Kentucky vs. Louisville: KSR Staff Predictions

Kentucky’s final game of the season is almost here, and it’s a doozy. Saturday at high noon, the Kentucky Wildcats (6-5) face the No. 9 Louisville Cardinals (10-1) at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville.

The Cats have won the last four games against the Cards, but the rivalry game has a different feel to it this year. In Jeff Brohm’s first season as head coach, Louisville has only lost one game and will face Florida State in the ACC Championship. Meanwhile, Kentucky has hit a skid, losing five of the last six games.

Who will take home the Governor’s Cup? Ready or not, it’s time for the KSR crew to weigh in.

Tyler Thompson

It’s been hard for this Kentucky Football fan to get up off the mat recently. The loss to South Carolina was one of the lows of the Mark Stoops era. Despite significant investments into the offense, this Kentucky team hasn’t been able to put it together all season, which is pretty depressing eleven games in. Despite rumors of another players-only meeting behind closed doors, I’m having a hard time envisioning the Cats rallying to upset the red-hot Cards at home — even if Louisville’s schedule is weaker than water.

There’s also the cyclical nature of this series. Kentucky has dominated it in recent years, not only winning but by big, boastful margins. It kinda feels like it’s Louisville’s turn, and I’m sure if given the opportunity, they’ll run up the score. Hope I’m wrong. A win over the Cards would be a much-needed boost heading into a critical offseason.

Score: Louisville 35, Kentucky 13

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Drew Franklin

I’ve felt better about a Governor’s Cup. I’ll tell you that. Last week’s loss at South Carolina was a real disappointment. I was certain Kentucky would put up some points on the Gamecocks. Yet, the Wildcats scored only 14 in total, losing to a four-loss South Carolina team with a flawed offense. 

That 14-point effort and my miscalculation of the game have lingering effects on the Governor’s Cup because I put money on Kentucky to beat Louisville before Kentucky’s trip to South Carolina. I was so convinced they’d beat up on the Gamecocks that I hammered the early Governor’s Cup spread and money line.

So, I have no choice but to believe in Kentucky. I was confident then and that money ain’t coming back, no undo button, so we will keep marching toward whatever they call Cardinal Stadium these days with optimism behind Kentucky. I am fully aware that Kentucky has not stepped up to its challenges this season and that Louisville has real confidence for the first time in several years. But, Louisville also beat up on a bad ACC (except for that game at Pitt) to get its ranking, and though Devin Leary has disappointed in Lexington, he is still the best QB in this game.

Throw in Deone Walker and the swagger that Mark Stoops’ teams usually bring to this rivalry game, and Kentucky can keep the winning streak alive IF that locker room is still together and interested in winning football games. Unfortunately, it’s unclear the mentality of the team behind closed doors. If they’re focused and don’t fall behind early or beat themselves up with penalties, drops, and turnovers, then the Cats will win this game. I’ll believe in them one more time even though it’s gotten me burned a lot this year.

Score: Kentucky 20, Louisville 17

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Nick Roush

There’s one matchup I like, and one I really don’t at all. When Louisville has the offense, I’m confident in Kentucky’s ability to contain Isaac Guerendo and Jawhar Jordan. Only two defenses in America are better at limiting explosive runs than Kentucky. Forced to use Jack Plummer to move the ball down the field, it won’t be pretty. Unfortunately, you can say the same about the Wildcats.

Louisville will apply pressure by blitzing the bejeezus out of Devin Leary and co. Even if the Kentucky quarterback is able to evade the pressure, his pass-catchers have to beat tight man coverage. That hasn’t exactly been a strength of the offense this year. At the end of the day we’ll once again be saying, “The defense did enough to win, but the offense just couldn’t score enough points.”

Score: Louisville 24, Kentucky 14

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Adam Luckett

One team thrives in close games and the other crumbles in close games. Handicapping this matchup is as simple as that for me.

I expect Kentucky to get off the mat and play with good effort as that has not been a problem all season, but I believe we will again see this team fall short when high-leverage situations arrive. Kentucky’s defense matches up well with Louisville’s offense and will take the traditional run game away, but the Kentucky offense will struggle against a defense that runs a lot of games upfront and will play physical bump-and-run coverage on the outside.

A slugfest will occur in Louisville, but the home team will be the one who makes the winning plays in the fourth quarter. A long offseason begins on Sunday in Lexington.

Score: Louisville 24, Kentucky 14

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Jack Pilgrim

My mother once told me if I didn’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.

Score: Louisville 30, Kentucky 17

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Zack Geoghegan

I have no idea how it’ll happen based on the last few weeks, but Kentucky will find a way to get up for this game and not let the season end on a sour note. Pride is on the line for the Wildcats. Finishing above .500 is on the line. If they can’t muster up some fight against the program’s bitter rival in the final regular season game, then Kentucky simply was never meant to have a good year.

And what better way to close things out than by spoiling Louisville’s special season? The Cardinals haven’t been this good since Teddy Bridgewater was running the show a decade ago. Kentucky has dominated the last four meetings between these two schools. The difference in talent and competition between the SEC and ACC has shown in those previous matchups. I believe that will be the case again in 2023.

Score: Kentucky 28, Louisville 24

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