What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt

Week 4 is here, and it’s time to play some SEC ball. After a quick homestand got Kentucky off to a 3-0 start, now it’s time to see what the Wildcats have in the fold when eight consecutive SEC games begin on Saturday.

One year after dropping a home game to Kentucky against Vanderbilt as a three-possession underdog, Kentucky finds itself in a revenge spot. Now feels like a good time to take a look at where everything stands before the SEC opener.

This is a game that Kentucky needs to win. Let’s take a quick look back at what we learned this week before toe meets leather at FirstBank Stadium on Saturday morning in Nashville.

Vanderbilt is banged up

For many reasons, this is a critical football game for Clark Lea‘s program. The Commodores are fresh off consecutive non-conference losses to Wake Forest and UNLV. This season could get quickly out of hand with eight consecutive SEC games on the slate.

The Commodores haven’t even gotten into the grind of the season and this is already a banged-up football team.

Starting right tackle Junior Uzebu and No. 3 safety Savion Riley have both been ruled out for Week 4 by Lea. Starting safety De’Rickey Wright did not practice this week and will be a game-time decision with an ankle injury. Another starting safety Jaylen Mahoney (hip) only practiced one day this week. Uzebu’s replacement at right tackle, redshirt freshman Grayson Morgan, is also dealing with an injury (back).

The injuries do not stop there. Quarterback AJ Swann suffered an elbow injury last week but will play through it. CJ Taylor is Vandy’s best defensive player, and the linebacker/safety missed some time in the game last week and was not 100 percent full-go at practice this week.

Vanderbilt is dealing with some unfortunate injury luck.

Feast or famine passing game

One of the big reasons for optimism for Vanderbilt football was due to what was returning at quarterback. AJ Swann was a significant recruiting win for this program, and the former top-500 recruit looked like a potential dude behind center as a true freshman.

For Vandy to make a run at bowl eligibility, Swann would need to become a top-half quarterback in the SEC. He has shown glimpses of splash playmaking but is also making a ton of mistakes.

The sophomore leads college football in completions of 20-plus air yards (14), according to PFF data. Swann trails only Michael Penix Jr. in 30-plus yard completions. Vandy’s offense can connect on home runs in the passing game, but efficiency (57.1% completion rate, 41.5% passing success rate) has been a problem. So have havoc plays. Over 20 percent of Swann’s 133 passes have ended in an interception (4) or pass breakup (24). Ball security is an issue, but the young quarterback can put up points when given protection.

Vanderbilt has real talent at wide receiver led by star Will Sheppard. Kentucky’s secondary will be tested but there should be some opportunities for turnovers.

Bad defense with one strength

Vanderbilt has yet to field a good defense under Clark Lea. Through 16 quarters, it does not look like this year’s unit will be a good one.

The Commodores might have the worst defense in the SEC again. Nick Howell‘s defense ranks No. 90 in points per drive, No. 91 in EPA/play, and No. 109 in third/fourth down efficiency. Creating stops is a problem for Vandy everywhere but the red zone.

Offenses have created 16 red zone possessions through four games, but the Commodores have only allowed five red zone touchdowns. Vanderbilt’s defense enters Week 4 ranked No. 8 in red zone touchdown percentage (31.25%). In the upset win at Kroger Field last season, Kentucky scored only one touchdown in four red zone trips.

Finishing drives was a point of emphasis for Kentucky football in the offseason. The upset recipe for Vandy will include more red zone stops. Kentucky must score touchdowns to take care of business. We’ll find out how improved the red zone operation is on Saturday.