Kentucky vs. Kansas State: National Media Predictions

We’re almost there, friends. At 2:40 p.m., No. 6 seed Kentucky takes on No. 3 seed Kansas State for a spot in the Sweet 16. We weighed in with our takes earlier, but what is everyone else saying about the game?

KenPom favors the purple Wildcats by one, 74-73. Bart Torvik also has Kansas State winning by one, 72-71. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor leans towards Kentucky 61.7%. The national media is feeling the blue-and-white Wildcats too. Here’s a roundup.

Seth Davis: Kentucky

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 6 Kentucky (-1 1/2), 2:40 p.m., CBS. The fact that the lower-seeded team is favored should tell us something. Kentucky is playing better than its seed, and it showed a lot of heart, toughness and defensive efficiency during its 61-53 first-round win over Providence. That was the Friars’ lowest-scoring total of the season. John Calipari leans very heavily on his five starters, all of whom played 33 or more minutes. (None of UK’s four bench players scored.) Antonio Reeves is shooting with confidence (22 points, 5 of 9 from 3), and 6-9 senior forward Oscar Tshiebwe is playing like an All-American again. Tshiebwe’s 25 rebounds against the Friars were the most in the NCAA Tournament since 1977, and over his last five games he is averaging 16.4 points and 18.0 boards. I love this matchup for Kentucky because Kansas State is so heavily dependent on two players, 5-8 senior guard Markquis Nowell (17 points, 14 assists, five turnovers vs. Montana State) and 6-6 senior forward Keyontae Johnson (18 points, eight rebounds, three assists). The Wildcats have other good players as well, but those two need to have great games in order to counter Tshiebwe’s dominance on the glass. John Calipari will have his guys ready. The pick: Kentucky

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CBS Sports Staff

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CBS Sports’ Kyle Boone: Kentucky

Sunday, 2:40 p.m. | CBS, March Madness Live: Kentucky fans may recall Kansas State ending the Wildcats’ season in 2018 when UK was a 5 seed and K-State was a 9 seed in a wide-open region. So, I get there may be some nerves here for BBN. But the Wildcats — aside from two losses at the end of the season to Vanderbilt — are playing as well as they have all season after dumping Providence in a sweat-free Round 1 win. Laying the deuce here with UK. Pick: Kentucky -2

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The Sporting News’ Bill Bender: Kentucky (-1.5)

The Wildcats battle is here. Kentucky might be the lower seed, but they are a short favorite against a Kansas State that has an experienced point guard in Markquis Nowell. Kansas State won nine games without winning the rebounding battle, but this is not one of those games. Kentucky outrebounded a physical Providence team 46-27 in the first round. Kentucky also made its free throws and limited turnovers. If that happens again, then John Calipari will have Kentucky back in the Sweet 16. 

Pick: Kentucky wins 72-64 and COVERS the spread. 

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Bleacher Report: Kentucky

One-Sentence Synopsis: Strangely enough, Kansas State and Kentucky were also in the region when UMBC beat Virginia in 2018, and Kentucky sure would love to get revenge on Kansas State for that previous upset.

Kansas State Wins If: It finds a way to neutralize Oscar Tshiebwe. The Kansas State Wildcats have a trio of solid big men in Nae’Qwan Tomlin, Abayomi Iyiola and David N’Guessan, but defensive rebounding and defending the paint has been a struggle. And after Tshiebwe grabbed 25 rebounds in a win over Providence, Kansas State’s big men have their work cut out for them.

Kentucky Wins If: Cason Wallace is more disruptive than Markquis Nowell on defense. As a whole, Kentucky doesn’t force many turnovers. However, Wallace is an excellent perimeter defender, averaging two steals per game, and Kansas State definitely has turnover issues, allowing 7.5 steals per game. If Wallace has more steals and Nowell has more turnovers, Kentucky should win.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Kentucky -1. Two evenly matched teams. This will probably close as a pick’em. But Kentucky has been the better squad over the past two-plus months and should find a way to win.

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Jason McIntyre: Over point total

The interior will be problematic for Kansas State as Kentucky pounds teams into submission with size and rebounding. Kansas State has a big edge in the backcourt with Markquis Howell running the show, but their key player will be Nae’Qwan Tomlin, their 6-foot-10 center. Their interior depth behind him is thin.

PICK: Over 144 points scored by both teams combined

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