Kentucky vs. Tennessee, Round 2: Reasons for Optimism, Concern

On the roller coaster ride that is this Kentucky Basketball season, the loss to Tennessee on Feb. 3 was a low. The No. 5 Vols easily handled the Cats despite a relatively quiet night from Dalton Knecht, the favorite for SEC Player of the Year. The loss was Kentucky’s second straight in Rupp Arena and raised some significant red flags, defense chief among them.

Not even 35 points from Rob Dillingham could save the Cats from themselves, spurts of offense overshadowed by turnstile defense. Zakai Zeigler and Josaih-Jordan James scored 26 points each to gash the Cats, who allowed the fifth most points ever in a home game and 23 more than Tennessee’s average.

Just over a month later, defense is still the issue for Kentucky, but in every other area, the vibes are good. The Cats are trending up, finally healthy, and riding a four-game winning streak in which they’ve averaged 103 points per game; however, the Vols are rolling too. Tennessee has won its last seven, clinching the SEC regular season title vs. South Carolina. They’re now projected to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which would be a first in program history.

The Vols opened as a 9.5-point favorite on FanDuel and have a 79% chance of victory per KenPom. Can the Cats pull off the upset and the biggest win of the year? Let’s look at some reasons for optimism, and some reasons for concern.

Con (and Pro?): Dalton Knecht only scored 16 points in the first meeting

Coming into the first meeting, all of the talk centered around Dalton Knecht, the transfer from Northern Colorado who is averaging 20.7 points per game, 24.6 in SEC play. That latter mark is second in the country behind only Purdue’s Zach Edey (25.4 ppg in the Big Ten). Knecht has scored 30 or more points in six games this season, most recently putting up 39 in a win over Auburn.

For all the hand-wringing, Knecht only had 16 points in Rupp Arena on 5-14 shooting, 1-5 from three. On one hand, the fact that Kentucky (specifically, Justin Edwards and Adou Thiero) slowed him down proves they can do it; on the other, that increased attention opened up the lane for the rest of the Vols, chiefly Zakai Zeigler. Tomorrow is Knecht’s final game in Thompson-Boling Arena Food City Center; can Kentucky contain him or will he go nuclear?

Pro: Neither DJ Wagner nor Zvonimir Ivisic played

Kentucky played its first complete game at full strength a week ago vs. Arkansas. Neither DJ Wagner (ankle) nor Zvonimir Ivisic (illness) played vs. Tennessee. Wagner returned to action a week later and is just now finding his groove again, scoring in double figures in the last three games. Ivisic has become an integral part of Kentucky’s offense — the center of the Cats’ “Nuclear Five” lineup — averaging 19.5 minutes per game during the four-game winning streak.

Both Wagner and Ivisic make Kentucky a different team. Having them back on the floor tomorrow is huge, especially if Wagner can slow down Zeigler.

Pro: Tennessee could be due for a letdown

As mentioned, Tennessee clinched the outright SEC regular-season title Tuesday vs. South Carolina. The Vols celebrated as they left the court in Columbia, with Dalton Knecht pointing at his ring finger, prompting mockery online.

Winning a regular-season SEC title gets the ring celebration? Dalton Knecht is incredible but gotta have bigger Tournament goals. pic.twitter.com/KHnkY7OPBn

— Andrew Perloff (@andrewperloff) March 7, 2024

The win over South Carolina was Rick Barnes’ 100th in SEC play. If the Vols beat the Cats tomorrow, it will be his 200th as Tennessee’s head coach. With CBS in town and dreams of grandeur dancing in their heads, are the Vols due for a letdown?

Con: Tennessee needs the win for a No. 1 seed

Not so fast! One very big reason Tennessee should be dialed in tomorrow is it needs the win to lock down a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols are currently projected to get the final No. 1 seed over Arizona; another Quad 1 win would strengthen their case. An experienced group, Tennessee shouldn’t overlook this one.

Pro: Justin Edwards’ breakthrough continues

Had a few things gone differently in the summer of 2022, Justin Edwards might wearing Tennessee orange. The Vols were the favorite to land the former five-star recruit before he picked Kentucky instead. Edwards’ freshman season got off to a rocky start, but he started to turn it around against Tennessee. He had 7 points (3-8 FG) and 4 rebounds vs. the Vols, limited to 18 minutes due to foul trouble. Those may not seem like flashy numbers, but he played with confidence, teaming up with Adou Thiero to hold Dalton Knecht to just 16 points.

Since then, Edwards has steadily improved, scoring in double figures five times over the last nine games, including a 28-point breakthrough performance vs. Alabama. As Nick Roush wrote earlier, Edwards could be the key to tomorrow’s game. Kentucky is 11-1 when he scores in double figures.

Pro: Kentucky’s frontcourt can’t play much worse than the first meeting

Kentucky’s bigs were woefully bad vs. Tennessee. Tre Mitchell, Ugonna Onyenso, and Aaron Bradshaw combined for just four points and 12 rebounds, with Ivisic out due to an illness. Tennessee outrebounded Kentucky 44-38 (18-14 on the offensive glass) and outscored the Cats 42-30 in the paint. I don’t want to manifest it, but it’d be hard for Kentucky’s frontcourt to play worse than it did vs. the Vols, especially now that Ivisic is part of the rotation.

Con: Tre Mitchell still isn’t 100%

After missing four games due to a shoulder injury, Tre Mitchell returned to action last weekend vs. Arkansas. It’s clear he’s still knocking off the rust. Mitchell totaled just four points and four rebounds in the last two games. Having him at 100% would certainly help tomorrow, although as mentioned, he didn’t have much of an impact the first go around.

Pro: Kentucky has pulled off upsets on the road

Tennessee is currently an 8.5-point favorite. The last time Kentucky went on the road as this big of an underdog, the Cats pulled off their biggest win yet, beating Auburn 70-59. They also won as the underdog at Mississippi State. Kentucky is 6-3 against the spread (and straight up) on the road this season. It was almost an entirely different squad, but last year’s team won in Knoxville as a big underdog too. This team seems to be at its best when it has nothing to lose and everything to gain.