Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt: KSR Staff Predictions

After three lackluster non-conference wins, the training wheels are coming off for the Kentucky Football team. Saturday, Kentucky opens SEC play vs. the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville at Noon ET, 11 a.m. local time. The ‘Dores are 2-2 this season, with wins over Hawaii and Alabama A&M at home and losses on the road at Wake Forest and UNLV.

This game is chock-full of storylines. It will be a homecoming of sorts for Nashville-area natives Barion Brown, the Wade Twins, Shamar Porter, and Tre’vonn Rybka, and the first time Ray Davis will face his former school. Last year, Davis played a huge role in Vanderbilt’s 24-21 win over Kentucky at Kroger Field. Now, he’ll be helping the Cats avenge the most disappointing loss from last season. And, oh yeah, Vanderbilt’s stadium is a construction site amid renovations, with a scoreboard hanging from cranes and a tent for a visitor’s locker room.

How is the KSR crew feeling about Kentucky’s SEC opener? It’s time for the panel to weigh in.

Tyler Thompson

I am excited to make the five-mile trek to Vanderbilt on Saturday, not only because it’s my first time seeing this Kentucky Football team in person, but also because it feels like this is the first time we’ll all be seeing them. The first three games didn’t tell us much, other than the offense’s potential has been limited by execution errors and penalties. Cleaning those mistakes up has been the story of the season thus far. I’m eager to see if that happens vs. legit competition — even if Vanderbilt is the weakest team left on Kentucky’s schedule.

The Commodores’ strength is their passing game. Quarterback AJ Swann has 1,101 yards and 11 touchdowns through four games, and a star receiver in Will Sheppard, who caught six of those scores. The Cats need to get to the quarterback and clamp down in the secondary. On offense, limit the penalties and drops. I’d love to see Dane Key get back on track after a rough start to the season. Scores from Ray Davis and Barion Brown would be especially sweet given the setting.

I’d like to say this is the game Kentucky puts it all together and rolls to a rout, but the first three games have me gunshy. It’ll be a W, but a potentially stressful one.

Score: Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 17

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Drew Franklin

Undistracted by the cranes in the Nashville skyline, kicker Alex Raynor will be Kentucky’s MVP with four made field goals in the Wildcats’ victory at Vanderbilt. Raynor will be needed when the offense struggles to finish drives against a Vandy defense ranked eighth nationally at red zone touchdown percentage.

When Vandy has the ball, AJ Swann will hit some shots over Kentucky’s secondary, but the Commodores will also fail to turn drives into seven points. The run game will get nothing.

Kentucky wins a road game with more glaring mistakes, leading to more concerns throughout the fan base and yet another week of Mark Stoops trying to clean it up. But first, the Big Blue Nation takes over Broadway after the game Saturday night to celebrate a 4-0 record with Florida coming to the Bluegrass next.

Score: Kentucky 26, Vanderbilt 13

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Adam Luckett

Kentucky gets a rare September road trip to Vanderbilt in Week 4. The Wildcats enter this matchup with numerous advantages.

Vanderbilt is a pass-heavy offense that lives and dies with vertical completions. Kentucky is a big-play prevention defense whose No. 1 priority is to take away the big play. Vanderbilt has a bad defense that can’t stop the run or pass. Kentucky has offensive balance averaging seven yards per rush on tailback carries and nine yards per attempt with Devin Leary behind center. The road team has the on-paper advantages.

Clark Lea’s program is reeling after the road loss to UNLV. Vanderbilt cannot run the football, has had issues stopping the run, and still has to run through the SEC gauntlet. Add in that this is a revenge spot, and there are numerous reasons to like the Cats.

Vandy is in a circle-the-wagons moment and hits Kentucky with a punch early, but the road team settles in and slowly pulls away from the Commodores. Kentucky gets to 1-0 in SEC play to set the table for a huge game against Florida at home next week.

Score: Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 14

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Jack Pilgrim

It all comes together for the Wildcats in Nashville. Kentucky is the better team on both sides of the football and it has the revenge factor at play. This team is pissed off about an underwhelming display in 2022 and it has taken a minute to knock the rust off despite the 3-0 start this season.

The light flips on for Kentucky to open SEC play, starting with the offense finding balance across four quarters. No more slow starts or long stretches without scores. Liam Coen’s unit may not get 60-plus plays off, but the efficiency is going to be there and it’s going to result in points — and no more fumbles. Barion Brown and Dane Key wake up and find the end zone, Jordan Dingle adding a third through the air for Devin Leary. Then Ray Davis punches one in on the ground back in Nashville, as does Demie Sumo-Karngbaye. And Alex Raynor adds a kick for good measure.

Vanderbilt has playmakers on offense and it will find itself in scoring position a few times, but Brad White’s defense will continue to bend and not break. Commodores find the end zone once and convert one field goal, but nothing more.

Score: Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 10

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Zack Geoghegan

Just go ahead and call this The Devin Leary Game. Kentucky’s transfer quarterback is going to put it together from start to finish against the ‘Dores. More importantly, the Wildcats’ pass-catching core is going to put it together. No more dropped passes or loose fumbles from the wide receivers or tight ends. I’m calling for a four-touchdown performance from Leary, two of those scores going to tight ends. Ray Davis will find his way into the endzone in his homecoming, too.

Also, Vanderbilt is not very good and only seems to be getting worse. The defense has allowed 36 and 40 points over the last two weeks to Wake Forest and UNLV, respectively. There are injuries at key positions. The ‘Dores will have success on offense with AJ Swann tossing the ball to a future NFL player in Will Sheppard — even against a Brad White defense — but they won’t have any answer for the ‘Cats on defense. Kentucky pulls off the win by two touchdowns, although it won’t feel that close throughout the afternoon.

Score: Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 17

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Nick Roush

As we discussed on this week’s 11 Personnel, it feels like this game is going to go in one of two directions for Vanderbilt. The Commodores are going to circle the wagons and respond, or crumble and begin a downward spiral.

The former gives me fear if you’re a person who is considering a wager on the Wildcats. Ultimately, I believe this game is more about Kentucky and their hunger for vengeance following last year’s loss. That’s why I think Kentucky will storm out to a big lead. However, Clark Lea used last year’s game as an example of the resiliency of his program. It doesn’t take much for this offense to create big plays with Sheppard, Jayden McGowan and London Humphreys. The inexperienced pass defense will get leaky in the second half and leave the door open for a late cover by the Commodores.

Prediction: Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 21

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