KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Louisville

by:KSR•about 10 hours

Kentucky celebrates winning the Governor's Cup in 2021 - Dr. Michael Huang, Kentucky Sports Radio

It’s been a long Kentucky Football season, and even though the Cats won’t be going to a bowl game, they can still end the year with a win over their biggest rival. Louisville hasn’t beaten Kentucky since 2017. For the second year in a row, the Cardinals will be favored vs. the Cats. Can Kentucky play the spoiler once again?

Louisville is a 3.5-point favorite in Saturday’s game at Kroger Field. The Cardinals were ranked as high as No. 15 in the AP Poll in September, but have since tumbled out of the polls. Things were looking promising for Jeff Brohm‘s squad when they upset then-No. 11 Clemson on Nov. 2, but they followed it up with an embarrassing 38-35 loss to Stanford. After beating Pitt last Saturday, the Cards are now 7-4, 5-3 in the ACC.

Mark Stoops‘ teams always seem to come together for the Governor’s Cup. Freshman quarterback Cutter Boley will get his first start. Will the Cats treat this as their bowl game or is the juice completely gone? Ready or not, the KSR crew is weighing in with our predictions.

Tyler Thompson

It’s been a weird year. If not for the fact that Kentucky upset the No. 9 Cards last year as a double-digit underdog, I’d feel even worse about this game. With no bowl and a lot of uncertainty ahead, it’s very easy to see the Cats throwing the towel in and Louisville pouncing on that indifference en route to a big win, their first in the series since 2017.

But this is the Governor’s Cup and one of the defining traits of the Stoops era is how much this team loves beating Louisville. I’m not sure what lies ahead, but I’m picking the Cats to band together one more time behind Cutter Boley to remind the Cards of the pecking order, even in a very disappointing season. We’ve got plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the program right now, but I’ll go with optimism: a big day for Boley, Jamarion Wilcox, and Kentucky’s young playmakers, who will send the seniors out with the sixth straight win over the Cards. That’s way more fun than thinking about the alternative.

Score: Kentucky 20, Louisville 17

Nick Roush

It’s my job to have a good feel for where the Wildcats stand ahead of a football game. I have not been good at my job this fall or in this series over the last few years.

Things look good on paper for the Cards, and the Cats still find a way to play some of their best football of the season and leave the field hoisting the Governor’s Cup. It’s hard to explain, but I’m not questioning it. Something similar needs to happen for Kentucky to get its sixth straight win in the series.

Tyler Shough is the best Louisville QB since Lamar Jackson. He’s got a great home run target in Ja’Corey Brooks. Those two are going to create explosive plays. Prepare accordingly. The person I’m more worried about is in the backfield.

True freshman Isaac Brown leads the ACC and ranks in the Top 15 nationally in rushing plays of 30+ yards. Give him an inch and he’ll take a mile. The Kentucky run defense has been giving up a lot of inches since D’Eryk Jackson suffered a season-ending injury. Three different players set career-highs in rushing vs. Kentucky. That trend must end on Saturday.

It probably will not end and it probably will not matter. Kentucky isn’t the better football team, but they have the mental edge in this series and that is why they will win a silly football game.

Score: Kentucky 24, Louisville 21

Zack Geoghegan

It’s hard for me to pick against Kentucky in this series until Louisville proves it can actually win. This year might just be the Cardinals’ best shot at taking home the Governor’s Cup trophy since the win streak began in 2018. But we said that last year too when Louisville was ranked in the Top 10. Can Kentucky’s pass defense slow down Shough (who is in his SEVENTH college season) and company?

This rivalry matchup is effectively a bowl game opportunity for the ‘Cats. Stoops will mix in plenty of the young and talented pieces throughout with plans to build around them next season. But we’ll still likely see a good balance from the veterans needed to win a game as intense as this one usually ends up being. Stoops always finds a way to hype his boys up for the Cards, something you’ll continue to hear up until kickoff.

I’m all in on the Cutter Boley train as the face of the program’s future. I also believe the future is now — and it looks a lot like the last six years.

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Score: Kentucky 27, Louisville 20

Jack Pilgrim

I was comfortably picking Louisville to win this game until Cutter Boley was named starter this week. There just wasn’t much to play for with this regular group underperforming game after game en route to a missed bowl for the first time since 2015. Team and fan morale was at an all-time low under Mark Stoops, leading many to wonder about his future in Lexington. Then Boley entered the game and the offense hummed to the tune of 160 yards on 10-18 passing, a very real bright spot in a season of few. The way his teammates rallied around him to keep it somewhat competitive going into the fourth quarter at No. 3 Texas sparked real confidence for the future, which begins Saturday against the in-state rival.

Plus, it’s Louisville. For whatever reason, this coaching staff and these players get up for this game year in and year out, no matter the favorite or location. Stoops has had that program’s number, and until the Cardinals can prove they can retake the momentum in the series, we’ll just have to keep on picking the Cats, won’t we?

The kid goes for 300 yards and three touchdowns as #CardNation once again pretends that next year will be the year.

Score: Kentucky 31, Louisville 24

Drew Franklin

Kentucky’s season has been a massive failure. Winless at home against SEC opponents. More turnovers than touchdowns against league teams. The bowl streak is over. Many of the fans want a new head coach. I could go on and on about the problems around the Wildcats during this year’s letdown.

Still, Kentucky will beat Louisville on Saturday. The Wildcats will find a way. It could come from a heartfelt locker room speech by Eli Cox, a breakout performance by Cutter Boley, or maybe Barion Brown is a Governor’s Cup superhero. One way or another, Kentucky will come together for the final three hours of its season on Saturday to keep the rivalry trophy in Lexington.

My prediction is the Wildcats will win a sixth straight in the rivalry, and the Boley era officially begins with a Governor’s Cup MVP trophy. Go Cats.

Score: Kentucky 31, Louisville 27

Adam Luckett

Don’t ask me how, but Kentucky somehow scores three offensive touchdowns on Saturday afternoon. That should be enough to get this win across the finish line.

I’m a believer that the bad weather helps the home team because it will shrink the game and a lower-scoring affair gives the betting underdog an advantage. Kentucky has won the turnover battle four years in a row in this series and recorded at least one takeaway in every game this season. The Kentucky offense must take care of the football, but history tells us that UK will produce multiple takeaways. Stealing possessions will be vital against this explosive Louisville offense.

There will be shenanigans. There will be shoving matches. There will be unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. This game will not be boring. Cutter Boley hits a couple of big passes, Kentucky’s run game helps limit possessions, Louisville’s offense bogs down in the red zone once or twice, and an Alex Raynor late fourth quarter field gets Kentucky to 5-7.

Score: Kentucky 24, Louisville 23