Kentucky vs. Mississippi State: Preview, Odds, How to Watch

Kentucky got off to a 2-0 start in SEC play, then fell down the stretch at Texas A&M to take a 97-92 overtime loss in College Station. Up next, it’s a Quad 2 home matchup vs. Mississippi State, one of the oldest and best defensive teams in the conference.

The Wildcats struggled to match the physicality of the Aggies last time around. Will they be able to respond back inside Rupp Arena this week?

Let’s preview the matchup.

How To Watch

No. 8 Kentucky (12-3) vs. Mississippi State (12-4)
7 p.m. ET | Wednesday, January 17 | Rupp Arena

• TV: ESPN2 (Tom Hart, Jimmy Dykes)
• Streaming: WatchESPN
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 119 or 191
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

Team Records

No. 6 Kentucky: 12-3 (KenPom: 19)

• 11/6: 86-46 W vs. New Mexico State
• 11/10: 81-61 W vs. Texas A&M-Commerce (Wildcat Challenge)
• 11/14: 89-84 L vs. No. 1 Kansas
• 11/17: 101-67 W vs. Stonehill (Wildcat Challenge)
• 11/20: 96-88 OT W vs. Saint Joseph’s (Wildcat Challenge)
• 11/24: 118-82 W vs. Marshall
• 11/28: 95-73 W vs. No. 8 Miami (FL)
• 12/2: 80-73 L vs. UNC-Wilmington
• 12/9: 81-66 W vs. Penn
• 12/16: 87-83 W vs. No. 9 North Carolina
• 12/21: 95-76 W at Louisville
• 12/29: 96-70 W vs. Illinois State
• 1/6: 87-85 W at Florida
• 1/9: 90-77 W vs. Missouri
• 1/13: 97-92 L (OT) at Texas A&M

Mississippi State: 12-4 (KenPom: 29)

• 11/8: 71-56 W vs. Arizona State
• 11/11: 87-63 W vs. UT Martin
• 11/14: 81-54 W vs. North Alabama
• 11/18: 76-64 W vs. Washington State
• 11/19: 66-57 W vs. Northwestern
• 11/24: 74-61 W vs. Nicholls
• 11/28: 67-59 L at Georgia Tech
• 12/3: 60-59 L vs. Southern
• 12/9: 106-76 W vs. Tulane
• 12/13: 85-81 W vs. Murray State
• 12/17: 72-54 W vs. North Texas
• 12/23: 70-60 W vs. Rutgers
• 12/31: 85-62 W vs. Bethune-Cookman
• 1/6: 68-62 L at South Carolina
• 1/10: 77-72 W vs. No. 5 Tennessee
• 1/13: 82-74 L vs. Alabama

Series History

Kentucky leads the all-time series 94-19 with wins in 17 of the last 18 matchups — all under John Calipari. Coach Cal, 17-1 against the Bulldogs dating back to the 2009-10 season, suffered its lone loss during the COVID year in 2020-21. That was a 74-73 defeat in the SEC Tournament.

The Wildcats won the matchup last season in Starkville 71-68, Oscar Tshiebwe going for a game-high 18 points and 11 rebounds, followed by Jacob Toppin with 16, Antonio Reeves with 14 and Chris Livingston with 13. All five of MSU’s starters are back from that matchup, led by Tolu Smith with 22 points and five rebounds.

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Odds via FanDuel

Spread: Kentucky -5.5
Total: 154.5

Kentucky Projected Starters

(Starting lineup based on the last game)

#21 – DJ Wagner
6-4 • 192 • GUARD • FRESHMAN
12.8 PPG, 3.5 APG, 2.1 RPG

#12 – Antonio Reeves
6-6 • 195 • GUARD • SENIOR
18.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG

#1 – Justin Edwards
6-8 • 203 • FORWARD • FRESHMAN
9.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG

#4 – Tre Mitchell
6-9 • 231 • FORWARD • GRADUATE STUDENT
12.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 3.4 APG

#2 – Aaron Bradshaw
7-1 • 226 • FORWARD • FRESHMAN
7.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 0.9 BPG

Head Coach: John Calipari (32nd season, 15th at UK) – 844-256 overall, 399-116 at UK

Mississippi State Projected Starters

(Starting lineup based on the last game)

#10 – Dashawn Davis
6-2 • 190 • GUARD • GRAD SENIOR
7.6 PPG, 3.4 APG, 2.0 RPG

#3 – Shakeel Moore
6-1 • 190 • GUARD • SENIOR
8.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.7 APG

#0 – D.J. Jeffries
6-7 • 215 • FORWARD • GRAD SENIOR
6.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG

#4 – Cameron Matthews 
6-7 • 230 • FORWARD • SENIOR
9.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG

#1 – Tolu Smith
6-11 • 245 • FORWARD • GRAD SENIOR
16.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG

Head Coach: Chris Jans (2nd season at Mississippi State, 8th overall): 33-17 at MSU, 176-61 overall

Statistical Comparison

(via Kentucky’s game notes)

Fun stats from UK’s game notes:

• Kentucky sits 18th in the latest NET rankings. The SEC has four teams in the top 25, seven in the top 50 and 11 in the top 100.
• The Wildcats rank in the top 10 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (3rd), fastbreak points (7th), scoring (3rd) and 3-point percentage (8th).
• Calipari is one win shy of winning No. 400 at UK’s coach. He is already the second-winningest coach in program history.
• Reed Sheppard ranks first in the country in true shooting percentage, second in effective field-goal percentage and third in 3-point percentage.

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Pregame Storylines

JOHN CALIPARI GOES FOR WIN NO. 400

Coach Cal has racked up 844 on-court wins across 32 seasons of college basketball, 399 across 15 at Kentucky — this one for big No. 400 leading the Wildcats. He’s won 17 against the Bulldogs dating back to 2010 including two straight and 17 of his last 18 in the head-to-head. Winning his 18th against Mississippi State would give him 845 overall, inching him closer toward Adolph Rupp’s total mark of 876 wins.

A DEFENSIVE JUGGERNAUT

“Ever had a root canal without novocaine? That’s what it’s like playing Mississippi State.” Those are CBS Sports insider Jon Rothstein’s words and everyone’s thoughts taking on the Bulldogs. Ranked No. 9 in defensive efficiency, No. 12 in three-point defense, No. 16 in effective field goal percentage defense, No. 27 in steal percentage, No. 28 in field-goal percentage defense and No. 37 in scoring defense, Chris Jans prides himself on making life miserable for the opposition on that end of the floor. Teams have reached the 70-point mark vs. MSU just 11 times in 50 games over the last two seasons with Tennessee and Alabama being the only schools to do it on multiple occasions.

Kentucky, who scored 71 in the lone matchup last season, averages 90.8 points per contest on the year, good for No. 3 in college basketball. It’ll be an offensive vs. defensive battle inside Rupp Arena.

OLD VS. YOUNG

Mississippi State’s starting lineup boasts 23 years of collegiate experience, highlighted by three graduate students. The Bulldogs rank No. 51 overall in minute continuity and No. 58 in DI experience, just four underclassmen in the entire rotation compared to eight upperclassmen. Kentucky, on the other hand, ranks just No. 160 overall in DI experience and No. 322 in minute continuity with two upperclassmen compared to eight underclassmen in the core rotation.

MSU has some grown-man strength at its disposal, too, with six players on the roster listed at 230 pounds or heavier. It’s a group of tough, hard-nosed veterans coming to Lexington this week.

WELCOME BACK TO LEXINGTON, DJ JEFFRIES

Once upon a time, the four-star wing out of Olive Branch, MS committed to Kentucky out of the 2019 recruiting class. His pledge came on March 12, 2018 before backing away just four months later that July to become Coach Cal’s first-ever decommitment. Jeffries later signed with Penny Hardaway at Memphis, joining AAU teammate James Wiseman with the Tigers. After two years with the program, he entered the transfer portal and landed at Mississippi State, now in his third season with the Bulldogs.

DON’T FORGET ABOUT JOSH HUBBARD

He’s not officially listed as a starter, but the 5-10, 185-pound freshman guard is Mississippi State’s leading scorer at 15.1 points per game. He’s shooting just 41.8% from the field, but is converting on 38.8% of his three-point attempts and 82.8% at the line. With four 20-point games and just two single-digit games with 11 outings of double-digit shot attempts, the Madison, MS native is going to be firing away inside Rupp Area.

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Rapid Reaction on the KSR YouTube Channel

Miss the game? KSR’s got you covered with a Rapid Reaction live from Rupp Arena on the KSR YouTube Channel. We’ll also have wall-to-wall postgame coverage on the website, including highlights, comments from John Calipari and the players, stats, and takeaways.

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