Kentucky vs. Kansas: KSR Staff Predictions

The first big game of the 2023-24 Kentucky basketball season is here. No. 17 Kentucky will take on the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks Tuesday night in the Champions Classic. Tip-off is tentatively set for 9:30 p.m. EST, but the action probably won’t start at the United Center until it’s closer to 10 p.m. EST.

The last time Kentucky tipped off against a No. 1 team in the country at this event, Tyrese Maxey introduced himself to the Big Blue Nation with 26 points over Michigan State in a 69-62 win at Madison Square Garden. Will another freshman phenom lead the Cats to a victory in the Champions Classic? The KSR staff weighs in.

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Drew Franklin

With more injured seven-footers than games played, I think it is unfair to expect too much of the young Kentucky Wildcats against veteran-led, No. 1-ranked Kansas. Hunter Dickinson is at least five inches taller than everyone on Kentucky’s roster, and he is one of many ways the Jayhawks can score in a very well-rounded offense that is stacked with experience. Kansas starts three seniors and two juniors.

So, today, November 14, I think Kentucky is too outmatched to beat Kansas under the Champions Classic lights. It is not an impossible task, but outside of a spectacular scoring night from the Wildcats, I think Kansas wins with its experience and size.

Whatever happens, we’ll know a lot more about Kentucky and what to expect moving forward. I think UK puts up a fight but lacks the manpower to uncrown No. 1 this early in the season. I’ll take Kansas in this matchup now and Kentucky in the rematch in March.

Pick: Kansas 81, Kentucky 75

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Tyler Thompson

I like what I’ve seen from Kentucky thus far, but beating the No. 1 team in the country with a roster full of freshmen and without an available player over 6’9″ is too big of an ask three games in. The Cats’ makeshift frontcourt has survived two games against bad opponents (and six exhibitions before that). The Jayhawks, with 7’2″ center Hunter Dickinson in the middle, are an entirely different story. As much as I’m enjoying the small-ball Cats, I fear the Jayhawks’ size and experience will be too much tonight.

That said, very excited to see how the team, especially the freshmen, performs. Early “big” games like this are great for seeing who is ready for the spotlight and who needs a little more time. DJ Wagner and Justin Edwards were nervous in their first game at Rupp Arena; what will their mood be when the ball tips vs. the top-ranked team with the world watching? Will Antonio Reeves light it up in his hometown? If so, how many points can this Kentucky team put up against a veteran, No. 1 squad? Even if this turns out to be a loss, there could be plenty of positives to build on.

Pick: Kansas 82, Kentucky 76

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Jack Pilgrim

It’s time to figure out what the heck John Calipari has with this team — in a game that matters. The Wildcats have lived up to the hype through six exhibition matchups and two glorified scrimmages, pace of play and offensive versatility being the storylines. ‘Basketball player’ talk has gotten us through the offseason and extended preseason, able to hide frontcourt depth and rebounding concerns against non-threats. Now comes the real test. As Kentucky waits for its 21-plus feet of bigs to take the floor, it has to take on the most dominant center in college basketball on the sport’s biggest and brightest stage. Can the Wildcats contain all 7-2, 260 pounds of Hunter Dickinson? Can they speed him up and expose him for the plodding dinosaur he is in a game no longer living in the 1980s? That’s the hope.

But I look at the perimeter as the difference. Kentucky has to guard the three-point line to stand a chance. Dickinson may get his inside, but if the Jayhawks make shots from deep, it’s hard to envision the Wildcats keeping things competitive — today, at least.

Kansas is shooting 46.9% from three on the season. Sniffing that number again in Chicago will result in a long night for Kentucky. The recipe is to let Dickinson eat offensively, but work to expose him defensively while going all-in on guarding the three on the other end. I think the Wildcats do that for the majority of the game to keep things tight, but the Jayhawks hit the big shots late to hang on down the stretch.

It’s a feel-good loss for Kentucky as it prepares for the anticipated returns of Aaron Bradshaw, Ugonna Onyenso and Zvonimir Ivisic.

Pick: Kansas 80, Kentucky 77

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Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky has beaten Hunter Dickinson once already in 2022, but this Kansas team is nothing compared to that Michigan squad. He’s surrounded by legitimate Final Four-caliber talent and is showcasing the ability to extend his game beyond the three-point arc. But even if Dickinson isn’t splashing threes Tuesday night, he’s going to have a clear advantage down low. On the flip side, Kansas will have to find ways to defend Kentucky’s fast-paced, transition-fueled offense. The Wildcats will score plenty of points by playing an exciting brand of small ball. That’s not my worry.

It’s the other end of the floor where the concerns set in. Kansas is a veteran team going against one made up mostly of freshmen. Even if Kentucky has the upper hand talent-wise, the pressure of playing in just your third college basketball game in Chicago against the top-ranked team with scouts from all 30 NBA teams in the building is unlike any other. How the young Wildcats defend Kansas’ guards under that kind of limelight will tell the story of this one.

Finally, can Tre Mitchell do enough to limit Dickinson? How does Dickinson do stepping out to defend Mitchell on the perimeter? Will both get tagged with two fouls in the first eight minutes of action, thus throwing all these prediction guesses out the window? With college basketball referees, you never know for sure. Regardless, this game shouldn’t be any indicator of how good Kentucky can be once we hit the spring.

Pick: Kansas 79, Kentucky 72

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Nick Roush

The speed of the game underneath the spotlight is much faster than what Kentucky saw in two games last week at Rupp Arena. The buzz in the air at the Champions Classic will have both teams flying all over the court for what will likely be a chaotic first four minutes. I fear the game will be lost before the first media timeout.

It’s not to say that this Kentucky basketball team will not show resolve and fight back with a few impressive runs. However, the high energy in the atmosphere will lead the Cats to take bad shots early and commit a few uncharacteristic turnovers. They will find themselves in an 8-12 point hole and spend all night trying to dig out of it.

Antonio Reeves will knock down a couple of threes to spark some impressive Kentucky runs that get within one or two scores, but ultimately Kansas’ experience and interior presence will allow them to withstand the Wildcats’ best efforts in the second half and come away with a win.

Pick: Kansas 83, Kentucky 72

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Adam Luckett

The Champions Classic has arrived. One of the best early season events in college basketball is a rightful kickoff to the season. However, the prettiest basketball is not always played in this event. I suspect foul trouble could be an issue, there will be long stretches without baskets, we will see plenty of free throw attempts, turnover rates could be high, and the game will likely be decided in the final eight minutes.

Kentucky’s guards will keep them in the game all night, but Kansas will get easy buckets in the post in crunch time to separate from the Wildcats. Expect a competitive matchup that becomes a little bit more grind it out than expected. The Jayhawks simply have more answers at the moment.

Pick: Kansas 67, Kentucky 61