KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Duke

After hitting the century mark in back-to-back blowout wins, it’s time to see what this Kentucky team is really made of. The No. 19 Cats take on the No. 6 Duke Blue Devils in the nightcap of the Champions Classic in Atlanta (9 p.m. ET, ESPN), one of the most anticipated regular-season games in recent memory.

Everyone in college basketball is talking about Duke superstar freshman Cooper Flagg, who is projected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Can Mark Pope’s veteran squad slow down Flagg, fellow freshmen standouts Kon Kneuppel and Khaman Maluach, and the rest of the Blue Devils? If so, they’ll be reversing some bad history. Kentucky is 5-8 in the Champions Classic, losing the last four games. Duke owns a 3-1 edge over Kentucky in the event and is a 6.5-point favorite.

Will Pope and the Cats shock the world? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in with our predictions.

Tyler Thompson

The Champions Classic has not been kind to Kentucky, especially when the Cats face Duke. Kentucky typically comes into this matchup with an inflated preseason ranking and sky-high expectations only to stumble. This year, it feels like the Cats are playing with house money. Not only is it Mark Pope‘s first season in Lexington, but everyone expects Duke to win because of the talent gap. If Kentucky loses tonight, albeit by a respectable margin, no one would think much less of the Cats. The story would just be the Blue Devils and Flagg.

For that reason, I have Kentucky flipping the script. We’ve seen what this event can do to talented freshmen. More often than not, they’re not ready for the spotlight. Flagg is one of three rookies on Duke’s roster projected to go in the top ten of the draft. Big game jitters are going to get to at least one of them. They will not get to Mark Pope, who I bet has been putting in extra hours preparing for the Blue Devils. I like Pope’s game plan, Kentucky’s experience, and some hot shooting on a night to remember in Catlanta, or, as Quade Green called it, Cat City.

Score: Kentucky 87, Duke 83

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Drew Franklin

For too many years, Kentucky has been on the losing end of the Champions Classic, including the last four years. But the Wildcats bring two new weapons to Year 14 of the Champions Classic: experience and preparation. Gone are the days of being too young, too inexperienced, and too “we haven’t worked on that yet” in one of the biggest games on the schedule each year. Mark Pope has six fifth-year seniors, a traditional senior, and one junior on his roster. Kentucky will be prepared and not overly intimidated by the atmosphere.

Duke, on the other hand, has the old Kentucky model with several projected one-and-done freshmen. So, I predict we will see what we see at most Champions Classics, where the team of youth proves to be too young in November. Only this time, it is Kentucky that is most prepared.

How will it happen? Kerr Kriisa will feed Duke a dose of its own medicine by being the most annoying pest imaginable. He will flop, clap, and try every move in the book except trip people like Grayson Allen. (Never go full Grayson Allen.) Kentucky will have six players in double figures, led by Koby Brea and Jaxson Robinson who will have the hot hands against the Blue Devils. Go-Big-Blue chants fill State Farm Arena. Cats win.

Score: Kentucky 91, Duke 84

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Nick Roush

I woke up nervous. Why? It’s a defense mechanism. The Chicken Man can’t hurt me anymore, but I can’t put down my shield.

Best Case Scenario: Duke plays like many of the talented young Kentucky teams in the past. There is a scoring flurry early filled with highlights, but ultimately, Kentucky’s experience plays dividends down the stretch and Duke melts under pressure in a close game.

Worst Case Scenario: Amari Williams gets in foul trouble and Khaman Maluach eats inside. Even though I know threes are worth more than twos, Duke has the size advantage to take advantage of a cold Kentucky shooting night. Boy, I hope I’m wrong.

Score: Duke 91, Kentucky 85

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Zack Geoghegan

I won’t pretend that this isn’t more of a Duke Game than a Kentucky Game. Jon Scheyer’s war chest of future lottery picks calls back to the early years of the John Calipari era. All eyes will be on Cooper Flagg, who is as good as advertised. It’s not so much a matter of who will defend Flagg (my money is on Andrew Carr to start) for Kentucky, but how they defend him. Kon Knueppel might actually be Mark Pope’s biggest worry in this matchup.

Duke is a big team. Scheyer won’t play anyone under 6-foot-5, not even in the backcourt. But the guards aren’t a position I’m truly worried about. Lamont Butler and Otega Oweh will show out on defense before Kerr Kriisa and Koby Brea relieve them as the offensive flamethrowers. The ‘Cats won’t lose this game because of what happens in the backcourt. What UK needs is a huge outing from Jaxson Robinson from start to finish. This is a “prove it” game for the NBA Draft hopeful. Carr will need to make his presence felt on both sides of the ball, too.

This will be a classic youth vs. experience showdown. Kentucky’s experience won’t be intimidated by the bright lights or the Blue Blood opponent, but Duke’s youthful talent will be too much to overcome down the stretch.

Score: Duke 88, Kentucky 84

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Adam Luckett

This contest definitely has a feel of a game that Mark Pope and his coaching staff has had circled as soon as they got done building the roster. The massive neutral-site contest is a big moment for this new era of Kentucky basketball.

But it’s a tough matchup on paper.

The Blue Devils have a size advantage at every position, could have a more than notable advantage on the boards and in the paint. Meanwhile, the high-end talent of Jon Scheyer’s third roster is undeniable. This appears to be the most talented Duke team since the Zion Williamson year. Kentucky will win/lose this game behind the three-point line.

I expect to see an extremely high three-point distribution volume from the Cats as I’m not sure the easy looks in the paint will be available on Tuesday night. The early perimeter shooting returns have me nervous. Outside of Koby Brea, Kentucky’s other top perimeter players are shooting a combined 10-for-33 (30.3%) from three through two games. That is a small sample size, but Kentucky will need better results in this game.

Kentucky’s perimeter shooting will not be good enough to take away Duke’s interior and rebounding advantage in this game. Mark Pope will have his team ready but this is a make-or-miss sport.

The Cats drop a close one in Atlanta.

Score: Duke 77, Kentucky 71

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Jack Pilgrim

The importance of these high-profile tip-off events had been minimized — or the inability to win in them had been disguised as building toward March (or June, depending on who you’d ask). In games where you’d win or learn, the Wildcats did a whole bunch of learning, losing six of the last seven in the Champions Classic with no wins since 2019.

Mark Pope promised to prioritize every game and event as head coach the day he took the job, and now, he gets his first test. And it’s a unique spot for Kentucky to be in, switching roles with Duke for a change with the Wildcats being one of the most experienced teams in college basketball and the Blue Devils being among the youngest — albeit with more top-end talent.

That dynamic is finally going to work in Kentucky’s favor, brushing off the spotlight like it’s just another Tuesday in November. Jaxson Robinson and Andrew Carr — the latter coming in with plenty of ACC experience against Duke as a Wake Forest transfer — stepping up in a big way to lead the Wildcats to victory in Atlanta.

Score: Kentucky 83, Duke 79

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Kentucky vs. Duke: How to Watch, Listen

Get ready for a late night, BBN. The Cats vs. the Blue Devils is the second half of the Champions Classic doubleheader, tipping off 30 minutes after No. 1 Kansas vs. Michigan State (6:30 PM ET, ESPN). That means it’ll be about 9 p.m. or later when the game finally gets rolling.

No. 19 Kentucky vs. No. 6 Duke
9 p.m. ET | Tuesday, Nov. 12 | State Farm Arena (Atlanta, GA)

• TV: ESPN (Dan Schulman, Jay Bilas, Jess Sims)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 106 or 190
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

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