Kentucky vs. Kansas: KSR Predictions

Tonight at 8 p.m. ET, Kentucky hosts No. 9 Kansas in the final Big 12/SEC Challenge. We’ve written a lot about the matchup between the winningest programs in college basketball this week and what a win would mean for the Cats, but now, it’s time to finally make our predictions. Pull up a seat at the table as we weigh in on what will happen tonight at Rupp Arena.

Tyler Thompson

Somewhere between the loss to South Carolina and the win over Tennessee, I vowed to start taking this season game-by-game. So far, so good. To use the phrase du jour, the Cats have quietly “stacked wins” since the upset in Knoxville, finding a groove with the Basketball Benny lineup and getting Sahvir Wheeler on board in his role as a backup. Does that mean they’re ready to take down a top-ten Kansas team? The performance at Tennessee showed they’re capable; what they’ve done in the three games after has me quietly confident they’ll actually do it.

The Jayhawks are struggling, dropping three straight games against ranked opponents. During that stretch, they shot only 26% (18-69) from three. You have to think that at some point, the shots will start going in. Bill Self has never lost four in a row at Kansas and the Jayhawks will be ready to redeem themselves and maybe get a little revenge for last year’s beatdown in The Phog. For Kentucky to win, they have to limit Kansas’ wings and capitalize on mismatches elsewhere. Junior Jalen Wilson and freshman Gradey Dick average a combined 35.7 points and 14.3 rebounds per game. Dick in particular seems like the kind of player that could have a day in Rupp and become BBN’s new enemy. If the Cats can slow one — or preferably both — of them down and feed Oscar Tshiebwe in the post, I feel good about their chances.

Rupp is at its best for big games like this and the Big Blue Nation is hungry for a marquee home win. Seeing it come to fruition would be exactly what everyone needs to get ready for March.

Score: Kentucky 72, Kansas 69

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Nick Roush

The key to Kentucky’s success over the last four games has been their play on defense. How will that hold up playing against a smaller lineup?

The Jayhawks do not have a traditional brick ****-house to battle with Oscar Tshiebwe inside. The reigning National Player of the Year should eat offensively. Defensively, can Jacob Toppin and Tshiebwe continue to play sound in open space? Even more so, will Gradey Dick remain ice cold? The 43% three-point shooter has only made 5-of-21 three-point shots (23.8%) over Kansas’ three-game losing streak. Prepare to add Dick to the long list of opponents who got hot at Rupp and ruined a perfectly great Saturday in downtown Lexington.

Score: Kansas 82, Kentucky 79

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Jack Pilgrim

Kansas has proven to be vulnerable on the defensive end of the floor as of late, soft inside with minimal pushback against physicality. Like Kentucky for much of the season — flipped during the team’s four-game winning streak — the Jayhawks struggle with fight and give up easy points because of it. Insert Oscar Tshiebwe, who doesn’t have a clear one-on-one matchup of concern on the opposing bench (guarding him, at least). It could be an offensive field day for the reigning national player of the year down low. He’ll have to lock in on the other end, though, as he’ll likely be guarding an impressively athletic forward in K.J. Adams Jr. Can’t afford foul trouble there.

That’s just part of the battle, though. Kansas has talent up top in Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick, but the Wildcats also have wings playing at a high level as of late. Antonio Reeves and CJ Fredrick will be leaned on to make shots, but defensively, Cason Wallace and Jacob Toppin will almost certainly be asked to check the star duo for the Jayhawks. A wash two through four is the goal (and it’s not unrealistic).

The position to watch will be point guard, as junior Dajuan Harris is Kansas’ primary ball handler and has been the weakest link in the lineup as of late. He’s shooting 41.7% from three, but doing so on just 1.8 attempts per game. Overall, he’s averaging 7.2 points, 6.5 assists, 2.0 steals and 2.1 turnovers, but he’s scored just five total points in the team’s last four matchups. High assists, high turnovers, (really) high minutes and usage. That’s the matchup to take advantage of, turning his mistakes into transition opportunities the other direction. I like Kentucky’s chances to win the battle of the one.

Kansas is flashy, but the toughness isn’t there, and neither is the depth. Continue moving the ball around and finding open looks while remaining engaged on defense and a five-game winning streak is very much on the table.

Score: Kentucky 78, Kansas 70

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Drew Franklin

Something’s gotta give as two streaks collide in Rupp Arena later this evening. Kentucky is currently riding a four-game win streak since reaching a low point in a home loss to South Carolina; meanwhile, Kansas is staring down Bill Self’s first-ever four-game losing streak having lost three consecutive games heading into tonight’s SEC/Big 12 Challenge. The Wildcats hope to maintain the streak they’re on; the Jayhawks intend to snap theirs.

As I see it, the teams will continue trending in opposite directions once the Wildcats defend home court to move to 5-0 since the loss to the Gamecocks. Oscar Tshiebwe is just too much for the Jayhawks to handle in the paint where Kansas lacks the muscle to fight back. He’ll have a huge day eating that triangle-and-2 alive.

On the perimeter, CJ Fredrick and Antonio Reeves will feed off the energy of the moment for two hot shooting nights from three. Across the way, the lights of Rupp Arena will be too bright for Gradey Dick and the Jayhawks’ outside shooting.

Up top with the ball, give me the size of Cason Wallace backed by the speed of Sahvir Wheeler against Dajuan Harris all day, every day. Wheeler is already 1-0 in the matchup with last year’s win on Harris’ floor. This year in the rematch, Rupp Arena will be at its best giving the Wildcats the best home advantage in college basketball.

Go.

Big.

Blue.

Go.

Big.

Blue.

Score: Kentucky 76, Kansas 69

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Zack Geoghegan

While I’ve only been “officially” covering Kentucky men’s basketball for about two years now, this matchup will be unlike I’ve ever witnessed in person during that short time. The two winningest programs in college basketball history going head-to-head in Rupp Arena on ESPN. 10-year-old Zack is losing his mind right now. Putting the actual basketball aside, this is the most excited I’ve ever been to sit inside Rupp. The atmosphere and pageantry of the event itself already have me on edge.

As for the basketball, I’m leaning toward picking the ‘Cats. Bill Self has never lost four straight while at Kansas, but this situation certainly doesn’t favor the Jayhawks. As my coworkers have mentioned above, Oscar Tshiebwe should feast. The lineup with three shooters on the floor is deadly. I’m not concerned with Kansas going into a small-ball lineup, if only because they aren’t physical enough to truly hurt Kentucky and aren’t among the nation’s elite in outside shooting. UK will dominate the glass and should own the paint. Jalen Wilson will likely find a way to get his stats regardless, but who else steps up for Kansas is the true question.

I’ve always been a fan of Gradey Dick since I first saw him as a high school senior and he’s lived up to the hype so far. He’s a difference-maker who can change a game with just a few plays. 6-foot-8 wings who can dribble and score are just tough to stop in college basketball, and Kentucky has run into troubles against that prototype over the years. This will be a big opportunity for Jacob Toppin to step up on both ends.

I’m expecting this game to live up to the buzz. Kentucky wins a close one.

Score: Kentucky 71, Kansas 69

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Adam Luckett

When digging into this matchup, there is only one huge on paper advantage and that belongs to the unranked home team that is laying points against the No. 9 ranked Kansas Jayhawks.

Kentucky ranks No. 1 nationally in offensive rebound percentage (38.8%) and Kansas ranks No. 198 in defensive rebound percentage (71%). That simply means that Kentucky should get more field goal attempts in this game. That will ultimately be the difference.

Neither team gets to the free throw line at a high rate, both offenses do a solid job of avoiding turnovers, and each team is capable of getting hot from three-point range. The small ball lineup could give Kentucky’s defense some issues, but the Wildcats should make up for it with extra shots on the offensive end.

Kentucky is favored for a reason as the opening line quickly moved. The Big Blue should be in great shape as long as KU doesn’t go nuts from three. Kentucky earns their second top-10 win of the season in front of a charged-up Rupp Arena crowd to move the Cats further away from the dreaded NCAA Tournament bubble.

Score: Kentucky 72, Kansas 63