KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt

After letting go of the rope at Texas, Kentucky now faces a must-win situation vs. Vanderbilt. The Commodores won the first meeting in Nashville on Jan. 25, a game in which the Cats led by seven with eight and a half minutes to go before shooting themselves in the foot with mistakes and turnovers (sound familiar?). Since that matchup, Vanderbilt has lost four of its last five games — three to ranked opponents — most recently blowing a 16-point lead vs. Tennessee in Knoxville.

Can Kentucky avenge its loss to the Commodores and get back in the win column without Jaxson Robinson (wrist) and Lamont Butler (shoulder)? Ready or not, the KSR crew is weighing in.

Tyler Thompson

Kentucky’s loss to Vanderbilt in Nashville last month was disappointing, and at Texas on Saturday, the Cats showed some of those same bad habits, turning the ball over far too often and letting a win slip through their fingers (paws?). Ball security will be at a premium tonight, with Vandy second in the league in forcing turnovers and Kentucky dead last. That’s especially worrisome considering the Cats will be without Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson.

Thankfully, if there’s a team better than Kentucky at shooting itself in the foot right now, it’s Vandy. The ‘Dores led Florida and Tennessee at half and had an early second-half lead vs. Auburn. They lost all three games, two by double digits, and at Oklahoma by 30. Vanderbilt has been especially bad on the road, just 1-5 in SEC play. There’s a reason why Kentucky is favored in this game, even if only by 5.5 points.

Kentucky can’t afford to lose this game. It’s one of two non-Quad 1 games left this season, meaning the Selection Committee could have ample reason to punish the Cats if they lose. For what it’s worth, I don’t think they will. After failing to make a single field goal at Texas, Koby Brea will come alive in the comfy confines of Rupp. Andrew Carr, who did not play in the first meeting last month, can have an impact inside against the undersized ‘Dores. Surely, Amari Williams will score more than the six points he had in Nashville.

Kentucky takes care of business, but it may not be pretty.

Score: Kentucky 84, Vanderbilt 77

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Adam Luckett

A monster game has arrived for Kentucky in SEC play with Lamont Butler, Jaxson Robinson, and Kerr Kriisa all unavailable. The NCAA Tournament resume is in good shape, but a loss could get Kentucky one step closer to playing on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament and could become the second loss of a three-game losing streak. That is something you never want.

I think we’ll see Kentucky take care of business at Rupp Arena.

Vanderbilt needed 12 three-point field goals and 17 forced turnovers to earn a five-point win over Kentucky. The turnover issue is a massive worry going into this game, but Kentucky is a good three-point defense performance away from being in good shape.

The pace will pick up for Vanderbilt away from home and this team has struggled to get stops. That trend will continue against UK. Amari Williams and Koby Brea respond after subpar performances in the first meeting in Nashville.

Kentucky pours in some threes, does not let the turnovers derail them, and leaves Wednesday with another SEC victory.

Score: Kentucky 87, Vanderbilt 81

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Zack Geoghegan

The last time these two teams met, Kentucky played two completely different halves of basketball. The first half was arguably the worst offensive performance of the season as the Wildcats shot under 38 percent and turned the ball over 10 times. Vanderbilt led by 14 at the break. But UK outscored the Commodores by nine in the second half and led by as many as seven points with eight minutes to play. But similar to what we saw in Texas, Kentucky coughed the win away down the stretch.

Mark Pope’s team learned from those mistakes though, taking a shorthanded roster on the road to beat a Top 10 Tennessee team the next time out. Will we see another timely bounce back from the ‘Cats tonight? We should, especially back inside Rupp Arena. Vanderbilt currently owns the worst defense in the entire SEC — one spot ahead of UK! Minimal turnovers have allowed the ‘Dores to stay close in recent games, but a lack of efficient scoring is costing them down the stretch.

As long as Koby Brea knocks in a couple of threes, Kentucky should be fine.

Score: Kentucky 85, Vanderbilt 81

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Nick Roush

I am officially worried.

Jason Edwards is no Tre Johnson, but the point guard can fill it up. He’s probably going to do that tonight at Rupp Arena. The question that I believe defines the game: How well will Kentucky score?

The Vanderbilt defense does not defend well, and they love to play with tempo. It should create some open opportunities. Those haven’t fallen as easily as of late. The Cats need the trio of Ansley Almonor, Travis Perry, and Trent Noah to combine for at least five threes to ensure that Kentucky has enough firepower to win.

This Kentucky basketball team is pretty good at taking the coaching from Mark Pope. Tonight’s point of emphasis should be limiting turnovers. If they just get up shots instead of leaving eight extra empty possessions, that should be enough for Kentucky to outscore the Commodores and escape with a win.

Kentucky 88, Vanderbilt 85

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Jack Pilgrim

Kentucky’s injury situation is a disaster, but it’s no different today than it was in Austin when the Cats had the Longhorns on the ropes with a single segment to go. They crumbled down the stretch, but they were in position to win no less — then saw the best of a desperate Texas team take advantage of their untimely miscues. Vanderbilt has five SEC wins with two against top-10 competition, one of those against the blue and white to put the Commodores solidly in the NCAA Tournament field as an at-large. They’re not playing for their postseason lives while Kentucky has the revenge factor on its side while also playing at Rupp Arena.

It’s the second-easiest game on the schedule left for the Wildcats as a Quad 2, behind only LSU at home on March 3 as a Quad 3. The other four are Quad 1s — three away from home. You hate throwing the must-win phrase around too often, but this one probably qualifies. Shorthanded or not, they just have to find a way to get this one, even if it’s not the prettiest performance we’ve ever seen.

Koby Brea’s 3-point streak of 24 straight games with a make came to an end at Texas and he didn’t have his best performance in the first matchup in Nashville, finishing with three points on 1-5 shooting. He’s due and hungry for a bounce-back performance. He leads the way in scoring as the Wildcats earn the hard-fought win down the stretch.

Score: Kentucky 86, Vanderbilt 79

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Drew Franklin

Kentucky missed a big opportunity in Texas, narrowly losing a Quad 1 game that could’ve bolstered its postseason resume. The Wildcats had the game in hand until collapsing down the stretch into a loss, the sixth in conference play.

To avoid a seventh loss and a sub-500 SEC record with five games to go, Wednesday night’s game against Vanderbilt in Rupp Arena is a must-win. UK strung together two home wins since losing to Arkansas in Lexington, and it will need to win at least two of its last three at home, beginning with the Commodores, a team that already has a 1-0 edge in the regular-season series.

The roster is what it is at this stage, so the Cats need to knock down shots to make up for the missing ballhandling and leadership. Much of the shooting load will fall on Koby Brea, who hit three of six 3-pointers in the home win over Tennessee before going ice-cold in Austin, Texas (0-6 from the field). Back at home, Brea will help Kentucky make 10 or more 3s as a team, in addition to 3-point contributions from Trent Noah, Ansley Almonor, and Travis Perry. Also, Amari Williams will continue his tear through the SEC, avenging his six-point, five-rebound game in Nashville with a double-double and a Cats win.

Score: Kentucky 87, Vanderbilt 81

Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Television: SEC Network (Roy Philpott and Daymeon Fishback)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 84
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.