Kentucky vs. Louisville: KSR Predictions

Kickoff time is almost here. The Battle for the Governor’s Cup returns in contentious fashion Saturday afternoon at 3 pm EST on SEC Network. Seeking a fourth straight win over the Cards, the KSR crew predicts what the Wildcats will do when Kentucky hosts Louisville at Kroger Field.

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Nick Roush

This game is starting to feel like a toss-up, kind of like last year’s game felt like a toss-up. Remember what happened then? While it’s difficult to foresee another ass-whooping of that degree, you can’t convince me Louisville has already closed that incredibly wide gap.

The Cards will not be the first team to blitz Will Levis. This will be the first time they’ve faced a running back like Chris Rodriguez. The last time UofL faced a competent rushing attack, Clemson picked up 5.5 yards per carry to gain 248 yards on the ground.

No matter who is playing quarterback, they will not be able to create big plays against the Kentucky defense. In fact, it feel like this is the game where the Kentucky defense does some extra work to help its offense with a big scoring play.

Most importantly, Mark Stoops knows how to get his team ready for this rivalry game. Kentucky has beat itself all year by either playing flat or sloppy football. They might be sloppy in the season finale, but they will not be flat. That energy will fuel Kentucky to an important seventh win to end the season.

Prediction: Kentucky 28, Louisville 10

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Tyler Thompson

It speaks to both teams’ seasons that in September, most believed this was an automatic Kentucky victory. What a difference three months make. Kentucky entered Week 5 vs. Ole Miss as a 4-0 top-ten team. Now, the Cats are 6-5 facing a Louisville team that has won five of its last six. Kentucky must win today if it wants to save any sort of face from what could have been a very special season.

I don’t feel great about this game. As all the others will tell you, Louisville’s defense is good. The Cards are first in the nation in sacks, which does not bode well against a Kentucky offensive line we’ve seen struggle all season. That said, I’m choosing to believe in the Cats’ hatred of Louisville and the offense we saw in the fourth quarter vs. Georgia. After three straight blowouts and subsequent Ls Down, I can’t let myself imagine a world in which Louisville turns the tide at Kroger Field.

Prediction: Kentucky 17, Louisville 14

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Jack Pilgrim

Considering the sky-high expectations going in, Kentucky’s season has been a disaster, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. With a projected top-10 draft pick at quarterback, arguably the best running back in program history, and the best collection of pass-catching talent we’ve seen under Mark Stoops, the Wildcats have managed to roll out the most painfully inept offense in the SEC. It’s almost impressive how much the unit has underachieved under new offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello.

On the flip side, Louisville has overachieved, specifically to close out the season. The Cardinals are rolling, wreaking havoc defensively while producing enough explosives offensively to win games — five of the last six. A game that was penciled in as a guaranteed victory for the Wildcats to open the season is now seen as a coinflip (Kentucky is favored by a field goal thanks to home-field advantage at Kroger Field).

When push comes to shove, though, a mediocre team in the SEC is still better than a solid team in the ACC. Kentucky simply has too much talent on paper to not make the plays necessary to win a fourth consecutive time vs. Louisville. In what could be Will Levis’ final game as a Wildcat, I expect No. 7 to put on a show through the air and on the ground, leading UK to a seventh win to close out the regular season.

Prediction: Kentucky 27, Louisville 17

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Adam Luckett

Just about every way you slice it, this year’s edition of the Governor’s Cup is a 50/50 game. Both teams enter rivalry week with a top-20 defense and inefficient offenses that struggle to finish drives. We’ll be getting a slugfest at Kroger Field on Saturday.

During Louisville’s 5-1 run over the last six games, we’ve seen Scott Satterfield get conservative riding a strong defense and good kicking game to get to the winner’s circle. Against aggressive defensive fronts used by Mississippi State and Missouri, we’ve seen Kentucky get very run-heavy.

Both of those things play out as we get a low-scoring game at Kroger Field. However, the difference will be Kentucky’s ability to control the game on the ground.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. will push for 200 yards as Kentucky’s star tailback gets a heavy workload and Kentucky’s defense will be able to handle a very inefficient rushing attack at Louisville. The game stays close throughout and some of the issues — kicking game blunders and red zone inefficiency — remain but Kentucky’s defense gets a stop late this time to seal the win.

Prediction: Kentucky 21, Louisville 17

Drew Franklin

Scott Satterfield isn’t built for this. The last time he was in Kroger Field, the first time he was in Kroger Field, he cried to Mark Stoops about Kentucky’s players doing the L’s down after Kentucky scored 45 points on the Cardinals without a quarterback. Last year, Satterfield’s Louisville Cardinals got pushed all around their own field, some even hurdled, as Kentucky steamrolled UofL again for 52 points. Satterfield’s not cut out for the Governor’s Cup and Louisville’s teams have been manhandled in the rivalry under his watch.

So today, Kentucky will again be the bigger, meaner team in the fight with Mark Stoops leading the charge toward his fifth win in the last six Governor’s Cups. It won’t be flashy or anything out of Scangarello’s old 49ers playbook, but just the way Stoops likes it: run straight through them and play great defense.

Chris Rodriguez will shine on his Senior Day with well over a hundred yards and a score. We’ll see Will Levis use his legs for big gains too because he can’t help himself in the big rivalry game. I’m holding a ‘Will Levis Anytime TD Scorer’ ticket at +475 for that reason.

Defensively, Brad White’s defense will be at its best in stopping Louisville’s rushing attack, led by DeAndre Square in his Senior Day return to join the 300-tackle club. When the Cards fall behind and start airing it out, turnovers will clinch the win for the Wildcats. Jordan Wright one last time, perhaps?

Prediction: Kentucky 27, Louisville 13