KSR's Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Predictions

The No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats are 6-1, but have lost five straight at Mississippi State. Will Mark Stoops get off the snide and secure his first win in Starkville? The series is split at 24 wins for each program. The KSR crew provides predictions ahead of tonight’s 7 pm ET kickoff on the SEC Network.

Tyler Thompson

I get that the cowbells are annoying. I get that Kentucky hasn’t won in Starkville since 2008. I get that Mississippi State is going to throw the ball 50-plus times. For all those reasons, I picked the Cats to lose this game in our preseason predictions; however, this Kentucky Football team continues to prove they are not the Cats of yore.

After the loss to No. 1 Georgia and a bye week to heal up, I think the Cats will be champing at the bit to get back on the field. Mississippi State has the SEC’s third-best run defense, but Chris Rodriguez will be eager to prove himself after being held to only seven yards at Georgia. With Josh Ali reportedly back, Kentucky’s passing attack will continue to improve. The Air Raid is a challenge for which Kentucky’s defense has had extra time to prepare.

This game will be ugly, but my gut tells me the Cats will grind it out, giving Mark Stoops his first road win vs. the Bulldogs.

Prediction: Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 24

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Nick Roush

Few places on Earth are worse than Starkville. My heart doesn’t want to pick the Cats, but my head is telling me that Kentucky has big enough guns to win the toss up game at Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs will be able to move the ball against UK’s defense by attacking Kentucky’s corners on the edge. The key is bowing up once the field shrinks. If the Wildcats force a few field goals and stops on fourth down( which they have all year), Liam Coen’s unit can provide enough offense to out-score State. Kentucky’s defense is do for some turnovers to bounce their way. Chris Rodriguez is due to bust some big runs for scores. With the right amount of explosiveness, Kentucky can win the race to 30.

Prediction: Kentucky 31, Mississippi State 27

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Adam Luckett

In many ways, Mississippi State is a terrible matchup for Kentucky football. The Wildcats will have their hands full at Davis Wade Stadium.

The Bulldogs are a pass-heavy, dink-and-dunk operation that cannot produce chunk plays. However, Kentucky hangs its hat on big-play prevention and is willing to give up gains in the intermediate passing game. That is exactly where MSU is most comfortable.

On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s 3-3-5 defense blitzes about 80 percent of the time and confuses opposing offenses due to both pre- and post-snap movement of their front and constant pressure brought by linebackers and safeties. The Bulldogs are a gap cancellation defense that shuts down rushing offenses and plays aggressive coverage. To score points, offenses must create explosive plays.

Kentucky has not been a great explosive play offense and Mark Stoops has a defensive strategy that seems to play right into Mississippi State’s hands. However, when you dig deeper into the data, the Wildcats have been better at finishing drives on both sides of the ball. Add this up with even special teams on both sides and it all adds up to a close game.

Kentucky’s talent, experience, and close game success give them an edge late over a young football team with a lot of sophomore starters. The Wildcats barely get out of Starkville alive on Halloween weekend.

Prediction: Kentucky 23, Mississippi State 21

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Drew Franklin

Before the season began, I predicted Kentucky would lose three games, this game being one of the three. Well, Big Blue Nation, I stand before you today a changed man, and I would like to take those words back if you will allow it.

Now that we’ve seen the impact of Wan’Dale Robinson, Will Levis, and Liam Coen on the offense, and that Kentucky’s defense has lived up to the reputation built by those before it, this Kentucky team is equipped for a balanced win in Starkville. Sure it’s been 13 years since the Cats won a game in Davis Wade Stadium, but I was in that sea of cowbells in 2008, so I know what I’m talking about… this is the year.

The return of Josh Ali will give Will Levis a second target in the passing game while drawing attention from Wan’Dale Robinson. The downfield threats will allow more room to run for Chris Rodriguez, although Mississippi State doesn’t allow much room to anyone. Still, Rodriguez will return to his SEC-best form behind the Big Blue Wall tonight and Kentucky will escape with a victory, 27-20. Spoiler alert, one of those Kentucky TDs will be a 50+ yard pass play.

Prediction: Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 20

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Zack Geoghegan

Once I heard Mark Stoops and his team decided to stay in a Starkville hotel instead of making the long drive from some random town 90 minutes out, I knew where I was leaning with my pick. Kentucky is out for blood with the understanding that this might be the toughest remaining game on the schedule. A win tonight and 11-1 is going to feel more likely than unlikely. Add in the bye week and the hopeful return of Josh Ali and I am all in on Kentucky breaking the 13-year losing streak to Mississippi State.

Admittedly, I had MSU winning this game in my preseason predictions, but I’m pretending those never happened. The ‘Cats take this one by two touchdowns.

Prediction: Kentucky 31, Mississippi State 17

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Jack Pilgrim

It won’t be pretty, but it will get done.

Kentucky used its bye week to get fresh, with the likes of Josh Ali and Dekel Crowdus both expected to return to the lineup. All of the minor bumps and bruises have healed and the Wildcats are physically prepared to head down to Starkville.

Mentally? They’re prepared in that regard, too. Mark Stoops has made it clear that Mississippi State is an opponent you can’t take lightly, especially with Mike Leach calling the shots on the offensive side of the ball. It’ll be a major test for the UK defense, one that has exceeded expectations this fall. As Zack pointed out, Stoops brought the team down to Starkville a day early to avoid long travel before kickoff. He wants them mentally fresh in that regard, as well.

It’s a weird matchup that will come down to the Jimmies and Joes, and Kentucky is superior in that regard. It’ll be close, but I expect the Wildcats to come out on top with the help of their added weapons and a coaching clinic put on by Liam Coen.

Prediction: Kentucky 28, Mississippi State 24