KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Gonzaga

Kentucky took its first loss of the season Tuesday night at Clemson; No. 7 Gonzaga presents an even bigger challenge. The Bulldogs play a similar style as the Tigers but with much more talent. They’re also better offensively, averaging 90.4 points and ranking No. 2 in KenPom in adjusted efficiency. All while limiting teams to just 24.5% from three and grabbing an average of 41.4 rebounds per game.

Saturday’s game is technically at a neutral site, taking place in Seattle, four hours from Gonzaga in Spokane, but the Bulldogs will have the crowd advantage at Climate Pledge Arena. Will Gonzaga make it three in a row vs. the Cats in the Battle in Seattle or will Kentucky bounce back to avoid its second straight loss? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

Tyler Thompson

Kentucky is 22-82 (26.8%) from three in the last three games. At some point, the shots are going to start falling. I believe it will be Saturday night in Seattle.

Is Gonzaga a better version of the Clemson team that beat Kentucky on Tuesday? Yes, but I have to think that Mark Pope has spent every waking minute working on adjustments. I also believe this team will be eager to get the losing taste of mouths on a big stage.

The x-factor will be whether or not Lamont Butler plays. We saw how much this team needed Butler when he battled foul trouble and an ankle injury on Tuesday. He drives the offense better than anyone and is not afraid to step up and take a big shot like his three to pull Kentucky within two with 2.2 seconds left. If Butler goes, I feel much better about the Cats’ chances. If not, cross your fingers that Koby Brea and Jaxson Robinson go nuclear and Amari Williams, Andrew Carr, and Brandon Garrison hold their own against Gonzaga’s formidable frontcourt.

I’d like to hold off on my prediction until we know about Butler, but that’s not how this works. Fingers crossed for that ankle.

Score: Kentucky 86, Gonzaga 83

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Jack Pilgrim

I was devastated leaving Clemson, curious if the Tigers had just written the blueprint to beating this Kentucky team. Get physical and force them to create off the dribble rather than dipping into their bag of tricks away from the ball for comfortable catch-and-shoot looks while hitting the glass with some intensity. There are flaws to expose and Brad Brownell seemingly found them — with a tougher, more talented version of his group up next 2,400 miles away. Factor in Lamont Butler’s ankle and there are some concerns there going into the top-10 matchup. Then Mark Pope flipped my concern to optimism, talking about this team’s ability to ‘ring the bell’ when facing adversity, just as it did after getting destroyed on the boards in the first half before doing the destroying in the second half. “I actually have more confidence in this team after the game than I did before,” he said.

The Wildcats are a combined 26.8 percent from three and have not shot better than 27.6 percent in their three most recent matchups, never exceeding eight makes in a single game. That changes in Seattle, shots finally starting to fall after the recent slump with Butler giving enough on a broken wheel to pull off the win. Jaxson Robinson is team MVP with his first big-time performance in a big-time game while Andrew Carr also gets back on track after a rough night inside Littlejohn Coliseum.

Cats squeeze this one out to avoid a two-game losing streak.

Score: Kentucky 83, Gonzaga 79

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Nick Roush

Aside from Andrew Carr‘s performance, I kinda agree with Mark Pope. I left the Clemson game optimistic after the Cats responded on the glass and on defense in the second-half comeback effort. They won’t get shellshocked by Gonzaga’s physicality in the same way they were on Tuesday.

The more I think about it, the more I think second-half Kentucky shows up ready for the physicality just in time for the shots to start falling. This team was built to be a high-volume three-point shooting team. Over the last three games, they haven’t made double-digit threes or shot better than 30% from downtown. Not only do I think Kentucky will get back to its norm, but I also think they’re going nuclear. I can feel it in my bones. This is a big win thanks to 19 makes from behind the three-point line.

Score: Kentucky 91, Gonzaga 81

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Adam Luckett

Another big non-conference game has arrived for Mark Pope’s first Kentucky team. This time it is against a foe who plays a very similar style of basketball and has had UK’s number over the last two seasons.

We’ve got a Quad 1A battle in Seattle locked into the after-dark window on Saturday night. Both teams want to play with pace. Kentucky is much more reliant on the three-point shot. Gonzaga should score much more easily in the paint.

We could get a shootout. I worry about Kentucky’s paint defense in this matchup and a potentially hobbled Lamont Butler looms large. The Wildcats will need a big three-point shooting game to leave the Pacific Northwest with a victory. The Cats are on a cold shooting streak and that is worrisome.

The Bulldogs create a big advantage in paint points. That ultimately becomes the difference. Kentucky doesn’t make enough threes and can’t get over the hump after falling into another first-half hole against a top-25 team.

Score: Gonzaga 80, Kentucky 75

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Zack Geoghegan

For me, this game comes down to whether or not Kentucky rediscovers its outside shooting. Gonzaga is excellent at defending the long ball, ranking third nationally in opposing three-point percentage at just 24.5. I believe Mark Pope will find a way to make sure Koby Brea gets more looks compared to the Clemson game. The shots will finally fall in Seattle.

Mark Few’s team eats up points in the paint on offense. His two highest-scoring players are 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-10. They comfortably go eight deep and have scored under 80 points just once this season (which ended up being their lone loss). Ryan Nembhard averages over 10 assists per game and Nolan Hickman is shooting the ball better than he ever has. The Bulldogs have weapons at every position.

Being without Lamont Butler in this game would hurt. His absence would seriously damage UK’s chances. I do think we would see a much better game from Kerr Kriisa if that ends up being the case though. Kriisa has engineered very good teams over his long college career and has played in plenty of high-stakes matchups. More minutes his way in the event Butler can’t go doesn’t concern me as much as it might others.

I’ve gone back and forth since Wednesday morning on which way I’m leaning. Like my coworkers above me, I genuinely believe Pope when he says he has more confidence now than he did on Monday. Butler’s injury worries me, but Kentucky will find ways to overcome it.

Score: Kentucky 82, Gonzaga 80

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Kentucky vs. Gonzaga: How to Watch, Listen

No. 4 Kentucky (7-1) vs. No. 7 Gonzaga (7-1)
Sat., Dec. 7 | 10 p.m. ET | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA

• Television: ESPN2 (Jon Sciambi, Jimmy Dykes)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 106 or 190
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tipoff, or join the conversation on KSBoard.