KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Two weeks ago, Kentucky went to Tennessee and pulled off one of the biggest wins of the season. Tonight, the Cats will look to sweep the Volunteers for only the second time since Rick Barnes took over in Knoxville in 2015, but they’ll have to do it without Jaxson Robinson, who will miss the game with a wrist injury he suffered in practice on Friday.

With a snowstorm hitting the Bluegrass, will the Cats stay hot and get another massive win over the Vols, or will the series split once again? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

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Nick Roush

I had a good feeling about the Cats’ chances in Knoxville. This one is harder to feel confident about because sweeps in this series are so rare.

One thing is certain: Rick Barnes will not allow his team to settle for three-point shots. They proved against Missouri that they only needed to attempt 15 to knock down 10. Last Tuesday’s shooting performance is more of the exception than the norm.

Lately, the opposite has been true for the Cats. Kentucky has scored 85+ points only once since January 11. Their last efficient offensive explosion was in Knoxville. Although this team is due, I have a hard time believing it will happen again against the Vols. Boy, would I love to be wrong.

Score: Tennessee 77, Kentucky 74

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Adam Luckett

Styles make fights and basketball is often a game that is matchup-driven. I’m probably in the minority in that I believe that Kentucky is a difficult matchup for Tennessee. One team scores with ease and forces their opponent to guard in space. The other struggles to score and wants to turn basketball games into hockey games.

I don’t think we will see Tennessee get 40-plus three-point attempts up again, but Kentucky will still pack the paint, and those threes will just turn into mid-range attempts. The Cats will need to know where Chaz Lanier is at all times, but scoring will be an issue for the Vols if Zakai Zeigler has another rocky shooting performance. The return of Lamont Butler should help prevent Zeigler from getting a ton of open looks.

Kentucky was short-handed and beat the Vols in Knoxville. Now Mark Pope’s team has all hands on deck and plays a brand of basketball that is a challenge for Tennessee. Missouri also went toe-to-toe with Tennessee on the road playing pace-and-space on offense. Kentucky won’t let this be a rock fight that is played inside the arc.

The Cats get around 10 threes again and pull out the brooms thanks to their ability to get buckets easier than Tennessee.

Score: Kentucky 78, Tennessee 71

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Tyler Thompson

Kentucky’s win in Knoxville two weeks ago has only gotten more surprising since. Thankfully, Lamont Butler is back in the lineup, which helped the Cats show some life defensively vs. South Carolina. Having him on the floor tonight is big because I highly doubt Zakai Zeigler (5-18 FG, 1-11 3PT vs. Kentucky) will be ice-cold from the floor again. In fact, Zeigler’s been on fire since the loss to the Cats, going 7-8 from beyond the arc in wins over Missouri and Oklahoma. As Adam said, Kentucky will need Butler’s defense on him.

Kentucky dared Tennessee to a shootout in Knoxville, a gamble that only worked because the Vols couldn’t buy a bucket. I don’t think the Cats can afford to play that trick again. Hopefully, with Butler back in the lineup, they won’t have to, but with Jaxson Robinson out, points have to come from somewhere. Robinson hit four threes in Knoxville; Koby Brea and/or Ansley Almonor need to fill the void from deep. Maybe Andrew Carr, who played only 89 seconds vs. Tennessee, can have an impact now that his back is healthier.

I liked Kentucky’s chances before the news about Robinson dropped last night; the Cats have beaten Tennessee once without one of their stars (two if you consider Carr’s limited minutes). They can certainly do it again, but the shots better be falling and the Rupp Arena crowd better be loud. I’ll go with my head on this one and hope to be proven wrong.

Score: Tennessee 74, Kentucky 71

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Drew Franklin

Kentucky swept Tennessee in the regular-season series only once since Rick Barnes took over command of Vols Basketball in 2015. Tonight, the Wildcats will make that twice, even without Jaxson Robinson on the wing.

Last month’s trip to Knoxville showed that Mark Pope’s brand of basketball is an unwelcomed change for Barnes’ team, one that isn’t designed to take a lot of 3s or get into a shootout. It’s hard to imagine Tennessee will shoot as poorly as it did in the first meeting (11 for 45). Still, Kentucky will force the Vols into a lot of jumpers while, hopefully, making plenty on the other end of Cawood’s Court.

Lamont Butler’s return should keep Zakai Zeigler in check (although Zeigler hasn’t played well in this game in the past). If Koby Brea can pick up some of Robinson’s scoring, Kentucky will beat the fifth-ranked team in the country again.

Score: Kentucky 79, Tennessee 74

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Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky was able to beat Tennessee last time on the road without Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr. Mark Pope will add those two into the lineup in exchange for Jaxson Robinson. It’s not an ideal trade, but one that shouldn’t completely ruin the Wildcats’ chances at the season sweep. This is still a good matchup for Kentucky.

I have a hard time seeing Tennessee squeeze off 45 three-pointers again. I also don’t see the ‘Cats giving up another 18 offensive rebounds like in the first meeting (UK has allowed just 13 combined in the last three games). I’ll add that the Volunteers shot 12 of those three-pointers (making just one) and grabbed seven of those offensive rebounds in the final 3:21 of the contest. Kentucky got a tad lucky down the stretch in Knoxville. Offensive rebounding has been at the top of the scouting report this week.

Tennessee has been playing its best basketball since losing to UK. Their defense is still tops in the entire country. Robinson’s size and scoring will be missed. But having Butler back should only help Kentucky push the pace, the opposite of what Rick Barnes wants his team to do. Carr needs to have a big game on the boards. I believe both will happen, but Tennessee wins it right before the buzzer.

Score: Tennessee 71, Kentucky 70

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Jack Pilgrim

Kentucky got its ‘heart and soul’ back on the defensive end of the floor with Lamont Butler returning from injury while Andrew Carr is certain to play more than 89 seconds this time around against the Volunteers. Two massive pieces in for the Wildcats, one massive piece out in Jaxson Robinson, who will sit with a right wrist injury. He helped set the tone early in Knoxville before finishing with 17 points, a scoring punch that will be desperately missed against the best defense in the country. His length was disruptive on the other end, as well.

An underrated factor? The weather, several inches of snow hitting Lexington and potentially keeping some fans away from Rupp Arena. Hopefully the diehards power through and give the Wildcats the home environment this matchup deserves, but it’s something lingering in the back of my mind as a likely difference-maker. Don’t forget: the road team has won eight of the last 11 games in this series.

A rock fight favors Tennessee and Robinson’s absence pushes this one toward that territory. Maybe Koby Brea, Ansley Almonor and Trent Noah combine for eight made 3-pointers again like they did in Thompson-Boling Arena, maybe the Louisville version of Lamont Butler is unleashed once again, but I’ll be expecting the worst and hoping for the best in this one. Rick Barnes had to have been embarrassed by his game plan in the first matchup and will be looking for revenge. I think he gets it — albeit in razor-thin fashion.

Score: Tennessee 78, Kentucky 76

Kentucky vs. Tennessee: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas, Molly McGrath)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 81
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.