Kentucky vs. Duke National Media Predictions

Duke and Kentucky are No. 9 and No. 10 in the AP Poll, respectively. The Blue Devils are currently a three-point favorite in Vegas, with the total holding steady at 148.5 points. The Cats did not inspire much confidence in their two exhibition games, beating Miles College by only nine points, while Duke blew out Winston-Salem State 106-38 in its sole preseason outing.

How are the experts feeling about tonight’s game? Here’s a roundup of national media predictions.

ESPN Basketball Power Index: Kentucky

Sports Illustrated’s Betting Guide

MONEYLINE/SPREAD PICK: Duke -1

Duke was the better team last season and improved with the addition of two top freshmen. Kentucky got better through the transfer portal and freshmen signees, but Duke seems to have the better team overall and it’s hard to see Krzyzewski losing this game. He has bested Calipari in two of the three Kentucky-Duke matchups.

OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 148.5

Both teams’ offseason additions help put this game over the projected point total. Duke’s incoming freshmen can score and Kentucky’s offense will hum with Wheeler running the show.

Sagarin Ratings: Duke -1.93, Total 141.25

KenPom: Duke 75, Kentucky 74 (47% chance of winning)

CBS Sports CBB Writers

On Friday, Kentucky played a curiously close exhibition game against Miles College, a Division II school. The Wildcats won 80-71. It’s the only time Kentucky’s failed to win by fewer than 22 points in exhibition play since John Calipari got there. So as far as I’m concerned, this is all setting up beautifully for people to be duped into taking Duke without much hesitation. But I will go UK on the moneyline in this spot because it’s the most veteran-laden team Calipari’s ever had at UK, the shooting will undeniably be better than last season’s team, and I think PF Oscar Tshiebwe is going to have a lot of success neutralizing Duke’s frontcourt presence. With these teams likely have some jitters (after all, MSG is going to be an environment unlike anything any of these players have experienced in almost 20 months), defense will win out. On the whole, I trust Kentucky’s defense, and its shooting, a bit more than Duke’s. Prediction: Wildcats 71, Blue Devils 65 — Matt Norlander

Action Network: Under 148.5

This opening game is a massive stage for all the young players on each side.

Add in the influx of new parts for Kentucky and the inexperience of the Blue Devils, and there could be some extended scoring droughts, especially early.

I’m going to take the under. I’d say wait until right before tip, as the total should keep rising and we can get the best of the number.

Sam Vecenie: Duke -1.5

Given the information at hand, I think there are just more pathways to Duke winning than Kentucky right now, even with my questions on Duke’s perimeter talent. Kentucky seems to still be figuring out what its best lineups are going to be across the board. The early part of the season might be even more of a feel-out process for them than it is for other teams. However, there is real firepower here, and I wouldn’t feel amazing about betting against a team that has this much skill and collegiate experience, even if much of that experience isn’t necessarily in a Kentucky jersey. It’s a lean more than a true bet, but I’ll probably put a small amount on Duke even though I don’t like this quite as much as the first game.

The pick: Duke -1.5 (.75u)

Seth Davis: Duke

John Calipari’s new-look Wildcats gave their fans some unintended drama last Friday during their exhibition game against Division II Miles College. UK trailed by seven at halftime before rallying to an 80-71 win. Sahvir Wheeler, the 5-9 junior transfer from Georgia, has shown in the preseason that he could be as good defensively as he is with the ball, and Kentucky will need that kind of toughness from everyone on the roster if it’s going to hold down the Blue Devils. Kentucky’s top frontcourt transfer, 6-9 junior center Oscar Tshiebwe, had a history of getting into foul trouble when he was at West Virginia. That could be a problem against Duke’s dynamic frontcourt duo of 6-10 freshman Paolo Banchero and 7-0 sophomore Mark Williams. The pick: 20 on Duke

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello (via the Herald-Leader): Duke

Duke 71, Kentucky 68 — I think both teams are borderline top-10 teams entering the season, but I think Duke might be a little ahead of Kentucky in terms of health and role allocation. Paolo Banchero is ready to come out of the gates with a monster performance.

Jeff Goodman (via the Herald-Leader): Kentucky

Kentucky 74, Duke 71 — I just think the Cats’ perimeter will be the difference, especially point guard play. Sure, Paolo Banchero is the best player on either team, but this is also his first career college game. Kentucky should come out of the gates much better than usual because of their experience.

Your turn.