KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Louisville

Saturday marks the start of a new era of the Kentucky vs. Louisville rivalry. For the first time ever, two first-year coaches are squaring off in the series. Will Mark Pope continue Kentucky’s history of dominance vs. the Cards or will Pat Kelsey’s team pull off the upset?

Kentucky enters the showdown with a 9-1 record and No. 5 ranking in the AP Poll. The Cats are off to their best start since the 2017-18 season, coming off back-to-back wins vs. Gonzaga and Colgate. The Cards broke a three-game losing streak with a three-point win vs. UTEP at home on Wednesday. They’re 6-4 this season, with losses to Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Duke. Louisville is down to eight scholarship players following injuries to Aboubacar “Kader” Traore, Koren Johnson, and Kasean Pryor.

The Cats are 39-17 vs. the Cards all time, 13-3 in the last 16 meetings. Does that total increase on Saturday? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in, but only after a message from our sponsor, Monticello Bank.

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Tyler Thompson

Whether or not Lamont Butler will play vs. Louisville remains to be seen, but it shouldn’t matter. The Cats can beat the Cards without him.

Louisville is short-handed and struggling. The Cards will need to play their best game of the season and have the Cats play one of their worst to have a chance at the upset. That ain’t gonna happen. I expect Kentucky to be dialed in for their first shot at the rivalry, especially after a mini wake-up call vs. Colgate. Kerr Kriisa will deliver the pregame speech, and in my mind, will spend hours watching Kentucky vs. Louisville highlights to prepare. You think Mark Pope’s first Kentucky team is going to lose to Louisville? No way.

Kentucky will break out of its shooting slump in a big way, hitting 15 threes en route to a double-digit romp.

Score: Kentucky 87, Louisville 71

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Nick Roush

When making pregame predictions, it’s wise to map out scenarios for wins and losses. There are multiple paths to a Kentucky win. The path to a Louisville win requires A LOT of things to go the Cards’ way.

First and foremost, Louisville’s gotta hit a bunch of threes and Kentucky’s gotta miss a bunch of threes. The loss to Duke tells us that UofL needs more than that for a win. Louisville likes to get to the free-throw line and draw a bunch of fouls. They need to muddy it up and get a friendly whistle at Rupp Arena. Good luck with that. They also need Lamont Butler on the sideline and Jaxson Robinson to struggle at the point guard position.

Pat Kelsey needs some good luck to go with his free sneakers and sweatsuits and it’s not going to happen. Kentucky is going to kick Louisville’s ass. My only concern about the game is being too obnoxious while celebrating in front of my wife and the other Louisville fans who are coming to my house to watch this beatdown.

Score: Kentucky 92, Louisville 72

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Adam Luckett

Louisville has played three top-30 KenPom teams and has lost each game by at least 11 points. Another double-digit loss is on the way.

Expect a game filled with a lot of possessions and a ton of three-point field goal attempts. Kentucky’s depth and better top-to-bottom roster give the Wildcats the big advantage. Louisville point guard Chucky Hepburn and wing Terrence Edwards Jr. both likely need big scoring games to give the road underdog a chance. Each talked this week about how important this game is. I’m not sure either will have a big enough game to pull the upset.

Louisville forces a lot of turnovers but Kentucky does not turn the ball over. The Wildcats have a better offense, defense, and should get some open looks from three. My bet is that the shot volume leads to 10+ makes from deep again.

Kentucky has a double-digit lead for most of the game.

Score: Kentucky 79, Louisville 65

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Zack Geoghegan

Louisville guard Chucky Hepburn is the real deal. He’s an impressive two-way guard who could give Kentucky’s backcourt fits if Butler isn’t ready to go. But I have faith in Jaxson Robinson (and possibly Otega Oweh) filling that role in the event Butler misses a third straight game. Robinson has done well as PG1. We saw the Wildcats begin to get back on track with its outside shooting against Colgate. Another (even slightly) better performance from deep would likely be all UK needs to pull out the victory.

What worries me is the Cardinals’ potential to go off from deep. Pat Kelsey has his team taking 31.8 three-pointers per game this season (top 10 in the country) but they convert on exactly 27 percent of those looks (bottom 10 in the country). But even then, Louisville is just 3-2 this season when hitting double-digit shots from long-range. The odds tell us they’ll struggle again on Saturday.

These two teams play in similar ways, but there is a clear talent discrepancy that gives Kentucky an advantage. Barring 15 made triples (current season-high is 12) from the Cards, Kentucky will cruise down the stretch.

Score: Kentucky 81, Louisville 71

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Jack Pilgrim

This game is a weird one. Kentucky is more talented and Louisville is absolutely wrecked by injuries, but they’re both shot-happy teams that can go nuclear at any given moment. The Wildcats are shooting 35.5 percent from three on the year, good for No. 113 nationally, while the Cardinals are hitting just 27.0 percent from deep at No. 344 overall. Volume is not an issue for either, though, with UK ranked No. 38 in attempts at 28.7 per game and UofL ranked No. 7 at 31.8 per game. Both teams are going to fire away and odds play in Kentucky’s favor to hit more of them, but there is always the off chance Louisville finally goes nuclear after sticking to the script as long as they have.

I’m expecting that day to come at some point, but not Saturday inside Rupp Arena. Lamont Butler’s health status is a major storyline in the head-to-head vs. Chucky Hepburn at point guard, but the Cats are simply deeper and better across the board. I believe in Pat Kelsey to turn the Louisville program around in short order, but he’s not going to pull off the unimaginable in year one as double-digit underdogs in Lexington.

Jaxson Robinson and Andrew Carr continue to step up as Kentucky rolls to a 16-point win to begin the new era of the rivalry.

Score: Kentucky 89, Louisville 73

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Drew Franklin

Kentucky needs Lamont Butler back for the Louisville game. Butler’s absence and the absence of his backup, Kerr Kriisa, have Kentucky playing with a severely limited roster, one that’s moved its starting wing, Jaxson Robinson, over to emergency point guard. Without Butler, Kentucky doesn’t have a direct response to Louisville’s Chucky Hepburn, but I am making my prediction under the assumption that Butler plays, even though Pope’s Friday comments weren’t all that inspiring. Still, I like the Wildcats to win Game 1 of the rivalry’s new era on Saturday.

Rupp Arena will also be a major factor in the game. I expect a rowdy atmosphere for Mark Pope’s first marquee home game and his first installment of the UK-UofL rivalry. Koby Brea’s 3-pointers–he will hit five of them–will be deafening, as will the cheers for Trent Noah hitting his first 3-pointer in the rivalry.

Kentucky will shoot, let’s say, 42 percent from 3 in a double-digit win as Kerr Kriisa throws his Ls down from the bench. Pope 1, Kelsey 0.

Score: Kentucky 88, Louisville 74

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Kentucky vs. Louisville: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 106 or 190
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tipoff, or join the conversation on KSBoard.

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