Kentucky vs. Florida: KSR Staff Predictions

The Wildcats are back in primetime facing a familiar foe. Kentucky vs. Florida tips off tonight at approximately 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN. Before Tom Hart drops Whopper Juice on us during the broadcast, see what the Kentucky Sports Radio soothsayers foresee will happen during tonight’s SEC showdown.

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Nick Roush

I’m not scared of Todd Golden’s Florida Gators. However, this one could get ugly and I mean that in the most polite way possible. The slow-starting Wildcats may or may not have Cason Wallace against a Florida defense that suffocates opponents. Florida ranks No. 8 nationally in defensive efficiency and No. 7 in two-point defense. The midrange buckets will not come easily for Jacob Toppin and Collin Castleton‘s length will be a problem for Oscar Tshiebwe.

How do you combat great interior defense? By shooting over the top. Antonio Reeves is on a bit of a heater, averaging over 17 points per game over the last eight. The Cats can’t let him cool down, and more importantly, they need CJ Fredrick to rediscover his form. He’s been an excellent shooter his entire life. He’s slumping right now, but water will find its level and he will deliver enough big buckets to propel Kentucky to a feel-good win at Rupp Arena.

Prediction: Kentucky 68, Florida 65

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Adam Luckett

When digging into this matchup on paper, things are very even between Kentucky and Florida. This is truly a strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness matchup.

Under new head coach Todd Golden, the Gators have been very stout on defense by running foes off the three-point line into the teeth of their defense. Florida gets great rim protection and that forces opponents to take tough twos. They’ll be up against a Kentucky offense that is playing at a top-25 level and can be hard to guard when the threes are falling. But do the Cats get many three-point opportunities on Saturday night?

On the other end, Kentucky has some real defensive issues, but Florida’s offensive issues might be worse. The Gators rank outside of the top 140 in adjusted offensive efficiency as this group struggles to shoot the ball and does not hunt for offensive rebounds. It’s all about slowing down five man Colin Castleton.

In an even matchup, the home crowd at Rupp Arena could be the difference. I think it helps that this is a prime-time tip. A rowdy Big Blue Nation crowd gets the Wildcats over the hump as John Calipari’s team gets a much-needed win at home in a grind-it-out affair.

Prediction: Kentucky 64, Florida 61

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Drew Franklin

We’re all friends here, right? We can be honest with each other in this space? If so, I’d like to express my concern about tonight’s contest in Rupp Arena. Kentucky and Florida are pretty comparable, each with 6-3 records for a fifth-place tie in the SEC standings, and they’re only a couple of spots away from each other in KenPom’s rankings. There’s star power inside as Colin Castleton will give Oscar Tshiebwe fits with his offensive skillset while Tshiebwe overpowers Castleton on the glass and when he has the ball. Foul trouble could be a difference-maker either way between those two.

I worry too about CJ Fredrick’s shooting slump and if he can snap out of it for the game we’ve all been waiting for, and if Antonio Reeves’ current hot streak put a target on his back against a good defense that eliminates shooters. And is Cason Wallace OK? John Calipari didn’t exude confidence in Wallace’s recovery during Wednesday’s call-in radio show, and Kentucky’s Friday press conferences have become pretty worthless for anyone seeking information about things like the status of the team’s only NBA lottery pick. I guess we’ll find out at tip-off.

With all those concerns now expressed, if Rupp Arena is anything close to what it was last Saturday for the Kansas game, the atmosphere may be too much for Florida to overcome. And I’m counting on it.

Prediction: Kentucky 66, Florida 65

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Jack Pilgrim

Florida is building some momentum as of late, specifically following the team’s statement victory over No. 2 Tennessee this week. Coming in with one of the most difficult schedules in college basketball, the Gators took some early losses, but they’re quickly finding their footing in the SEC (6-3) and present a very real challenge for the Wildcats. They’ve quickly established themselves as one of the best defensive teams in basketball, ranked No. 8 overall in efficiency, allowing just 64.5 points per game on 39.1% shooting and 30.4% from three on the year.

All eyes are on Tshiebwe vs. Castleton, with some bulletin board material coming leading up to the game. The Florida star told KSR at SEC Media Day he wasn’t playing at 100% when the reigning National Player of the Year dominated the Gators on back-to-back occasions a year ago.

“I’m looking forward to the matchup, I’m excited,” he said. “I’m healthy, back to 100%, which I wasn’t back then.” 

Tshiebwe’s response? “I don’t fear him. He’s coming to my hometown, he’s coming to my house. He’s going to have to fight, but I’m not just going to let him come do whatever he wants.”

That matchup is the story, but continued growth at the guard position for Kentucky will be the difference. If Wallace can suit up, I like the Wildcats’ chances. The same can be said about Reeves continuing to find ways to put the ball in the basket. A big game from either would likely lead to a solid win for the home team — and that’s what I’m expecting.

Prediction: Kentucky 74, Florida 66

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Tyler Thompson

Not gonna lie, tonight’s game makes me nervous. Florida’s three SEC losses (at Auburn, Texas A&M twice) have come by an average of 2.7 points. The Gators have a top-ten defense and even though Oscar Tshiebwe got the better of Colin Castleton twice last season, the Florida big man is playing great and Oscar’s defense has been one of Kentucky’s weaknesses this year. 

That said, this quote from Oscar about Castleton gave me a boost yesterday.

“The big man is good. He’s good. He can play but I have so much respect for him but I don’t fear him. I don’t fear him. He’s coming to my hometown, he’s coming to my house. He’s going to have to fight but I’m not just going to let him come do whatever he wants.”

John Calipari said he had a heart-to-heart with Oscar this week about his defense, so let’s hope that and the matchup with Castleton lights a fire under the big man to have a big night. The other big factor in this game is Cason Wallace’s availability. Kentucky was able to survive without him at Ole Miss. If Wallace can’t go again tonight, I worry Florida’s experienced backcourt and elite defense will make for an ugly game. 

But, positive vibes only. Hopefully, a rowdy Rupp crowd will propel the Cats to their sixth straight SEC victory, another step forward as we inch toward March. 

Prediction: Kentucky 68, Florida 65