support the negativity. I have a feeling we’ll get to know the true identity of the Cats on Saturday in Nashville.

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