What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt

Kentucky is back at home at Kroger Field for the third night kickoff of the season. Vanderbilt is coming to town riding quite the high after taking down No. 1 Alabama at home last week. A big game week has unexpectedly arrived in the Bluegrass.

After a week full of previewing the big SEC matchup, now feels like the proper time to take a step back and recap what we learned this week. What does Kentucky need to get a home win in a big spot? Let’s dive in.

Diego Pavia is Vanderbilt’s star

The Vanderbilt program was dead in the water following a 2-10 (0-8) season in 2023. Clark Lea made some big changes highlighted by a massive offensive overhaul. That included bringing the entire New Mexico State offensive brain trust to Nashville.

Diego Pavia was the 2023 Conference USA Player of the Year and has quickly become this program’s most-known player since Jay Cutler in just a few weeks.

The C-USA transfer is currently on pace to finish the regular season with 2,335 passing yards, 938 rushing yards, and 24 total touchdowns. Pavia carries a heavy load in the non-sack run game leading the team in attempts (88) and non-sack rushing yards (394). The former junior college player is averaging over nine yards per attempt while completing 66.7 percent of his 21 passes per game. Vandy ranks No. 8 nationally in passing EPA/play. Much of that is due to the quarterback lulling the defense to sleep with strong playfakes before showing off accuracy down the field.

Pavia has been the engine and the alpha of this new-look Vanderbilt program. To slow them down, Kentucky must find a way to slow Pavia down. No one has done that yet.

Vanderbilt has massive problems on defense again

The other big change head coach Clark Lea decided to make heading into year four was taking over the defensive play-calling. Vanderbilt has made some strides, but this still looks like one of the worst power conference defenses in college football again.

Four FBS offenses are averaging 32 points per game and 6.36 yards per play against Vandy. Missouri’s score total was boosted by overtime, but the Tigers missed three field goal attempts in regulation. This will be the worst power conference defense Kentucky will likely face this season fresh off seeing three consecutive top-25 defenses to begin conference play.

Vanderbilt plays aggressively but is losing a lot of battles in coverage and has struggled to tackle (51 missed tackles) through five games. Most notably, yards can be created on the perimeter after contact. The Commodores are young at multiple spots and have made some improvements, but this is a defense that is struggling.

This should be a good spot for the Kentucky offense to perhaps have their best performance of the season.

Ball security has been elite for Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s new offense is giving a lot of defenses problems. The Commodores have reached at least 20 points in regulation through five games and got to 40 points against Alabama. This is a ball-control offense with numerous option principles. Vandy stays ahead of the chains, wins on third down, and finishes in the red zone.

They also do a great job of protecting the football.

Vanderbilt only has one turnover through five games. The Commodores simply do not beat themselves and constantly put pressure on defenses with their offensive scheme. The ball security has allowed this offense to reach a different level. Kentucky will be in for a dogfight if they cannot force some takeaways.