Kentucky vs. Alabama: KSR Staff Predictions

Senior Day in Lexington is upon us, and with it comes the eighth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide to Kroger Field. Nick Saban’s super-program is Kentucky‘s opponent in the Wildcats’ final home game of 2023, set for a noon kickoff on ESPN.

The Cats enter the game having won at Starkville for the first time since 2008, while Bama laces its cleats back up after beating No. 14 LSU by two touchdowns in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is on a seven-game win streak and still in the College Football Playoff hunt with only one loss all season.

Here’s how the KSR crew sees Saturday playing out in Lexington.

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Tyler Thompson

I definitely feel better about Kentucky Football today than two weeks ago. The Cats’ passing game is finally off the ground and they took care of business vs. a bad Mississippi State team on the road. That said, Alabama’s momentum is on a different level. After a slow start, the Crimson Tide have hit their stride thanks to Jalen Milroe. To beat Alabama for just the third time in program history, the Cats don’t need to play a perfect game, but they must avoid the mistakes that have plagued them all season.

Is tomorrow the day Kentucky puts it all together? The Cats have flashed through the air in recent games, but to have success against the Crimson Tide, they need to run the ball too. I worry about Kentucky’s vulnerable secondary vs. Jalen Milroe. While they may not be the juggernauts of years past, Bama is still Bama and Nick Saban is the best in the business. Mistakes will be pounced on. Flaws will be exposed.

As much as I’d like to flash back to 1997 and burn a couch, given the Cats’ inconsistency this season, I don’t see it happening — but I do think it’ll be close heading into the fourth quarter.

Score: Alabama 31, Kentucky 24

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Adam Luckett

Alabama is firmly in the College Football Playoff hunt and is one conference win away from locking up a trip to Atlanta for another SEC Championship Game appearance. The Tide is winning with a run-heavy offense that hits explosive plays in the passing game and a well-rounded top-10 defense.

Kentucky enters the Week 11 contest looking to fair better in their fourth game against a ranked foe in the last six weeks. The Wildcats have had multiple issues arrive against the best teams on their schedule, but will get to take a swing at the king of college football in Kroger Field for the first time in a decade.

When taking a closer look at the matchup, Alabama has some limitations on offense and can stall out if explosive passing plays are taken away. That is typically what Kentucky tries to eliminate first. I believe we’ll see a spirited effort from Kentucky’s defense that keeps the home team in the game through all four quarters. Unfortunately, Kentucky won’t be able to find enough offense against a defense with a stout front seven, lethal edge rushers, and two first-round cornerbacks.

The Cats play one of their best games of the season but fall short again versus a ranked opponent.

Score: Alabama 24, Kentucky 16

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Zack Geoghegan

This game is going to come down to Devin Leary. After back-to-back impressive outings, how does he perform against one of the best defensive units in the country? While he looked good on the road against Mississippi State, 156 passing yards isn’t going to cut it against the Crimson Tide. Leary needs to hit 300-plus through the air for Kentucky to have a true chance. Anything short of a special performance from QB1 will likely end in a two-score loss for the Wildcats — and even that might not be enough to make it close.

Alabama is still Alabama and Nick Saban is still the best coach in the country. Jalen Milroe has been playing like a top-five signal-caller in the nation as of late. Kentucky has historically struggled against running quarterbacks — Milroe rattled off 155 yards and four touchdowns on the ground against LSU last week. On both sides of the field, Kentucky is going to need a near-perfect showing to pull off the upset. I don’t see that happening.

Score: Alabama 35, Kentucky 21

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Nick Roush

This blogger is not going to create delusions of grandeur ahead of a matchup with Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide. Instead I will be taking my mother’s advice, ‘prepare for the worst and hope for the best.’

Offensively, I’m concerned about the Kentucky pass-catchers’ ability to create separation against an Alabama secondary that’s loaded with future pros. However, they could create a couple early explosive plays that allows Ray Davis to remain a part of the game until the second half. My greater concerns are on the other side of the line of scrimmage.

As Adam Luckett pointed out on Pigskin Preview, the Crimson Tide is not an offensive juggernaut. They’ve played most of their games in the 20s. A strip sack got them over 30 against Tennessee and LSU’s defense might be the worst Power Five defense not once coached by Alex Grinch. Even so, their explosiveness has made them efficient on paper. Alabama’s offense ranks No. 12 in efficiency by SP+. When Kentucky has played Top 25 offenses this fall, bad things have happened.

I worry that the Kentucky defense will not be able to limit explosives and keep the Cats in the game in the fourth quarter. Hopefully, I’m wrong. It would not be the first time.

Score: Alabama 38, Kentucky 20

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Jack Pilgrim

Devin Leary avoided serious injury in Kentucky’s win at Mississippi State, giving the Wildcats a chance to avoid embarrassment at home against Alabama. He’s been dealing, finally emerging as the surgical quarterback the program brought him in to be out of the transfer portal. And his receivers have been giving him some help — half the battle, especially in terms of trust and confidence.

But Alabama is still Alabama and Nick Saban is still Nick Saban. It may not be the juggernaut it has been in recent years, but the roster remains loaded with pro talent on both sides of the football.

Stoops has knocked down countless barriers since arriving in Lexington, firmly solidifying Kentucky as a consistent top-three program in the SEC East. The Wildcats haven’t yet proven, though, that they are ready to take the next step as a legitimate contender in the conference capable of beating the likes of Alabama and Georgia.

Maybe one day. And I don’t believe that day is Saturday.

Score: Alabama 38, Kentucky 24

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Drew Franklin

Before the season began, I predicted Kentucky would upset Alabama on November 11. I said it on several radio shows going all the way back to April, that Kentucky would catch Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide off guard and pull off the monumental upset on Senior Day.

However, now that I’ve seen each team play nine football games, I’ve backpedaled a bit on my confidence behind that prediction. Alabama is back to playing elite football and squarely in the national championship hunt. Jalen Milroe is one of the best players in the country and I, a dummy, mistakenly doubted Saban going into 2023.

But, I said what I said. And I’m not flipping that prediction today or tomorrow. Do I love it? No. I don’t love it all. But I keep telling myself that a double-digit underdog wins every weekend in college football, so why not Kentucky this Saturday at Kroger Field? It will take a near-perfect game from the Cats and a career day from Devin Leary, no doubt. Probably two or three takeaways, too.

So, let’s go ahead and do all of those things, then touch some goalposts. Alexa, play Grove Street Party.

Score: Kentucky 27, Alabama 24